Magriel-Magriel vs. Davis-Woolsey
How I Almost Beat the Odds
Kit Woolsey, 1983
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From Backgammon Times, Volume 3, Number 2, Summer 1983.
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This interesting game occurred in the first round of the doubles event at the recent Holiday Tournament. My partner was Karen Davis, and our opponents were Paul and Aileen Magriel. The score was 4–4 in a 7-point match.
* * *
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Magriel-Magriel (White) |
Davis-Woolsey (Black) |
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| 1. |
3-1: 8/5, 6/5 |
3-1: 8/5, 6/5 |
| 2. |
2-1: 6/5, 13/11 |
2-2: 6/4(2), 24/22(2) |
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White to play 5-1.
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The split is mandatory. They must fight to prevent us from making our bar point, for if we get this point we will be at a huge advantage in the priming contest.
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Should Black double?
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This would be an early double in money play, as our only potential market losers are 1-1, 3-3, 4-4, 6-6, and 6-2. At this score it is correct to double earlier than usual, because a 1–0 lead in a 3-point match is very small.
Obvious an easy take. Their position is well balanced, and we have not yet consolidated our advantage.
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Black to play 6-4.
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What a terrible roll! This play seems loose, but nothing else is particularly attractive and there are possible big gains if they stay on the bar.
| 5. |
2-1: bar/23*, 24/23 |
4-3: bar/22, 13/9 |
| 6. |
3-2: 11/6 |
6-4: 22/16, 8/4 |
| 7. |
4-3: 13/9*/6 |
5-3: bar/22, 13/8 |
| 8. |
6-4: 23/17*/13 |
6-4: bar/21, 22/16 |
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Should White double?
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Another match score cube action. This would be way too speculative for a redouble in a money game, for their advantage is not so great and it could easily turn around quickly. At this score, however, the redouble does not give away the cube; it puts it out of play for good. Consequently, they should redouble any time they feel they are winning and have a few market losing sequences, so the redouble is quite reasonable.
If we pass we will be behind 6–4 and will have to win the Crawford game and the following game (with gammons of no value) to win the match, with a probability of 25%. Since we felt we had better thana 25% chance to win this game played to a conclusion, we took the double for the match.
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White to play 5-3.
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With nothing constructive to do, they make their run for the roses.
| 10. |
. . . |
6-6: 22/10*, 9/3(2) |
With one roll, we become the favorites!
| 11. |
5-3: —o— |
5-2: 21/16, 10/8 |
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White to play 3-1.
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Risky, but they must attempt to put their game back together. Any other play with the 3 would leave their position a mess and leave us free to improve our position still further.
| 12. |
. . . |
3-1: bar/22*, 8/7 |
| 13. |
4-2: bar/23, 6/2 |
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Black to play 4-3.
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| 13. |
. . . |
4-3: 4/1*, 13/9 |
Going all out for the bar point.
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White to play 5-2.
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Now that they have secured an anchor, they can afford to take some chances to put a board together. Even if they are hit back, this may adjust their timing for a 2-point game.
| 15. |
. . . |
2-1: bar/23*/22* |
| 16. |
6-2: bar/23 |
3-1: 9/8, 16/13 |
| 17. |
6-5: —o— |
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Black to play 2-1.
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| 17. |
. . . |
2-1: 13/11, 22/21 |
Going all out for the prime, but it may have been too big a play. We were certainly punished for it.
| 18. |
2-2: bar/23, 6/4*, 8/4 |
5-4: —o— |
| 19. |
6-1: 23/17*, 13/12* |
4-1: bar/24 |
| 20. |
6-6: 23/17(2), 13/7(2) |
4-2: bar/23 |
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After Black played bar/23.
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What a turnaround. Suddenly we are fighting for our lives.
| 21. |
5-5: 7/2*(2), 17/7 |
4-2: —o— |
| 22. |
5-2: 8/3, 5/3 |
3-2: —o— |
| 23. |
4-3: 17/14*, 12/8 |
2-1: bar/24 |
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After Black played bar/24.
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Whew! Now if we can stay out for a few rolls, we will have a well timed ace-point game. And if they never roll a six, we could even win going frontwards.
| 24. |
5-2: 14/7 |
5-4: —o— |
| 25. |
5-1: 17/11 |
4-2: —o— |
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White to play 6-2.
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On this and the next couple of rolls, they were a little sloppy and failed to clear the bar point when they had convenient opportunities.
| 26. |
. . . |
6-2: —o— |
| 27. |
6-4: 15/5 |
6-1: bar/24 |
| 28. |
5-2: 11/4 |
4-4: —o— |
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White to play 6-3.
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Here is the punishment for not clearing the bar point earlier. Not only do they leave an indirect shot now, but if they roll 2-6, 3-6, 4-6, or 5-6 they will have to leave a direct shot on the next roll.
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White to play 4-2.
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My computer program for bearing in against an ace-point game indicates that 7/3, 5/3 is slightly safer. The cost of a possible double shot with 6-5 is more than compensated for by the immediate stripping of the 5-point in preparation for clearing it.
| 30. |
. . . |
5-4: —o— |
| 31. |
4-4: 4/off(2), 6/2(2) |
5-1: bar/19 |
| 31. |
6-6: 5/off(3), 4/off |
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Black to play 5-4.
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| 32. |
. . . |
5-4: 24/20, 19/14 |
Better than 24/15, as it bears on the 8-point. This is obvious, but when what looks like the critical shot is missed it is very easy to get sloppy in disgust.
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White to play 5-2.
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Definitely safer than taking two men off. Coming down to 2 men on the 3-point gives them a good chance to have almost everybody borne off before they have to leave another shot.
| 33. |
. . . |
4-1: 20/15 |
| 34. |
5-2: 3/off 2/off |
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Black to play 6-6.
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| 34. |
. . . |
6-6: 14/2, 15/3 |
With gammons and backgammons irrelevant, there is no reason to leave the 24-point and pay off to 1-1 and 2-1.
| 35. |
6-6: 3/off, 2/off(3) |
3-2: 7/2 |
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After Black played 7/2.
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At this point Karen reached across to shake their hands, but I stopped her as it ain't over til it's over. Paul announced that the approximate odds were 1500 to 1. This can be seen by examining the necessary parlay:
- They must roll 1-1: 1/36.
- We must hit: 11/36.
- We must win the one checker variation. The general consensus is that this is won about one time in 13 or 14.
Multiplying these probabilities together, we come up with a rather dismal figure for our side. However, . . .
And the crowd roared. In one shake of the dice, the odds had dropped to 45-to-1! Could it happen?
| 36. |
. . . |
2-1: 24/23*, 3/1 |
And the crowd roared louder. It actually could happen!
| 37. |
—o— |
4-3: 7/4, 23/19 |
| 38. |
—o— |
5-3: 19/11 |
| 39. |
—o— |
6-3: 11/5, 24/21 |
| 40. |
—o— |
3-3: 21/9 |
| 41. |
—o— |
6-3: 9/off |
| 42. |
—o— |
3-1: 4/off |
| 43. |
—o— |
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Black to play 5-4.
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| 43. |
. . . |
5-4: 5/off, 6/2 |
It is usually correct to bear off from the rear and avoid leaving gaps, even against a single checker, but this might be an exception. Nack Ballard favored taking a man off the 4-point, pointing out that if we then roll a 2 the position will transpose. We analyzed the position later, and the results were inconclusive.
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Black to play 6-4.
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Now it seems clear to take 2 men off, for we don't want a wasted checker on the ace point. If they fan once more, we can start to see the glimmer of light at the end of a long tunnel.
In one roll, our hopes are dashed. We are back to needing miracles again.
| 45. |
. . . |
4-1: bar/20 |
| 46. |
4-3: 18/11 |
3-3: 20/14*/8 |
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After Black played
20/14*/8.
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And the miracle arrives! We are almost where we were 2 rolls ago.
Oh well. Miracles again.
| 47. |
. . . |
2-2: 8/6, 2/off(3) |
| 48. |
6-2: 16/8 |
6-3: 6/off, 3/off |
| 49. |
1-1: 8/4 |
3-1: 3/off, 1/off |
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After Black played
3/off, 1/off.
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Still possible. They must roll 2-1, and we then need 5-5 or 6-6. Both are 17 to 1 shots, so the parlay comes to 323 to 1. Strange as it seems, we have improved about 5-fold from the original 1500-to-1 position.
In an earlier match this week, Paul had beaten me by rolling 5-5 needing 5-5 or 6-6 on the last roll. Would the backgammon Gods give me a chance for revenge?
| 50. |
6-5: 4/off
White wins 4 points |
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So the 1500-to-1 shot didn't come home, but it sure was exciting.
Result players can have fun with this one: on move 44, had we played 6/off, 5/1, we would have won the game on the actual rolls of the dice. It was that close.
|
