Knowing When to Double Can Earn a Big Reward
Paul Magriel, 1977
New York Times, September 8, 1977
Acapulco ACAPULCO, Mexico — Last week, the World Amateur Backgammon Club, a new California-based organization, held its first tournament here. The event drew a large number of native aficionados and American enthusiasts, including several experts from Texas and California.

Over the last few years, backgammon has become a Mexican pastime. Indeed, the obsession with the game shown in this country is hardly exceeded elsewhere. Mexico’s top-ranked players are beginning to acquire international prestige.

Billy Braniff, regarded as Mexico’s No. 1 player, showed his ability against stiff competition. After defeating Prince Alexis Obolensky and Paul Magriel, he went on to overcome Oswald Jacoby in the finals. Other results were: Chip Reese won the consolation, Elias Leizorek won the last-chance, and Manny Delis beat Patricia O’Farrill to win the intermediate.

The diagrammed position is taken from the 25-point finals between Braniff (Black) and Jacoby (White). Jacoby jumped off to an early 11-to-3 lead. The next game was the turning point of the match. Braniff doubled, and later Jacoby redoubled to 4. Braniff rolled well, the advantage in the game once again changed hands, and the position below was reached.

11
MATCH TO 25
3
Black on roll.

Braniff was now faced with a critical decision: Whether to redouble Jacoby to the 8-level. Both sides have already borne 12 men off; the first to take off his remaining three men would win the game. Clearly, White can complete his bearoff in at most two rolls. Since Black rolls first, he needs to finish bearing off in two rolls to win. Although Black is actually more than a 70 percent favorite to do this, the decision whether to redouble is still extremely close.

In a regular (nonmatch) game, Black would maximize his equity by not redoubling immediately. The proper procedure would be for him to wait one turn and then redouble, unless Black rolled badly or White rolled a double. Fifteen of the numbers Black could roll would allow White to double back immediately.

Rollout 
XG logo
Tom Keith 2013 
Money play
Black owns 4-cube
Black on roll

1296 games with VR
Checker play: 2-ply
Cube play: 3-ply Red

Cube Action Game BG   Equity
No double W
L
.6174
.3826
.0000
.0000
.0000
.0000
+0.2905 x 
Double Take W
L
.6174
.3826
.0000
.0000
.0000
.0000
+0.2509 +0.2509 (0.0396) 
Drop +1.0000

Braniff, an experienced match player, realized that doubling strategy in a match differs from regular doubling strategy. When you are ahead in a match, you should tend to be more conservative with the doubling cube in order to protect your lead. When you are behind, as Braniff was, you should use the doubling cube more aggressively.

In the match, if Braniff doubled to 8 and rolled a bad number, he did not have to worry about being redoubled. Jacoby would have no motivation to redouble to 16, since winning the game at the 8-level would give him a virtually insurmountable match lead.

Braniff made the correct match decision and redoubled Jacoby to 8. The large crowd was excited, since the entire match hinged on the next turn. Braniff’s wise doubling decision paid off. He won the game and so edged ahead in the match, 12 to 11. His luck continued, his lead increased, and he won the match by a substantial margin.

Rollout 
XG logo
Tom Keith 2013 
Match to 25
White 11, Black 3
Black owns 4-cube
Black on roll

1296 games with VR
Checker play: 2-ply
Cube play: 3-ply Red

Cube Action Game BG   Equity
No double W
L
.6174
.3826
.0000
.0000
.0000
.0000
+0.3917 (0.3790) 
Double Take W
L
.6174
.3826
.0000
.0000
.0000
.0000
+0.7707 +0.7707 x 
Drop +1.0000

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