Magriel's NYT Columns |
| Black to play 6-1. |
In order to avoid this Black must either wait until he escapes with a double or else outlast White (by having White break the 12-point first). In either case, Black must prepare to stall as long as possible.
With this in mind, Black rejected playing 7/6, 7/1, making a strong home board. Black realized that by moving both men off his 7-point he would needlessly increase the vulnerability of his two back men. With no spare men in his outer board Black would now be forced to run as soon as he rolled any 6 (except 6-6).
Black anticipated this danger and so played 7/1, 6/5. By leaving a man on the 7-point, Black was employing the standard procedure of “saving a 6.” In other words, Black took the precaution of keeping a 6 to play in reserve.
Black’s reasoning was in the right direction. Unfortunately, Black should have taken the same logic one step further. Black failed to anticipate that 5’s, as well as 6’s, were in short supply.
The correct play is 7/1, 4/3, taking the added precaution of keeping a man on the 6-point and so preserving an extra 5 if needed. In this way Black might have gained additional time and thus minimized the danger to his back runners.
Indeed, in the actual game Black paid dearly for his mistakes. He next rolled 5-2 twice in succession. Because he failed to save 5’s, the second 5-2 forced him to run off the 18-point prematurely. White hit Black with 3-3 and redoubled to win the game.
Rollout
Tom Keith 2013 |
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Money play White owns 2-cube Black rolls 6-1 1296 games with VR Checker play: 2-ply Cube play: 3-ply Red |
6-1: | Game | G | BG | Equity | ||||
1 | 7/6, 7/1 |
W L |
.5210 .4790 |
.0159 .0422 |
.0001 .0011 | −0.1205 | ||
2 | 7/1, 6/5 |
W L |
.4983 .5017 |
.0225 .0758 |
.0001 .0039 | −0.1874 | (0.0669) | Save 6 |
3 | 18/11 |
W L |
.4882 .5118 |
.0324 .0578 |
.0002 .0022 | −0.1891 | (0.0686) | |
4 | 7/1, 4/3 |
W L |
.4636 .5364 |
.0140 .0858 |
.0000 .0038 | −0.2940 | (0.1735) | Save 5+6 |
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