Magriel's NYT Columns |
The diagrammed position occurred there recently in a dramatic high-stakes game during which the lead changed many times.
Black had already redoubled to the eighth level and reached a favorable position when he rolled the “clincher,” 1-1’s.
| Black to play 1-1. |
He played 3/1*, 2/1, and 21/20, closing White out by making the 1-point, and moving his back man one pip forward. Black seemed certain of victory, but disaster struck unexpectedly.
He next rolled 4-4’s and to his horror discovered he could not play the entire roll without breaking his home board: Unfortunately, the man on the 20-point could move forward only one 4 before being blocked by White’s men on the 12-point.
Black, unnerved by this unexpected turn of events, played 20/16, 11/7, and 6/2(2), breaking his 6-point. White then rolled 6-1, reentering and hitting Black on the 7-point. When Black stayed out, White redoubled to 16. Black, with another man exposed on the 16-point, wisely decided to pass, and so cut his loss to eight points.
This tragedy could have been averted if Black had not let down his guard after rolling 1-1’s. The correct play is 3/1*, 2/1, and 11/10 with the last 1.
By keeping his back man on the 21-point, Black could have avoided being blocked by 4-4’s. In fact, all combinations, doubles included, would now play safely. Even though 4-4 was a remote possibility, there was no reason to chance it when a totally risk-free alternative was available.
Rollout
Tom Keith 2013 |
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Money play White owns 8-cube Black rolls 1-1 1296 games with VR Checker play: 2-ply Cube play: 3-ply Red |
1-1: | Game | G | BG | Equity | ||||
1 | 11/10, 3/1*, 2/1 |
W L |
.9817 .0183 |
.6531 .0000 |
.0007 .0000 | +1.6090 | (b) | |
2 | 21/20, 3/1*, 2/1 |
W L |
.9797 .0203 |
.6510 .0001 |
.0008 .0000 | +1.6022 | (0.0068) | (a) |
In the actual game, after misplaying 1-1’s, Black then compounded his error. When he rolled 4-4, he realized his original mistake, but was flustered and so didn’t bother to think through the next play carefully. With 4-4’s, he should have played 11/3 and 6/2(2). By playing with only one blot (exposed man) he would have made White’s winning task much harder.
Rollout
Tom Keith 2013 |
|
Money play White owns 8-cube Black rolls 4-4 1296 games with VR Checker play: 2-ply Cube play: 3-ply Red |
4-4: | Game | G | BG | Equity | ||||
1 | 11/3, 6/2(2) |
W L |
.8930 .1070 |
.3011 .0015 |
.0002 .0000 | +1.0414 | ||
2 | 20/16, 11/7, 6/2(2) |
W L |
.8901 .1099 |
.3001 .0086 |
.0005 .0001 | +1.0281 | (0.0133) |
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