Magriel's NYT Columns |
The diagrammed position is taken from one of the last games of this Gammothon, between top scorers Howard Ehrlich and Alphonse Mekalainas, two of the three holdouts. Ehrlich (Black) has already doubled Mekalainas (White) and has taken four men off. White is sitting on the 2-point, waiting for a last-minute shot to hit Black and salvage the game.
| Black to play 3-1. |
Obviously, Black could simply take two men off by playing 3/off, 1/off. This move, however, would leave Black with a dangerous gap on the 3-point, with this point vacant, Black would have trouble safely clearing his other points. (A gap in the bearoff is considered a defect. The general principle is that gaps should be avoided when possible; when unavoidable, leave them on the higher points.)
The single extra man left on the 5-point is troublesome particularly because it is isolated. Next turn, if Black rolls a 5 or a 6 without a 1, he will be forced to leave a shot. In fact, the majority of Black’s numbers (19 combinations out of 36, to be exact) cause Black to leave a man exposed.
More important, it leaves Black with an even number of men on all his high points. For this reason, this is the safest of the three plays: in fact, only about a quarter of Black’s rolls (10 combinations out of 36) will now force him to leave a shot immediately.
Rollout
Tom Keith 2013 |
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Money play White owns 2-cube Black rolls 3-1 1296 games with VR Checker play: 2-ply Cube play: 3-ply Red |
3-1: | Game | G | BG | Equity | ||||
1 | 3/off, 1/off |
W L |
.7898 .2102 |
.3276 .0000 |
.0107 .0000 | +0.8282 | (a) | |
2 | 6/5, 6/3 |
W L |
.7994 .2006 |
.2582 .0000 |
.0038 .0000 | +0.7702 | (0.0580) | (b) |
3 | 4/3, 4/1 |
W L |
.7678 .2322 |
.2281 .0000 |
.0022 .0000 | +0.6675 | (0.1607) | (c) |
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