Magriel's NYT Columns |
Almost any time of day or night several games can be found in progress. A similar pattern has evolved in the United States; many clubs that in the past were exclusively devoted to bridge now have an active backgammon component.
The diagrammed position occurred during a recent late-night game at the Bridge Club de Paris. Black, an experienced player, went astray when he made a premature hit without analyzing all aspects of the position.
| Black to play 4-2. |
Of course this leaves Black vulnerable with two men open in White’s outfield. White now has several deadly return shots from the bar — that is, combinations that both reenter and hit. Is this risk (11 chances in 30 hits) justified?
The answer is definitely no. First of all, the hit is ineffective: Even if White stays out, Black has a long way to go before reaching a winning position. Black still has to safety his blots and then worry about extricating his two back men on the 24-point. Indeed the 18-point is the vital point to help these two men escape, so giving it up at this stage is actually a serious loss.
Secondly, the hit is wrong because Black has a far better winning method. The correct play is 6/2, 4/2, ignoring White’s blot and patiently making the 2-point. This move puts White in a dilemma. With Black’s strengthened home board, White cannot safely give up his anchor on Black’s 3-point.
Furthermore, he cannot give up his mid-point (the 12-point) without giving Black a double direct shot and also losing control of the outfield. In fact, White, with only one spare man (on the 16-point), is almost out of playable moves. Black, with a spare man on the 13-point, can simply wait for White’s game to go to pieces.
Rollout
Tom Keith 2013 |
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Money play Black owns 2-cube Black rolls 4-2 1296 games with VR Checker play: 2-ply Cube play: 3-ply Red |
4-2: | Game | G | BG | Equity | ||||
1 | 6/2, 4/2 |
W L |
.4441 .5559 |
.1377 .2495 |
.0063 .0237 | −0.0606 | (b) | |
2 | 18/14, 18/16* |
W L |
.4314 .5686 |
.1338 .2653 |
.0075 .0339 | −0.1259 | (0.0653) | (a) |
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