Magriel's NYT Columns |
In other sections: Uli Koch beat Mike Carson in the Consolation; Arthur Dickman won the last chance; Ruth Blasko overcame Angelika Algava in the Intermediate; Paul Pilzer took the beginners; Jason Lester teamed up with Linda Schembre to win the doubles.
In the diagram position, taken from an early round, one player (Black) is well ahead in the race. His only concern at this time is to come home safely.
| Black to play 6-1. |
The correct and safest overall play is 16/9. This moves leaves Black vulnerable to an immediate roll of 4-5 by White, hitting Black’s blot on the 9-point. The likelihood of this happening, however, is small. Only two out of 36 possible rolls hit Black, or, in the language of odds, it is 17-to-1 against White hitting the blot. Even though a 17-to-1 shot is unlikely, why would Black wish to “pay off” to anything, given his strong position?
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Holding the 10-point, 16/10, 11/10, also has a hidden danger that play 16/9 avoids. If Black next rolls a 6-5 or 6-4, he will be forced to slot on the 4-point and leave an embarrassing direct shot.
The final and most important reason for not making the 10-point is that if White reenters on the 4-point, Black will then have trouble bringing the outer board men in safely. In fact, there is a good chance that he will give White a direct shot while trying to clear the 10-point.
Although it is important to be aware of immediate shots, a prudent player will also examine subsequent rolls before determining his best course of action.
Rollout
Tom Keith 2013 |
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Money play White owns 2-cube Black rolls 6-1 1296 games with VR Checker play: 2-ply Cube play: 3-ply Red |
6-1: | Game | G | BG | Equity | ||||
1 | 16/9 |
W L |
.8736 .1264 |
.0983 .0076 |
.0002 .0002 | +0.7955 | (b) | |
2 | 16/10, 11/10 |
W L |
.8536 .1464 |
.1147 .0063 |
.0002 .0001 | +0.7638 | (0.0317) | (a) |
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