Magriel's NYT Columns |
In the diagrammed position, Black missed the opportunity for an unusual play.
| Black to play 4-1. |
Black shortchanged himself by settling for just a simple victory. To extract the most from the position, he should attempt to win a double game, or gammon, from White. If Black closes out one man, he can expect to win easily. But if Black wants to gammon White, he must somehow hit a second man.
The correct play is 11/7, 2/1*.
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To see how the “circle back” might work, consider what happens if White immediately rolls 1-3 or 2-3. He is forced to reenter, hitting Black and simultaneously breaking the 21-point. This gives Black a direct 4-shot at the needed second man.
But Black is not just relying on White’s rolling 1-3 or 2-3. By opening two points in his home board, Black can prolong the game for many rolls. Black will continue to hit White with a single man on his 1- and 2-points. As White reenters he will repeatedly be forced to hit Black back. This gives Black additional time to pick up another man as White breaks the 21-point. In fact, he may even be able to wait for shots as White breaks the 22- and 23-points.
All this may seem like a lot of work for Black. The game is already won, and even with the best play his chance for a gammon is still not great. However, as long as Black maintains a prime, he is in no jeopardy of losing. In effect, he is taking a “free shot” to gain additional points.
Rollout
Tom Keith 2013 |
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Money play White owns 2-cube Black rolls 4-1 5184 games with VR Checker play: 3-ply Cube play: 3-ply |
4-1: | Game | G | BG | Equity | ||||
1 | 11/7, 2/1* |
W L |
.9436 .0564 |
.0643 .0032 |
.0017 .0000 | +0.9352 | (b) | |
2 | 8/7, 8/4 |
W L |
.9493 .0507 |
.0427 .0004 |
.0010 .0000 | +0.9281 | (0.0071) | (a) |
3 | 11/7, 8/7 |
W L |
.9458 .0542 |
.0439 .0005 |
.0010 .0000 | +0.9217 | (0.0135) |
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