Magriel's NYT Columns |
In the diagrammed position, Black is hopelessly far behind in the race. It is vital, therefore, for Black to hit White and prevent White from coming home.
| Black to play 2-1. |
Disappointed, Black may automatically play 13/10, moving closer to White in order to give White only a 1-shot (11 chances out of 36) to hit. Considering White’s strong home board, this certainly seems prudent. However, if Black thinks about his situation carefully, he may realize that he is not interested in decreasing his chances of being hit — but rather in increasing his chances of hitting White later. After all, Black is not likely to be gammoned even if he is hit.
The correct play is 7/4, leaving Black’s blot on the mid-point (13-point). This leaves Black exposed to a direct 4-shot (15 chances in 36), and so at first appears foolhardy because Black is more likely to be hit.
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But by playing correctly 7/4 and staying on the 13-point, Black retains control of his outer board, as well as White’s outer board. As a result, if White is unable to hit Black, he will be left with no safe landing space. Indeed, 15 combinations will force White to leave a direct shot on his next roll because Black exercises control of the 10-, 11-, and 12-points. Thus, Black has created significantly increased winning opportunities by actively looking for rolls that play poorly for White.
Rollout
Tom Keith 2013 |
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Money play Black owns 2-cube Black rolls 2-1 1296 games with VR Checker play: 2-ply Cube play: 3-ply Red |
2-1: | Game | G | BG | Equity | ||||
1 | 7/4 |
W L |
.2281 .7719 |
.0143 .1029 |
.0003 .0004 | −0.5648 | (b) | |
9 | 13/10 |
W L |
.1893 .8107 |
.0122 .0789 |
.0004 .0003 | −0.6401 | (0.0753) | (a) |
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