Magriel's NYT Columns |
One player went astray in the diagrammed position, which occurred in an early round of play. White had already borne off 10 men when he was forced to leave a double shot with two men exposed. Black hit both men and redoubled, which White unwisely accepted.
| Black to play 4-2. |
The correct play is 9/5, 6/4. This move creates a third builder with which to attack White on the 1-point. Black’s overriding concern must be to close White out, not to contain him. Closing out White will make Black a strong favorite (well over 80 percent) to win the game. By contrast, Black’s chances will be considerably reduced if White establishes the 1-point. Indeed, if White stays on the 1-point until Black begins bearing in, then White will have an excellent chance (almost 50 percent) of winning by either hitting a shot or outrolling Black in a straight race.
11/7, 9/7. |
9/5, 6/4. |
- If White stays out, then the correct play gives Black spare men on the 4-, 5-, and 6-points that bear directly on the 1-point. The incorrect play gives Black only two builders. Thus, 9/5, 6/4 gives Black better ammunition with which to attack White and close him out.
- Surprisingly, if White comes in (the more important variation), then the correct play is still superior. Black’s strategy in this case should be to attempt to dislodge White from the 1-point, which is impossible if Black completes his prime. By leaving the 7-point open, Black is preparing for the “trap play.” In other words, he hopes that White will roll a single 6 and be forced to break his anchor on the 1-point, moving one man out. White’s remaining back man will then be isolated and exposed. If Black attacks both of White’s men, and closes him out, he vastly increases his chances of winning the game.
In the actual game, White reentered immediately behind Black’s prime. When Black cleared the bar-point to bear in, White rolled 6-6 to easily win the game and, eventually, the match. White’s poor acceptance of the redouble worked out for him, because of a combination of poor strategy by Black and a fortuitous 6-6.
Rollout
Tom Keith 2013 |
|
Money play White owns 4-cube Black rolls 4-2 1296 games with VR Checker play: 2-ply Cube play: 3-ply Red |
4-2: | Game | G | BG | Equity | ||||
1 | 11/7, 3/1* |
W L |
.7685 .2315 |
.0000 .0244 |
.0000 .0049 | +0.4419 | ||
2 | 11/7, 6/4 |
W L |
.7573 .2427 |
.0000 .0073 |
.0000 .0009 | +0.4378 | (0.0041) | |
3 | 9/5, 6/4 |
W L |
.7517 .2483 |
.0000 .0055 |
.0000 .0008 | +0.4274 | (0.0145) | (b) |
8 | 11/7, 9/7 |
W L |
.7434 .2566 |
.0000 .0104 |
.0000 .0011 | +0.4045 | (0.0374) | (a) |
|
|