| Books |
From Backgammon for Blood, by Bruce Becker
|
|
Should White double to 2? |
What to do when I have a closed board — a prime — and he has a man on the bar? I have taken off two of my men, with thirteen left to bear off.
Should I double? Well, let’s count it out. I need a minimum of seven throws (again not counting on doubles) to bear off. It may even require eight throws, if I have to make a “safe” move to avoid being hit. As for Black, he will probably require two throws to get in and two more to get this man around to his inner board. He probably will also be able to get both his men on the B11 and B8 points in on one throw.
Therefore, the probabilities are that Black will be able to start bearing off on his sixth throw. Consequently, the chances of my getting him on a gammon are not good; against this slight possibility is the larger danger of my having to leave a blot and his hitting it, which could suddenly turn the tables completely. So, in this case, I would throw the cube and hope he refuses it.
Rollout
 Tom Keith 2013 |
|
Money play Centered cube White on roll 1296 games with VR Checker play: 3-ply Cube play: XG Roller |
| Cube Action | Game | G | BG | Equity | |||||
| No double |
W L |
.9826 .0174 |
.1386 .0000 |
.0014 .0000 | +1.1235 |
| |||
| Double | Take |
W L |
.9904 .0096 |
.1273 .0000 |
.0012 .0000 | +2.2117 | +1.0000 | (0.1235) |
|
| Drop | +1.0000 | ||||||||
|
|
