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If white doubles, should black take? In money games, the answer is yes, yet time after time people drop in this position. Sometimes a player will say, “I’d take if I were being doubled from 2 to 4, but not when it’s from 32 to 64.” This kind of specious reasoning is cowardly and exasperating. It is a take from 2 to 4, it is just as much a take from 32 to 64.

How many combinations does white require to bear off both men on this roll? The answer is 26. All 1’s except double 1’s prevent him from coming off — a total of 10 unfavorable combinations. Thus, the odds are 26 to 10, or 13 to 5, in favor of white. The fraction 13 to 5 is less than 3 to 1, and since black is getting 3 to 1 for his additional dollar, he should accept.

This is a basic rule of thumb for accepting doubles. On the other hand, white is perfectly correct in doubling, since he is a 13 to 5 favorite to win.

Rollout  Tom Keith 2013

Money play Centered cube White on roll 1296 games with VR Checker play: 3-ply Cube play: XG Roller

XGID=--B---------------------b-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0

Cube Action			Game	G	BG		Equity
No double		W L	.7222 .2778	.0000 .0000	.0000 .0000		+0.4444	(0.4445)
Double	Take	W L	.7222 .2778	.0000 .0000	.0000 .0000	+0.8889	+0.8889
	Drop					+1.0000

  White should double and Black should take  

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List of Positions from Backgammon, the Cruelest Game

Backgammon, the Cruelest Game (1974), by Barclay Cooke and Jon Bradshaw