“Three Great Games”
Rollout of Game 3, Position 30a
From Backgammon: the Cruelest Game, by Barclay Cooke and Jon Bradshaw

Black doubles to 4.
Should White take?

Should white take? In all money games, the answer is yes. Black can hit with any 2, 3, or 4, which means that 27 shots hit and 9 do not, making him exactly a 3 to 1 favorite. You will recall that 3 to 1 is the dividing line on whether or not one accepts a double. In this instance, white is neither over nor under. But the determining factor here is that if black misses, white has good double-game possibilities, since he has five men off already. But because this was a tournament match, and due perhaps to the score at the time or the psychological blow he had just been dealt, white thought it expedient to drop.

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Tom Keith 2013 
Money play
Black owns 2-cube
Black on roll

1296 games with VR
Checker play: 3-ply
Cube play: XG Roller

Cube Action Game BG   Equity
No double W
+0.5198 (0.1561) 
Double Take W
+0.6759 +0.6759 x  *
Drop +1.0000

  Black should redouble and White should take  

Three Great Games,” Backgammon: the Cruelest Game

Backgammon: the Cruelest Game (1974), by Barclay Cooke and Jon Bradshaw

Backgammon Galore : Books