Forum Archive :
Cube Handling
Endgame closeout: win percentages
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From: |
David Rubin |
Address: |
d-rubin@neiu.edu |
Date: |
7 October 2010 |
Subject: |
Winning percentages with one man closed out |
Forum: |
BGonline.org Forums |
Anybody have handy the winning percentages with one man closed out, and x
men already borne off? E.g., if I am closed out, but I've borne off 8 men,
what are my winning chances?
Assume opponent has perfect board and my remaining checkers are on low
points.
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Chuck Bower writes:
Here's one that's not terribly difficult, but you need to remember a couple
key ones. (I'm using the table on p. 97 of Woolsey's Cube Reference
Positions. All numbers are cubeless, and from the point-of-view of the
person with the (perfect) closed board.)
Cubeless Game
Checkers Off Winning Chances
------------ ---------------
5 off 79%
11 off 24%
Now there are 11 - 5 = 6 intervals between these values and 79% - 24% =
55%. It's pretty close to linear, so each increment is 55% / 6 = 9%.
Outside this range and you have to do a bit more memorization.
Cubeless Game
Checkers Off Winning Chances
------------ ---------------
12 off 17%
13 off 20% (because you can pick up the lone checker that
isn't on the bar)
14 off 8%
With 4, 3, 2, 1, 0 off, the difference (from 79%) goes {6, 5, 4, 2, 2}%.
And 3% gammons if closed-out player has none off.
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Stick writes:
The table below is a summary of one checker closed out at double match
point according to XG 4-ply rollouts with x checkers off for your opponent
and assuming you have the perfect spare distribution of 654.
Number Off Win Percentage
----------- --------------
0 off 98
1 off 96
2 off 94
3 off 90
4 off 85
5 off 78
6 off 70
7 off 61
8 off 51
9 off 42
10 off 32
11 off 24
12 off 17
13 off 22
14 off 8
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Cube Handling
- Against a weaker opponent (Kit Woolsey, July 1994)
- Closed board cube decisions (Dan Pelton+, Jan 2009)
- Cube concepts (Peter Bell, Aug 1995)
- Early game blitzes (kruidenbuiltje, Jan 2011)
- Early-late ratio (Tom Keith, Sept 2003)
- Endgame close out: Michael's 432 rule (Michael Bo Hansen+, Feb 1998)
- Endgame close out: Spleischft formula (Simon Larsen, Sept 1999)
- Endgame closeout: win percentages (David Rubin+, Oct 2010)
- Evaluating the position (Daniel Murphy, Feb 2001)
- Evaluating the position (Daniel Murphy, Mar 2000)
- How does rake affect cube actions? (Paul Epstein+, Sept 2005)
- How to use the doubling cube (Michael J. Zehr, Nov 1993)
- Liveliness of the cube (Kit Woolsey, Apr 1997)
- PRAT--Position, Race, and Threats (Alan Webb, Feb 2001)
- Playing your opponent (Morris Pearl+, Jan 2002)
- References (Chuck Bower, Nov 1997)
- Robertie's rule (Chuck Bower, Sept 2006)
- Rough guidelines (Michael J. Zehr, Dec 1993)
- Tells (Tad Bright+, Nov 2003)
- The take/pass decision (Otis+, Aug 2007)
- Too good to double (Michael J. Zehr, May 1997)
- Too good to double--Janowski's formula (Chuck Bower, Jan 1997)
- Value of an ace-point game (Raccoon+, June 2006)
- Value of an ace-point game (Øystein Johansen, Aug 2000)
- Volatility (Chuck Bower, Oct 1998)
- Volatility (Kit Woolsey, Sept 1996)
- When to accept a double (Daniel Murphy+, Feb 2001)
- When to beaver (Walter Trice, Aug 1999)
- When to double (Kit Woolsey, Nov 1994)
- With the Jacoby rule (KL Gerber+, Nov 2002)
- With the Jacoby rule (Gary Wong, Dec 1997)
- Woolsey's law (PersianLord+, Mar 2008)
- Woolsey's law (Kit Woolsey, Sept 1996)
- Words of wisdom (Chris C., Dec 2003)
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