Cube Handling

 Endgame closeout: win percentages

 From: David Rubin Address: d-rubin@neiu.edu Date: 7 October 2010 Subject: Winning percentages with one man closed out Forum: BGonline.org Forums

```Anybody have handy the winning percentages with one man closed out, and x
men already borne off?  E.g., if I am closed out, but I've borne off 8 men,
what are my winning chances?

Assume opponent has perfect board and my remaining checkers are on low
points.
```

 Chuck Bower  writes: ```Here's one that's not terribly difficult, but you need to remember a couple key ones. (I'm using the table on p. 97 of Woolsey's Cube Reference Positions. All numbers are cubeless, and from the point-of-view of the person with the (perfect) closed board.) Cubeless Game Checkers Off Winning Chances ------------ --------------- 5 off 79% 11 off 24% Now there are 11 - 5 = 6 intervals between these values and 79% - 24% = 55%. It's pretty close to linear, so each increment is 55% / 6 = 9%. Outside this range and you have to do a bit more memorization. Cubeless Game Checkers Off Winning Chances ------------ --------------- 12 off 17% 13 off 20% (because you can pick up the lone checker that isn't on the bar) 14 off 8% With 4, 3, 2, 1, 0 off, the difference (from 79%) goes {6, 5, 4, 2, 2}%. And 3% gammons if closed-out player has none off. ```

 Stick  writes: ```The table below is a summary of one checker closed out at double match point according to XG 4-ply rollouts with x checkers off for your opponent and assuming you have the perfect spare distribution of 654. Number Off Win Percentage ----------- -------------- 0 off 98 1 off 96 2 off 94 3 off 90 4 off 85 5 off 78 6 off 70 7 off 61 8 off 51 9 off 42 10 off 32 11 off 24 12 off 17 13 off 22 14 off 8 ```

### Cube Handling

Against a weaker opponent  (Kit Woolsey, July 1994)
Closed board cube decisions  (Dan Pelton+, Jan 2009)
Cube concepts  (Peter Bell, Aug 1995)
Early game blitzes  (kruidenbuiltje, Jan 2011)
Early-late ratio  (Tom Keith, Sept 2003)
Endgame close out: Michael's 432 rule  (Michael Bo Hansen+, Feb 1998)
Endgame close out: Spleischft formula  (Simon Larsen, Sept 1999)
Endgame closeout: win percentages  (David Rubin+, Oct 2010)
Evaluating the position  (Daniel Murphy, Feb 2001)
Evaluating the position  (Daniel Murphy, Mar 2000)
How does rake affect cube actions?  (Paul Epstein+, Sept 2005)
How to use the doubling cube  (Michael J. Zehr, Nov 1993)
Liveliness of the cube  (Kit Woolsey, Apr 1997)
PRAT--Position, Race, and Threats  (Alan Webb, Feb 2001)
Playing your opponent  (Morris Pearl+, Jan 2002)
References  (Chuck Bower, Nov 1997)
Robertie's rule  (Chuck Bower, Sept 2006)
Rough guidelines  (Michael J. Zehr, Dec 1993)
The take/pass decision  (Otis+, Aug 2007)
Too good to double  (Michael J. Zehr, May 1997)
Too good to double--Janowski's formula  (Chuck Bower, Jan 1997)
Value of an ace-point game  (Raccoon+, June 2006)
Value of an ace-point game  (Øystein Johansen, Aug 2000)
Volatility  (Chuck Bower, Oct 1998)
Volatility  (Kit Woolsey, Sept 1996)
When to accept a double  (Daniel Murphy+, Feb 2001)
When to beaver  (Walter Trice, Aug 1999)
When to double  (Kit Woolsey, Nov 1994)
With the Jacoby rule  (KL Gerber+, Nov 2002)
With the Jacoby rule  (Gary Wong, Dec 1997)
Woolsey's law  (PersianLord+, Mar 2008)
Woolsey's law  (Kit Woolsey, Sept 1996)
Words of wisdom  (Chris C., Dec 2003)