Magriel's NYT Columns |
The game shown in the diagrammed position has reached a critical stage. Black appears to be at a disadvantage because he has two men trapped behind White’s five-point prime (from the 22- to the 18-point) whereas White has only a single man (on the bar) behind Black’s five-point prime (from the 3- to the 7-point).
Furthermore, White is in no immediate danger of breaking his prime because he has spare men to play with in the outfield. Black, on the other hand, is short of time — unless he soon rolls a 6 with which to leap White’s prime, he will be forced to move forward and break up his home-board position. Nevertheless, Black has some compensation, because if he does roll the needed 6 he will not only leap White’s prime but also hit White’s exposed man on the 17-point.
| Black to play 2-1. |
The correct play with the 1 is 3/2. Black’s first priority is to keep White on the bar — Black cannot afford to play 24/23, and so leave a man open on the 2-point. If White reenters and hits this man, Black, with three men back, will have almost no chance to win. Indeed, Black is likely to be gammoned. Playing 24/23 is not nearly as urgent as making the 2-point. Black must attempt to keep White out long enough to roll a 6 and hit a second man of White’s. If he is able to do this, he should then have sufficient time to roll another 1 to move up to the edge of White’s prime.
Many players will focus their attention on the play of the 1 and reach the right decision, 3/2, but then neglect to carefully consider the 2. Indeed, the play of the 2 seems routine — 6/4, maintaining Black’s full prime. However, here’s where the expert will see an opportunity for a subtle alternative.
The correct play is 3/2, 7/5, using the 2 to move a man to the 5-point and so voluntarily break the prime.
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Furthermore, note that the risk of White’s rolling an immediate 1-6 must be completely discounted — 1-6 will win for White in any case, because White can always reenter and play 11/17 to form a winning prime.
Rollout
Tom Keith 2013 |
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Money play Centered cube Black rolls 2-1 1296 games with VR Checker play: 2-ply Cube play: 3-ply Red |
2-1: | Game | G | BG | Equity | ||||
1 | 7/5, 3/2 |
W L |
.3956 .6044 |
.2578 .1460 |
.0073 .0065 | −0.1860 | (b) | |
2 | 6/4, 3/2 |
W L |
.3796 .6204 |
.2385 .1472 |
.0070 .0073 | −0.2574 | (0.0714) | (a) |
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