Magriel's NYT Columns |
In the diagrammed position, Black had doubled several rolls ago but failed to improve his position. Furthermore, the roll of 3-1 is a disappointment — Black had hoped for a 5 with which to hit White’s blot (exposed man) on the 18-point. Indeed, with this roll, Black is unable even to safety his own blot on the 13-point.
| Black to play 3-1. |
Before making this play, however, Black must examine the placement of all of White’s men. Next roll, White has other objectives besides hitting Black — White also wishes to cover his man on the 18-point and so form a strong five-point prime (from the 22-point to the 18-point). This prime would blockade Black’s two back men (on the 23-point) and significantly reduce Black’s chance to win.
Black is aware that to make the 18-point White needs a direct 4. This observation opens up new tactical possibilities. For example, Black might consider leaving his blot on the 13-point. By remaining there, Black puts White in a position in which White needs a direct 4-shot to hit — the same number, 4, that White needs to cover. Black is said to have “duplicated” White’s good numbers: 4’s to hit and 4’s to cover. Notice that if Black plays 13/10 he would allow White to hit with 1’s or to cover with 4’s. Thus, White would have a much better chance for a favorable roll.
Black has an imaginative way of applying the same logic and carrying it one step further. The correct play is 7/4, 5/4, making the 4-point but giving up the 5-point.
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Rollout
Tom Keith 2013 |
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Money play Centered cube Black rolls 3-1 1296 games with VR Checker play: 2-ply Cube play: 3-ply Red |
3-1: | Game | G | BG | Equity | ||||
1 | 13/10, 7/6 |
W L |
.4880 .5120 |
.1681 .1476 |
.0170 .0068 | −0.0290 | (a) | |
2 | 13/12, 7/4 |
W L |
.4761 .5239 |
.1434 .1848 |
.0112 .0105 | −0.1222 | (0.0932) | |
3 | 7/4, 5/4 |
W L |
.4759 .5241 |
.1437 .1896 |
.0111 .0108 | −0.1275 | (0.0985) | (b) |
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