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From Backgammon for Blood, by Bruce Becker
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| White to play 4-3. |
For the 4-3 throw, you should bring two men from B12 to the W9 and W10 points.
Here there are eleven ways in which you can be hit: 2-2, 3-3, 4-4, 6-2, 2-6, 6-3, 3-6, 5-4, 4-5, 5-3, and 3-5; two of them (the 2-2 and 3-3 throws) are really better for your opponent to play otherwise and not hit you. Here too, should you not be hit, on your next throw anything except a 5-2 will allow you to make a valuable point.
Some authors recommend making your 4-3 move as 24/20, 13/10. I advise against this for several reasons.
First, I do not want to break up the B1 point this early (for reasons I have already discussed), especially since I would not be gaining any discernible advantage.
Second, the blot on B5 can be hit in twenty-three ways, which not only puts it back on the bar but allows my opponent a builder on this important point. Should the blot be hit, I can then hit my opponent’s blot in twenty-one ways, which is an advantage in the trade-off; however, in either event I have the subsequent problem of how to deal with this man. If I don’t move him, he remains vulnerable, and on a point I don’t want my opponent to build on or cover. And if I do move this man, he really can’t do me any practical good on his next move; his only immediate value, then, is to serve as a threat against my opponent’s bringing a builder down into his outer board. Therefore I don’t like this move as much as the one I recommend for this throw.
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Rollout
 Tom Keith 2013 |
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Money play Centered cube White rolls 4-3 1296 games with VR Checker play: 3-ply Cube play: XG Roller |
| 4-3: | Game | G | BG | Equity | ||||
| 1 | 13/10, 13/9 |
W L |
.4988 .5012 |
.1572 .1405 |
.0081 .0077 | +0.0178 |
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| 2 | 24/20, 13/10 |
W L |
.5019 .4981 |
.1422 .1405 |
.0070 .0072 | +0.0062 | (0.0116) | Alt |
| 3 | 24/21, 13/9 |
W L |
.4987 .5013 |
.1404 .1354 |
.0073 .0065 | −0.0040 | (0.0218) | |
| 4 | 24/21, 24/20 |
W L |
.4984 .5016 |
.1246 .1349 |
.0063 .0049 | −0.0098 | (0.0276) | |
| 5 | 24/20, 6/3 |
W L |
.4767 .5233 |
.1232 .1529 |
.0055 .0074 | −0.1088 | (0.1266) |
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