| Books |
From Backgammon, the Cruelest Game, by Barclay Cooke and Jon Bradshaw
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11
MATCH TO 15 11 |
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Should Black double to 4? |
[The problem in the book had the cube at 1, the score 13–13, and was played without the Crawford rule. It has been recast here to a score of 11–11 with the cube at 2.]
Black is vulnerable to losing a gammon and the match if he does not hit one of white’s two blots. He has been in danger of losing a double game throughout, but now he unexpectedly finds himself a 5 to 4 favorite to win the match if he doubles. Since black will in all probability lose a gammon if he misses, he has nothing to lose here by doubling. He might just as well lose 8 as 4, since either loss will cost him the match.
This is the kind of situation in which the thoughtless player will not consider a double, since he is so relieved at the possibility of saving a double game, but this is specious reasoning. Failing to double at this critical juncture is a deplorable blunder; it is tantamount to losing by default. This is his opportunity to win at no extra risk to himself; therefore black must double.
Rollout
 Tom Keith 2013 |
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Match to 15 Black 11, White 11 Black owns 2-cube Black on roll 1296 games with VR Checker play: 3-ply Cube play: XG Roller |
| Cube Action | Game | G | BG | Equity | |||||
| No double |
W L |
.5568 .4432 |
.0000 .2197 |
.0000 .0804 | −0.1194 | (0.5754) | |||
| Double | Take |
W L |
.5769 .4231 |
.0000 .2665 |
.0000 .1071 | +0.4560 | +0.4560 |
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| Drop | +1.0000 | ||||||||
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