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From Better Backgammon, by Tim Holland
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| White to play 6-6. |
The correct move is to make your 1 point with your 2 men from Black’s 12 point hitting Black’s blot. If Black does not enter on his roll (25 to 11 against), you hope to pick up his additional blot on his 4 point or perhaps close your board. If you are able to hit a second blot, you would then probably have the opportunity to escape and move around the board before Black is able to enter his men. You might even, as mentioned above, close your board. Then assuming you could escape from Black’s home board without having to open your home board, you would most likely win a gammon.
If Black enters, but is not able to make his 4 point (only 2 and 2, 2 and 3, 2 and 4 can accomplish this), you will still have a chance to hit the blot there. Failing this, or including it, you will be able to hit his blot on your 2 point (or your bar in the event his roll is 2 and 5 and he elects to move to your bar point). If Black rolls 2 and 6, he will be forced to leave an additional blot.
Alternatively, had you made your bar and 2 points, thus making a prime, Black would have 28 out of 36 chances to make his 4 point. If he succeeded in doing that, his position would be so strong that unless you were able to escape with a man on your next roll (2 and 6 only), or roll double 1s or 2s which would allow you to move to Black’s 3 point, he should redouble and you should decline. Note: assuming that you made the prime and that Black then made his 4 points, there are only 7 numbers that you could roll that would not force you to break your prime — double 1s 2s, 6, 5, 2 and 6, and 2 and 1.
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Rollout
 Tom Keith 2013 |
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Money play Black owns 2-cube White rolls 6-6 1296 games with VR Checker play: 3-ply Cube play: XG Roller |
| 6-6: | Game | G | BG | Equity | ||||
| 1 | 13/1*, 8/2(2) |
W L |
.5864 .4136 |
.4382 .1182 |
.0048 .0081 | +0.3627 |
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| 2 | 13/1*(2) |
W L |
.5921 .4079 |
.4384 .0931 |
.0036 .0045 | +0.3626 | (0.0001) |
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