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From Better Backgammon, by Tim Holland
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| White to play 4-1. |
The correct play is to move from Black’s bar point to Black’s 12 point. The reason that you have exposed your blot to double 6s is that this number will probably win the game for Black unless he is forced to hit you in his mad dash around the board. If he is forced to hit, you then will have 11 combinations out of 36 that will hit his blot on his 5 point, thus reestablishing your position as a big favorite to win.
The second reason you must move to Black’s 12 point rather than to his 11 point and use the 1 to move from White’s 3 point to White’s 2 point is to protect against Black’s roll of 6 and 1, 6 and 2, 6 and 3, 6 and 4. If Black were to roll any of those numbers, he would move to your bar with his 6 and move the other number in his inner board. In order to hit his blot on your bar you would then need to roll a 7 (6 combinations). By being on Black’s 12 point, assuming any of the aforementioned rolls, the minimum number of chances you would have to hit would be 12. In the event Black rolls 6 and 1 or 6 and 2 and moves to your 8 point or 9 point, you would have 15 chances; with 6 and 3, 14 chances — certainly far better than the 7 chances offered by staying on Black’s 11 point.
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Rollout
 Tom Keith 2013 |
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Money play Black owns 2-cube White rolls 4-1 1296 games with VR Checker play: 3-ply Cube play: XG Roller |
| 4-1: | Game | G | BG | Equity | ||||
| 1 | 18/14, 3/2 |
W L |
.7412 .2588 |
.0192 .0021 |
.0004 .0000 | +0.4228 |
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| 2 | 18/13 |
W L |
.7432 .2568 |
.0186 .0031 |
.0004 .0000 | +0.4180 | (0.0048) |
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| 3 | 18/14, 4/3 |
W L |
.7076 .2924 |
.0157 .0016 |
.0003 .0000 | +0.3398 | (0.0830) |
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