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The correct play is to move from Black’s bar point to Black’s 11 point, and from White’s 3 point to White’s 2 point.

In contrast to Position 26, a roll of double 6s for Black will not make him a favorite to win unless he is able to hit your blot.

Assuming the worst — Black’s roll of double 6s — and assuming that he moves one man from White’s 1 point to Black’s 6 point and 1 man from White’s 1 point to White’s bar, you will still be favored to win in a race, plus the fact that you still will have the chance of hitting Black’s blot on your bar by rolling a 7.

Now let’s consider what will happen in the more likely even of Black’s rolling 6 and 5, 6 and 4, 6 and 3, 6 and 2, or 6 and 1.

With any of these rolls Black would be forced to move one man from White’s 1 point to White’s bar. Regardless of where Black chooses to move the remainder of his roll you will find that there is no number that you could roll that would not either bring your man on Black’s 11 point to safety or that would not be able to hit either Black’s blot in your outer board or his blot on your 1 point. Assuming the worst, the roll with which you hit Black’s blot on your 1 point (leaving a blot of your own), your chances are still 25 to 11 not to be hit. Even if you were hit, you would still be favored to win.

Rollout  Tom Keith 2013

Money play Black owns 2-cube White rolls 4-1 1296 games with VR Checker play: 3-ply Cube play: XG Roller

XGID=-bBDDBB-----------Aaddbb--:1:-1:1:41:0:0:0:0

	4-1:		Game	G	BG	Equity
1	18/14, 3/2	W L	.9163 .0837	.1228 .0012	.0029 .0000	+0.9278
2	18/13	W L	.8975 .1025	.1226 .0014	.0033 .0000	+0.8846	(0.0432)
3	18/14, 4/3	W L	.9028 .0972	.1079 .0017	.0026 .0000	+0.8804	(0.0474)

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List of Positions from Better Backgammon

Better Backgammon (1974), by Tim Holland