| Books |
From Better Backgammon, by Tim Holland
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| White to play 6-1. |
At this point Black will be forced to break his prime with any roll except double 6s or 6 and 1 (11 to 1). If he were forced to break badly (this would happen with rolls such as double 2s, 3s, 4s, 5s, 5 and 4, 5 and 3, 6 and 5, etc.), you should redouble on the assumption that you will either escape with a 6 or be able to maintain your prime if you roll low numbers, and because Black will be weakened even more on his next roll.
Now lets see what happens with the safe play of moving from White’s 11 point to White’s 5 point (again assuming that Black does not roll a 6). He will still be forced to advance in his board, but now you will not have 29 out of 36 chances to make a prime — only double 3s (1 out of 26). True, Black could still lose the game, even if you don’t make the prime, but the object of this discussion is to show that if you must assume that certain rolls cannot occur if you are to have any chance of winning then you must make your moves based on that assumption and be able to take maximum advantage.
Rollout
 Tom Keith 2013 |
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Money play White owns 2-cube White rolls 6-1 1296 games with VR Checker play: 3-ply Cube play: XG Roller |
| 6-1: | Game | G | BG | Equity | ||||
| 1 | 13/7, 11/10 |
W L |
.7321 .2679 |
.1068 .0445 |
.0036 .0022 | +0.8454 |
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