Position 45a, page 81
From Better Backgammon, by Tim Holland

White to play 4-3.

The correct move is to make White’s 2 point. By putting Black on the rim, it may take him several rolls to enter. This will prevent him from improving his board.

In order to determine what play one should make, you must understand the play’s probable effect. In Position 45, the play of not hitting causes your opponent to destroy his board. In 45a, by hitting, you prevent your opponent from strengthening his position.

In both cases, “the probable effects” are advantageous to your cause.

6/2*, 5/2  *
14/10, 5/2* x
Rollout 
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Tom Keith 2013 
Money play
Black owns 2-cube
White rolls 4-3

1296 games with VR
Checker play: 3-ply
Cube play: XG Roller
XGID=-baBBCCBB-----Ab-c-da-b---:1:-1:1:43:0:0:0:0

4-3: Game BG   Equity
1 14/10, 5/2* W
L
.8169
.1831
.3957
.0054
.0486
.0002
+0.9926 x 
2 6/2*, 5/2 W
L
.8112
.1888
.4049
.0019
.0507
.0001
+0.9917 (0.0009)  *
3 14/11, 6/2* W
L
.8156
.1844
.3929
.0064
.0496
.0002
+0.9879 (0.0047) 
4 7/4, 7/3 W
L
.8139
.1861
.3319
.0047
.0322
.0002
+0.9103 (0.0823) 

Previous Position
No. 45, page 80
Next Position
No. 46, page 82

List of Positions from Better Backgammon

Better Backgammon (1974), by Tim Holland

Backgammon Galore : Books