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The correct play is to make White’s 4 point, hitting Black’s blot. If you were to make your bar point and 5 point, either or both of your two totally exposed men on Black’s bar and 4 points would surely be hit. By hitting Black on White’s 4 point, several things may occur:

1. Black will fail to enter; this will happen 9 out of 36 times (the rolls of double 3s, 4s, 6s, 6 and 4, 6 and 3, and 4 and 3). If this occurs, White should double because he will expect to hit the additional blots of Black’s on Black’s 9 or 11 points, or make additional points in his board.

2. Black will enter (but not with double 1s, 2s, or 5s). Since you have forced him to use one of his dice for this purpose, then it is impossible for him to hit either of your blots without having several blots of his own exposed on your subsequent roll.

3. Black will enter with double 1s, 2s, or 5s. These rolls will make the situation very dangerous for you. However, you will still be better off than if you had not made your 4 point.

Rollout  Tom Keith 2013

Money play Centered cube White rolls 1-1 1296 games with VR Checker play: 3-ply Cube play: XG Roller

XGID=-a-Ba-D-B--BcCa-acAcbA----:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:0

	1-1:		Game	G	BG	Equity
1	6/4*(2)	W L	.6116 .3884	.2703 .1078	.0306 .0054	+0.5157

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List of Positions from Better Backgammon

Better Backgammon (1974), by Tim Holland