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From Better Backgammon, by Tim Holland
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| White to play 5-4. |
The correct play is to make White’s 1 point. You don’t like to give up your 6 point, but unfortunately you must do so. You still have a 5 point board, which should be sufficient to win with in the event you hit one of Black’s blots (you still may be able to hit and remake your 6 point). It appears that Black may have to break on his next roll. Any combination with a 4, 5, or 6 — except double 4s, 5s, or 6s, and 6 and 1 — will leave a blot. Some rolls, such as 4 and 1, 5 and 1, and 4 and 2, will force Black to expose two men.
If you were to have moved your men on Black’s 12 point to your 8 and 9 points, then, when and if Black left a blot on your 12 point, you would have only 6s (or combinations of 6s) to hit with. With the correct play, you greatly increase your chances of hitting. You also (and you should consider this only a fringe benefit, not a determining factor) prevent him from playing double 1s to his advantage.
A quick example of the added rewards of maintaining Black’s 12 point would be in the event of Black’s rolling 6 and 2, 6 and 3, 6 and 4, or 6 and 5. The man which he will be forced to leave on your 12 point will be exposed to 24 chances out of 36 to be hit. If you did not have Black’s 12 point, you would have only 12 chances to hit. In effect, therefore, you would go from a 2 to 1 favorite to hit to a slight underdog. The same holds true (with slight variations) with the other rolls, such as 5 and 2, 5 and 3, 5 and 4, etc.
As for a possible alternate play — for instance, leaving one man on Black’s 12 point instead of breaking your 6 point — you would expose yourself to being hit with an ace. If this occurs, no matter where Black leaves his men, you would no longer be favored to hit. You may fail to enter, and that may be all that your opponent will need to clear his two men.
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Rollout
 Tom Keith 2013 |
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Money play Black owns 2-cube White rolls 5-4 1296 games with VR Checker play: 3-ply Cube play: XG Roller |
| 5-4: | Game | G | BG | Equity | ||||
| 1 | 13/4 |
W L |
.4918 .5082 |
.0679 .0464 |
.0021 .0001 | −0.1469 |
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| 2 | 13/9, 13/8 |
W L |
.4688 .5312 |
.0471 .0117 |
.0014 .0001 | −0.1987 | (0.0518) | |
| 3 | 6/1, 5/1 |
W L |
.4668 .5332 |
.0633 .0686 |
.0018 .0009 | −0.2064 | (0.0595) |
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| 4 | 13/8, 5/1 |
W L |
.4701 .5299 |
.0714 .0773 |
.0021 .0004 | −0.2132 | (0.0663) |
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