Game number 1

Moshe Tissona (0 pts) vs. Jon Royset (0 pts) (Match to 25)

Match Information

Moshe Tissona's rating: 0 (Exp 0)
Jon Royset's rating: 0 (Exp 0)
Date: July 13, 2003
Event: World Championship 2003
Round: Final
Place: Monte Carlo
Annotator: Casper van der Tak, Chuck Bower, Alex Zamanian, Tom Suzanski, Christian Toth and GNU 0.14

Annotation

Casper van der Tak:

Introduction

Tissona makes the bar, Royset answers with a small split, and Tissona with a major split. Royset hits, and a blot-hitting contest ensues in which Tissona may have missed a good opportunity for an unusual hit. The hitting stops for a moment when Tissona makes an advanced anchor, but then Royset hits two of Tissona's checkers. Tissona answers with a useful 44, played in an unusual but strong, tactically motivated manner. He sets up 2s from the bar as a root number for Royset. Royset promptly rolls a two from the bar, but fails to give himself a playable two from the bar should he be hit again. Tissona may have missed a cube opportunity, but hits Royset again. Royset again rolls a two from the bar and his position collapses. Tissona cashes.

Move number 1: Moshe Tissona to play 61

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 167, Jon Royset 167
Position ID: 4HPwATDgc/ABMA Match ID: MAAnAwAAAAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 13/7 8/7

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	13/7 8/7	+0.174
			54.3% 15.6% 0.6% - 45.7% 11.9% 0.4%
	2	2	24/23 24/18	-0.022 ( -0.196)
			50.1% 12.1% 0.5% - 49.9% 14.0% 0.4%
	3	2	24/23 13/7	-0.035 ( -0.209)
			49.0% 13.8% 0.6% - 51.0% 14.0% 0.5%
	4	2	13/6	-0.044 ( -0.218)
			48.8% 13.9% 0.6% - 51.2% 14.5% 0.5%
	5	2	13/7 6/5	-0.075 ( -0.249)
			48.4% 13.4% 0.5% - 51.6% 15.3% 0.9%

Move number 2: Jon Royset to play 51

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 160, Jon Royset 167
Position ID: 4NvgATDgc/ABMA Match ID: cIkmAwAAAAAA

• Jon Royset moves 24/23 13/8

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	24/23 13/8	-0.208
			45.1% 11.5% 0.4% - 54.9% 16.2% 0.5%
	2	2	13/8 6/5	-0.262 ( -0.054)
			43.9% 11.3% 0.3% - 56.1% 16.9% 0.9%
	3	2	13/7	-0.312 ( -0.104)
			42.3% 11.1% 0.3% - 57.7% 16.9% 0.9%
	4	2	24/23 8/3	-0.410 ( -0.202)
			40.8% 10.3% 0.3% - 59.2% 20.1% 0.9%
	5	2	8/3 6/5	-0.449 ( -0.241)
			40.5% 9.8% 0.3% - 59.5% 20.6% 1.7%

Move number 3: Moshe Tissona to play 42

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 160, Jon Royset 161
Position ID: 4PPgASjg2+ABMA Match ID: MAEqAwAAAAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 24/20 13/11

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	24/20 13/11	+0.153
			54.1% 14.4% 0.5% - 45.9% 11.9% 0.3%
	2	2	13/7	+0.151 ( -0.002)
			53.8% 15.5% 0.4% - 46.2% 12.3% 0.4%
	3	2	24/22 24/20	+0.132 ( -0.021)
			53.9% 13.5% 0.5% - 46.1% 12.2% 0.3%
	4	2	8/4 6/4	+0.129 ( -0.024)
			52.6% 16.8% 0.6% - 47.4% 12.7% 0.5%
	5	2	24/18	+0.103 ( -0.050)
			53.4% 13.0% 0.5% - 46.6% 12.8% 0.3%

Annotation

Casper van der Tak: 24/20 13/11 is my play also, but the very quiet alternative of 13/7 is not bad at all. Making the 4-point leaves too many shots and is not as good as either of these alternatives.

Kit Woolsey: Splitting is more dangerous when the opponent has the fourth checker on the eight point, since he will be better placed to attack. Still, it looks like the best of the alternatives.

Move number 4: Jon Royset to play 51

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 154, Jon Royset 161
Position ID: 4NvIASHg8+ABKA Match ID: cIkmAwAAAAAA

• Jon Royset moves 13/8 6/5*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	13/8 6/5*	-0.266
			43.6% 11.7% 0.4% - 56.4% 17.1% 0.7%
	2	2	6/5* 6/1*	-0.294 ( -0.028)
			43.4% 12.0% 0.4% - 56.6% 18.5% 0.9%
	3	2	23/22 13/8	-0.348 ( -0.082)
			41.4% 8.9% 0.2% - 58.6% 15.8% 0.4%
	4	2	23/22 6/1*	-0.375 ( -0.109)
			40.8% 9.2% 0.2% - 59.2% 16.7% 0.6%
	5	2	24/23 13/8	-0.415 ( -0.149)
			38.8% 9.0% 0.2% - 61.2% 14.4% 0.4%

Move number 5: Moshe Tissona to play 41

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 159, Jon Royset 155
Position ID: 0PPBASjg28gBUA Match ID: MAEmAwAAAAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves bar/20*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/20*	+0.432
			60.3% 18.3% 1.0% - 39.7% 9.2% 0.2%
	2	2	bar/21 11/10	+0.038 ( -0.394)
			51.3% 14.8% 0.7% - 48.7% 14.7% 0.5%
	3	2	bar/24 13/9	+0.023 ( -0.409)
			50.4% 16.3% 0.7% - 49.6% 15.3% 0.8%
	4	2	bar/24 11/7	+0.010 ( -0.422)
			50.4% 15.1% 0.5% - 49.6% 15.0% 0.5%
	5	2	bar/21 24/23	+0.007 ( -0.425)
			50.8% 13.8% 0.5% - 49.2% 15.0% 0.4%

Move number 6: Jon Royset to play 65

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 154, Jon Royset 175
Position ID: 4NvIASHg+eAAVA Match ID: cAk3AwAAAAAA

• Jon Royset moves bar/14*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/14*	-0.168
			46.5% 11.0% 0.4% - 53.5% 15.9% 0.6%
	2	2	bar/20 8/2	-0.566 ( -0.398)
			37.0% 9.0% 0.3% - 63.0% 22.7% 1.3%
	3	2	bar/20 13/7	-0.574 ( -0.406)
			37.0% 8.8% 0.3% - 63.0% 22.6% 1.5%

Move number 7: Moshe Tissona to play 42

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 168, Jon Royset 164
Position ID: 4PngAijg2+CAUA Match ID: MAEqAwAAAAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves bar/21 13/11*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/21 13/11*	+0.314
			57.1% 18.1% 1.1% - 42.9% 10.4% 0.3%
	2	2	bar/23 24/20	+0.237 ( -0.077)
			55.3% 14.7% 0.5% - 44.7% 8.4% 0.1%
	3	2	bar/21 24/22	+0.045 ( -0.269)
			50.9% 14.0% 0.7% - 49.1% 12.5% 0.4%
	4	2	bar/21 20/18	+0.013 ( -0.301)
			50.5% 14.5% 0.8% - 49.5% 14.6% 0.5%
	5	2	bar/23 6/2*	-0.001 ( -0.315)
			49.9% 14.0% 0.6% - 50.1% 13.7% 0.5%

Move number 8: Jon Royset to play 51

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 162, Jon Royset 175
Position ID: 4NvIgCLg+eAAVA Match ID: cIkmAwAAAAAA

• Jon Royset moves bar/20 6/5*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/20 6/5*	-0.254
			45.5% 11.4% 0.5% - 54.5% 19.5% 1.3%
	2	2	bar/20 23/22	-0.337 ( -0.082)
			42.9% 9.8% 0.4% - 57.1% 18.6% 0.9%
	3	2	bar/20 24/23	-0.392 ( -0.137)
			41.0% 9.6% 0.3% - 59.0% 17.5% 0.7%
	4	2	bar/20 8/7	-0.456 ( -0.202)
			40.7% 9.9% 0.4% - 59.3% 22.1% 1.5%
	5	2	bar/24 13/8	-0.491 ( -0.237)
			38.5% 8.7% 0.2% - 61.5% 18.9% 1.0%

Move number 9: Moshe Tissona to play 31

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 167, Jon Royset 169
Position ID: 0PnggCjg28gAUQ Match ID: MIElAwAAAAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves bar/22 21/20*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	bar/22 6/5*	+0.294
			56.3% 20.1% 1.6% - 43.7% 13.2% 0.7%
•	2	2	bar/22 21/20*	+0.283 ( -0.012)
			55.7% 17.8% 1.1% - 44.3% 9.7% 0.2%
	3	2	bar/21	+0.041 ( -0.253)
			50.4% 14.1% 0.6% - 49.6% 11.9% 0.3%
	4	0	bar/22 24/23	-0.012 ( -0.306)
			49.4% 14.9% 0.9% - 50.6% 14.7% 0.5%
	5	0	bar/22 11/10	-0.038 ( -0.332)
			48.7% 15.0% 0.9% - 51.3% 15.3% 0.6%

Annotation

Casper van der Tak: After some early sparring, with mostly automatic decisions, comes the second real decision of the game. Which 5-point should one fight for? Normally you'd like to play B/22 21/20* rather than B/22 6/5*. Both plays fight for key points and are therefore positionally attractive, but B/22 21/20* gains more pips in the race and does not leave hit and cover numbers. This normally would more than compensate for bringing a checker from the stack on the 6-point into play.

However, after Tissona's B/22 21/20* all numbers except 66 and 21 play OK for Royset, either making the 20-point anchor or hitting Tissona's blot on the 11-point. Hitting 6/5* has the advantage of taking away Royset's good entering 6s, and 66, 61, 62, 63 and 64 become so awful that Tissona would have a very strong cube after either of these replies. This is a tactical justification for B/22 6/5*.

The normal tactical drawback of 6/5*, the hit-and-covers is leaves, is mitigated by Royset's poor distribution up front which makes it difficult for him to fully benefit from these.

A strategic justification for 6/5* is that if both players make their 20-anchors a lot of the value of the made bar-point would have been negated, whereas if both make their 5-point Tissona would have a big advantage thanks to the better prime.

I think Tissona made a slight error here and would have played B/22 6/5* myself. I also predict that the normal B/22 21/20* play will be best if you do either of the following:

a) Move the checker on the 11-point to the 10-point or midpoint
b) Give Tissona a made 11-point by moving a checker from the 6 to the 11-point
c) Take away Tiossona's bar-point

Kit Woolsey: Interesting. I'm sure that I would have hit on the 20 point in two seconds at the table, although I can see the arguments for hitting on the five point -- better distribution, race considerations not too important with both sides having several checkers back, and a potential big gain if red can't hit back. Still, it is hard to imagine giving the opponent a free shot to make his five point.

Move number 10: Jon Royset to play 61

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 163, Jon Royset 189
Position ID: 4NvIgCTgfHBAVA Match ID: cAknAwAAAAAA

• Jon Royset moves bar/24 20/14*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	bar/24 20/14*	-0.163
			47.2% 11.8% 0.6% - 52.8% 18.0% 1.2%
	2	0	bar/24 8/2	-0.589 ( -0.426)
			38.4% 8.6% 0.3% - 61.6% 26.0% 2.6%
	3	0	bar/24 13/7	-0.613 ( -0.450)
			39.0% 7.9% 0.3% - 61.0% 27.4% 3.2%

Move number 11: Moshe Tissona to play 54

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 177, Jon Royset 182
Position ID: 4HxwATTg22BAUg Match ID: MIEyAwAAAAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves bar/20 22/18

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	bar/20 24/20	+0.366
			58.1% 17.7% 1.1% - 41.9% 8.1% 0.2%
•	2	2	bar/20 22/18	+0.348 ( -0.018)
			57.4% 18.4% 1.3% - 42.6% 8.8% 0.2%
	3	2	bar/20 6/2*	+0.232 ( -0.134)
			54.8% 17.3% 1.2% - 45.2% 10.7% 0.3%
	4	2	bar/21 20/15	+0.200 ( -0.165)
			54.0% 19.4% 1.7% - 46.0% 13.5% 0.6%
	5	2	bar/16	+0.146 ( -0.219)
			52.8% 18.4% 1.5% - 47.2% 13.7% 0.7%

Annotation

Kit Woolsey: I don't see the advantage of leaving the shot on the bar point as well as leaving a checker back on the 24 point. The simpler B/20, 24/20 looks better to me. Tissona isn't going to be in a hurry to abandon the 20 point anchor, so a spare there is strong.

Move number 12: Jon Royset to play 65

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 168, Jon Royset 182
Position ID: 4NtgkCHgfHABNA Match ID: cAk3AwAAAAAA

• Jon Royset moves 13/7* 6/1*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	14/9 13/7*	-0.401
			41.9% 9.9% 0.4% - 58.1% 20.8% 1.8%
•	2	2	13/7* 6/1*	-0.405 ( -0.004)
			41.7% 9.6% 0.3% - 58.3% 20.8% 1.5%
	3	2	13/7*/2	-0.428 ( -0.028)
			40.9% 9.3% 0.3% - 59.1% 20.7% 1.4%
	4	2	14/8 13/8	-0.454 ( -0.053)
			39.8% 8.5% 0.2% - 60.2% 18.8% 0.9%
	5	2	14/3	-0.456 ( -0.056)
			40.0% 8.5% 0.2% - 60.0% 19.5% 1.2%

Annotation

Casper van der Tak: I like 14/9 13/7* better than the hit on the ace which throws away the last spare on the 6-point. The double hit has the advantage of reducing the number of return hits, but the positional price paid is high.

Move number 13: Moshe Tissona to play 44

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 176, Jon Royset 171
Position ID: wfpgATTg22DAYA Match ID: MAEyAwAAAAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves bar/21(2) 6/2*(2)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/21(2) 6/2*(2)	+0.786
			65.5% 27.1% 2.5% - 34.5% 7.2% 0.2%
	2	2	bar/21(2) 8/4(2)	+0.780 ( -0.006)
			65.3% 25.5% 2.1% - 34.7% 7.2% 0.2%
	3	2	bar/21(2) 13/9(2)	+0.763 ( -0.023)
			65.8% 23.2% 1.8% - 34.2% 7.2% 0.1%
	4	2	bar/21(2) 20/16(2)	+0.723 ( -0.062)
			65.7% 23.1% 1.6% - 34.3% 8.4% 0.2%
	5	2	bar/21(2) 7/3(2)	+0.495 ( -0.291)
			60.1% 23.0% 1.8% - 39.9% 8.7% 0.2%

Annotation

Casper van der Tak: Making the 2-point on Royset's head shows excellent judgment. The play has several advantages:

- Reducing the number of Royset's rolls that can be used to hide or cover the blots;
- Bringing some of the spare checkers on the 6-point into play
- Setting up bad entering numbers. If you have the chance to put your opponent on the bar, it is a good habit to checker how his numbers corresponding to your home board points play. Here: how do his 6s and 2s play after Tissona makes the 2-point? 6s will be playable, but Royset will only have terrible entering 2s.

It is an unusual play (making the 9 or 4 would be more common) but very strong.

Kit Woolsey: Interesting. For me, making the two point would be the reflex play. I would not think that making the nine point or the four point would be more common. I can see the potential long term defects of making the two point, which are important in this sort of position where both sides have many men back and the game is likely to go on for a while, but I believe the possible short term gains easily outweigh this.

Move number 14: Jon Royset to play 52

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 160, Jon Royset 173
Position ID: httgwAbB+mABWA Match ID: cIkqAwAAAAAA

• Jon Royset moves bar/20 8/6

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	bar/20 24/22	-0.811
			37.4% 8.2% 0.2% - 62.6% 32.0% 4.1%
•	2	2	bar/20 8/6	-0.833 ( -0.022)
			36.0% 8.1% 0.2% - 64.0% 29.6% 4.1%
	3	2	bar/20 13/11	-1.072 ( -0.262)
			30.2% 5.6% 0.2% - 69.8% 41.6% 12.4%

Annotation

Casper van der Tak: I have a slight preference for B/20 24/22. Although risky, this tries to fight for the advanced anchor that Royset badly needs, and also leaves Royset with some reasonable entering 2s should Tissona hit again. Tissona has only 9 checkers up front, so the risk of getting blitzed is not too great.

Tissona should double either play.

Kit Woolsey: I like Royset's play. It isn't clear where he wants the back checkers, but unstacking the heavy eight point and getting a badly needed spare onto the six point is a definite improvement. Also, it isn't such a good idea to leave a total of six blots strewn around the board.

Move number 15: Moshe Tissona to play 64

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 160, Jon Royset 166
Position ID: wfVggTCG22DABg Match ID: MAEzAwAAAAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 21/11*

Alert: missed double ( -0.117)! [bad]

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		+0.544	(Money: +0.534)
	64.0% 29.6% 4.1% - 36.0% 8.1% 0.2%
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.833
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	(+0.167)
3.	No double	+0.716	(-0.117)
Proper cube action:		Double, take

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	21/11*	+0.755
			65.6% 27.6% 3.1% - 34.4% 6.9% 0.2%
	2	2	13/9 13/7	+0.475 ( -0.280)
			59.5% 21.8% 1.5% - 40.5% 8.3% 0.1%
	3	2	20/16 20/14	+0.380 ( -0.375)
			58.4% 20.8% 1.7% - 41.6% 11.3% 0.3%
	4	2	20/10	+0.361 ( -0.394)
			57.5% 21.6% 2.0% - 42.5% 11.3% 0.4%
	5	2	21/15 20/16	+0.287 ( -0.468)
			56.6% 21.9% 2.2% - 43.4% 15.1% 0.8%

Annotation

Casper van der Tak: Tissona should double because Royset's position is so disjointed and because Royset will continue to have difficulties playing his numbers. Several hitting and point sequences are very strong and could lose Tissona's market by a lot.

Hitting 21/11* is clear, sending another checker back and gaining in the race. And who knows, Royset may roll another 2.

Move number 16: Jon Royset to play 21

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 150, Jon Royset 177
Position ID: htvIgAXB9WBAWA Match ID: cAklAwAAAAAA

• Jon Royset moves bar/24 6/4*

Alert: unlucky roll! ( -0.350)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	bar/22	-1.000
			33.0% 7.2% 0.3% - 67.0% 36.8% 6.8%
	2	2	bar/24 8/6	-1.000 ( +0.000)
			30.1% 6.3% 0.2% - 69.9% 35.6% 5.6%
•	3	2	bar/24 6/4*	-1.000 ( +0.000)
			32.9% 5.9% 0.2% - 67.1% 37.9% 9.0%
	4	2	bar/24 13/11	-1.140 ( -0.140)
			28.7% 5.1% 0.2% - 71.3% 44.6% 13.6%

Annotation

Casper van der Tak: And another entering 2! I'd play B/22 again, but it should not matter, since after either play it is both a double and a drop.

Move number 17: Moshe Tissona doubles to 2

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 154, Jon Royset 174
Position ID: kfVgQDiG28iAQQ Match ID: MBkgAwAAAAAA

• Jon Royset rejects

Cube decision

Rollout cubeless equity

+0.708

(Money: +0.703)

Cubeful equities:

Double, pass

+1.000

Double, take

+1.146

(+0.146)

No double

+0.896

(-0.104)

Proper cube action:

Double, pass

Rollout details

	Win	W g	W bg		Lose	L g	L bg	Cubeless	Cubeful
Centered 1-cube	66.8%	36.7%	6.4%	-	33.2%	6.1%	0.2%	+0.708	+0.896
Standard error	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	-	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.011	0.022
Player Jon Royset owns 2-cube	66.9%	36.5%	6.4%	-	33.1%	5.9%	0.2%	+1.430	+1.146
Standard error	0.4%	0.4%	0.4%	-	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%	0.028	0.036

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175229184 and quasi-random dice

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Annotation

Bots: According to GNU 0.14 it is a clear Double/Pass whereas Snowie 4 says it is borderline (+0.002) take.

Moshe Tissona wins 1 point

Game statistics for game 1
Player	Moshe Tissona	Jon Royset
Checker play statistics
Total moves	8	8
Unforced moves	8	8
Moves marked very good	0	0
Moves marked good	0	0
Moves marked interesting	0	0
Moves unmarked	8	7
Moves marked doubtful	0	1
Moves marked bad	0	0
Moves marked very bad	0	0
Error rate (total)	-0.030 ( -0.096%)	-0.026 ( -0.083%)
Error rate (pr. move)	-0.004 ( -0.012% )	-0.003 ( -0.010%)
Chequer play rating	World class	World class
Luck statistics
Rolls marked very lucky	0	0
Rolls marked lucky	0	0
Rolls unmarked	8	7
Rolls marked unlucky	0	1
Rolls marked very unlucky	0	0
Luck rate (total)	+0.438 ( +1.409%)	-0.740 ( -2.380%)
Luck rate (pr. move)	+0.055 ( +0.176%)	-0.093 ( -0.298%)
Luck rating	Good dice, man!	Go to bed
Cube statistics
Total cube decisions	8	9
Close or actual cube decisions	8	1
Doubles	1	0
Takes	0	0
Passes	0	1
Missed doubles around DP	1 (-0.117 ( -0.378%))	0
Missed doubles around TG	0	0
Wrong doubles around DP	0	0
Wrong doubles around TG	0	0
Wrong takes	0	0
Wrong passes	0	0
Error rate (total)	-0.117 ( -0.378%)	0
Error rate (per cube decision)	-0.015 ( -0.047% )	0
Cube decision rating	Intermediate	Supernatural
Overall rating
Error rate (total)	-0.147 ( -0.474%)	-0.026 ( -0.083%)
Error rate (per decision)	-0.009 ( -0.030% )	-0.003 ( -0.009%)
Equivalent Snowie error rate	-9.2	-1.6
Overall rating	Advanced	World class
Actual result	53.22%	46.78%
Luck adjusted result	49.43%	50.57%
Relative FIBS rating	-1.99	1.99

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Output generated Sat Aug 02 14:53:03 2003 by GNU Backgammon 0.14-devel 1.1227 030727 (HTML Export version 1.124)