Game number 4

Moshe Tissona (4 pts) vs. Jon Royset (0 pts) (Match to 25)

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Match Information

Moshe Tissona's rating: 0 (Exp 0)
Jon Royset's rating: 0 (Exp 0)
Date: July 13, 2003
Event: World Championship 2003
Round: Final
Place: Monte Carlo
Annotator: Casper van der Tak, Chuck Bower, Alex Zamanian, Tom Suzanski, Christian Toth and GNU 0.14

Annotation

Casper van der Tak:

Introduction

Royset opens by making the bar, and Tissona brings one down and makes a small split in return. Royset gains a strong advantage by hitting twice in the outfield, but Tissona manages to hit back. A complicated game ensues with many interesting and difficult play decisions. Royset retains an advantage for most of the game, but a 44 by Tissona threatens to turn the game around. Tissona misses a doubling opportunity, and hits loose in his home board, but Royset hits back and eventually escapes while Tissona is still on the bar. Royset cashes and scores his first point.

Move number 1: Jon Royset to play 61

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 167, Jon Royset 167
Position ID: 4HPwATDgc/ABMA Match ID: cAgnA0AAAAAA

• Jon Royset moves 13/7 8/7

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	13/7 8/7	+0.213
			54.3% 15.6% 0.6% - 45.7% 11.9% 0.4%
	2	2	24/23 24/18	+0.014 ( -0.199)
			50.1% 12.1% 0.5% - 49.9% 14.0% 0.4%
	3	2	24/23 13/7	+0.005 ( -0.208)
			49.0% 13.8% 0.6% - 51.0% 14.0% 0.5%
	4	2	13/6	-0.003 ( -0.216)
			48.8% 13.9% 0.6% - 51.2% 14.5% 0.5%
	5	2	13/7 6/5	-0.034 ( -0.246)
			48.4% 13.4% 0.5% - 51.6% 15.3% 0.9%

Move number 2: Moshe Tissona to play 41

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 167, Jon Royset 160
Position ID: 4NvgATDgc/ABMA Match ID: MAEmA0AAAAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 24/23 13/9

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	24/23 13/9	-0.270
			44.8% 12.2% 0.4% - 55.2% 17.4% 0.7%
	2	2	24/23 24/20	-0.270 ( -0.001)
			44.9% 10.4% 0.4% - 55.1% 16.0% 0.5%
	3	2	13/9 6/5	-0.312 ( -0.042)
			44.0% 11.7% 0.4% - 55.9% 17.6% 1.2%
	4	2	13/8	-0.317 ( -0.047)
			43.5% 11.2% 0.4% - 56.5% 16.9% 0.7%
	5	2	24/20 6/5	-0.322 ( -0.053)
			44.5% 10.8% 0.5% - 55.5% 18.4% 0.9%

Move number 3: Jon Royset to play 62

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 162, Jon Royset 160
Position ID: 4HPhASjg2+ABMA Match ID: cAkrA0AAAAAA

• Jon Royset moves 24/16*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	24/16*	+0.535
			61.9% 18.3% 0.9% - 38.1% 9.4% 0.2%
	2	2	24/22 13/7	+0.201 ( -0.334)
			54.3% 15.3% 0.5% - 45.7% 12.5% 0.3%
	3	0	13/11 13/7	+0.161 ( -0.373)
			52.7% 16.4% 0.6% - 47.3% 13.1% 0.4%
	4	0	24/18 13/11	+0.160 ( -0.375)
			53.6% 14.4% 0.6% - 46.4% 13.6% 0.3%
	5	0	24/22 24/18	+0.102 ( -0.433)
			52.5% 13.3% 0.6% - 47.5% 14.5% 0.3%

Move number 4: Moshe Tissona to play 63

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 178, Jon Royset 152
Position ID: 4NvgESDgc/AAVA Match ID: MAEvA0AAAAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves bar/16

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	bar/22 13/7	-0.605
			37.0% 9.0% 0.2% - 63.0% 20.5% 1.1%
•	2	2	bar/16	-0.609 ( -0.004)
			36.5% 8.2% 0.2% - 63.5% 19.3% 0.7%
	3	2	bar/22 8/2	-0.723 ( -0.118)
			35.6% 8.4% 0.2% - 64.4% 22.6% 1.2%

Move number 5: Jon Royset to play 41

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 169, Jon Royset 152
Position ID: 4HPwCCjg2+ARIA Match ID: cAkmA0AAAAAA

• Jon Royset moves 16/15 13/9*

Alert: missed double ( -0.002)!

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		+0.392	(Money: +0.388)
	63.5% 19.3% 0.7% - 36.5% 8.2% 0.2%
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.609
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	(+0.391)
3.	No double	+0.607	(-0.002)
Proper cube action:		Double, take

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	13/9*/8	+0.656
			64.0% 19.7% 0.9% - 36.0% 8.4% 0.1%
•	2	2	16/15 13/9*	+0.643 ( -0.013)
			63.3% 20.3% 1.0% - 36.7% 9.0% 0.2%
	3	2	24/23 13/9*	+0.591 ( -0.066)
			62.3% 19.9% 1.1% - 37.7% 9.3% 0.2%
	4	2	6/2/1	+0.473 ( -0.184)
			59.4% 20.0% 0.8% - 40.6% 10.2% 0.3%
	5	2	13/9* 6/5	+0.421 ( -0.235)
			59.4% 18.7% 1.1% - 40.6% 11.6% 0.4%

Annotation

Casper van der Tak: After Tissona's last play, Royset has a double according to GNU! That would not have occurred to me at the board.

I'd hide the blot after hitting with 13/9*/8. The checker is useful as a spare on the 8, and moving it to the 8 eliminates some hits now and in the future.

Kit Woolsey: Doubling might be theoretically correct, since Royset is leading in every feature of the game (the race, better board, fewer men back, and a shot). However he has no new inner board points, so most of his good sequences aren't crushing and will result in only small market loss at best. Even if I believed that doubling were theoretically correct, I would not double unless I thought there was some chance my opponent would pass. I would prefer to wait and turn the cube at a time when he might make a significant error.

Move number 6: Moshe Tissona to play 32

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 178, Jon Royset 147
Position ID: 4NvCCSDgc/AAVA Match ID: MIEpA0AAAAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves bar/23 13/10*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/23 13/10*	-0.431
			40.9% 11.2% 0.3% - 59.1% 18.8% 0.9%
	2	2	bar/22 24/22	-0.639 ( -0.207)
			35.2% 7.6% 0.1% - 64.8% 16.8% 0.5%
	3	2	bar/23 24/21	-0.723 ( -0.291)
			34.2% 7.5% 0.2% - 65.8% 19.1% 0.8%
	4	2	bar/22 23/21	-0.758 ( -0.326)
			34.7% 7.6% 0.2% - 65.3% 21.6% 1.0%
	5	0	bar/20	-0.763 ( -0.332)
			34.7% 7.9% 0.2% - 65.3% 22.2% 1.0%

Move number 7: Jon Royset to play 62

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 173, Jon Royset 157
Position ID: 4HPiACzg28IBUA Match ID: cAkrA0AAAAAA

• Jon Royset moves bar/23 24/18

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		+0.267	(Money: +0.264)
	59.1% 18.8% 0.9% - 40.9% 11.2% 0.3%
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.431
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	(+0.569)
3.	Double, take	+0.342	(-0.089)
Proper cube action:		No double, take (13.5%)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/23 24/18	+0.345
			57.6% 18.1% 1.0% - 42.4% 12.5% 0.3%
	2	2	bar/23 13/7	+0.334 ( -0.011)
			56.8% 18.7% 0.9% - 43.2% 12.2% 0.3%
	3	2	bar/23 9/3	+0.199 ( -0.147)
			53.9% 16.8% 0.9% - 46.1% 13.9% 0.4%
	4	0	bar/23 7/1*	-0.015 ( -0.360)
			48.5% 15.8% 0.8% - 51.5% 17.2% 0.8%

Annotation

Casper van der Tak: I'd have played B/23 13/7 but Royset's move is better. If Tissona rolls one of his indirect hits on the 9, Royset will have more return hits and his non-return hits will be more productive, since most of the non-hitters will make the anchor on the bar-point. If Tissona hits on the bar, Royset may hit back or make the 9-point. In addition, Royset's play keeps a spare on the midpoint.

Move number 8: Moshe Tissona to play 54

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 173, Jon Royset 149
Position ID: 4NvCQRDgc+IALA Match ID: MIEyA0AAAAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 24/15

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	24/20 10/5	-0.573
			37.3% 9.6% 0.3% - 62.7% 19.8% 1.0%
•	2	2	24/15	-0.600 ( -0.026)
			36.4% 8.6% 0.2% - 63.6% 17.8% 0.7%
	3	2	10/5 6/2*	-0.644 ( -0.070)
			37.0% 9.7% 0.2% - 63.0% 22.1% 1.4%
	4	2	24/20 13/8	-0.661 ( -0.088)
			35.5% 9.0% 0.2% - 64.5% 20.0% 0.9%
	5	2	10/5 8/4	-0.697 ( -0.124)
			36.1% 9.1% 0.2% - 63.9% 22.6% 1.5%

Annotation

Casper van der Tak: I'd play Tissona's move as well, trying to get as many checkers out now, and duplicating 3s in the process.

Move number 9: Jon Royset to play 61

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 164, Jon Royset 149
Position ID: 4HPiBBjg28JBEA Match ID: cAknA0AAAAAA

• Jon Royset moves 13/7 9/8

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		+0.373	(Money: +0.370)
	63.6% 17.8% 0.7% - 36.4% 8.6% 0.2%
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.600
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	(+0.400)
3.	Double, take	+0.573	(-0.026)
Proper cube action:		No double, take (6.1%)

Alert: unlucky roll! ( -0.342)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	13/7 9/8	+0.281
			56.5% 15.5% 0.6% - 43.5% 11.6% 0.2%
	2	2	23/22 13/7	+0.257 ( -0.024)
			55.6% 17.0% 0.8% - 44.4% 13.0% 0.3%
	3	2	13/7 6/5	+0.152 ( -0.129)
			53.3% 16.8% 0.9% - 46.7% 15.6% 0.6%
	4	2	23/16	+0.149 ( -0.131)
			53.9% 14.3% 0.6% - 46.1% 14.8% 0.4%
	5	2	13/6	+0.140 ( -0.141)
			52.7% 15.5% 0.7% - 47.3% 13.9% 0.4%

Move number 10: Moshe Tissona to play 42

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 164, Jon Royset 142
Position ID: 4LuDQRDgc+IEGA Match ID: MAEqA0AAAAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 8/4 6/4

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	8/4 6/4	-0.369
			41.5% 11.2% 0.2% - 58.5% 16.3% 0.7%
	2	2	13/7*	-0.418 ( -0.050)
			41.5% 10.9% 0.2% - 58.5% 19.2% 1.0%
	3	2	15/11 13/11	-0.481 ( -0.112)
			38.8% 9.5% 0.2% - 61.2% 16.3% 0.5%
	4	2	10/8 6/2*	-0.565 ( -0.196)
			37.4% 9.0% 0.2% - 62.6% 18.3% 0.7%
	5	2	15/13 6/2*	-0.596 ( -0.227)
			36.8% 8.6% 0.1% - 63.2% 18.3% 0.8%

Move number 11: Jon Royset to play 62

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 158, Jon Royset 142
Position ID: mGfiBBjgu4NBEA Match ID: cAkrA0AAAAAA

• Jon Royset moves 18/10*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	18/10*	+0.464
			61.1% 17.7% 0.7% - 38.9% 10.5% 0.2%
	2	0	13/11 13/7	-0.156 ( -0.620)
			44.8% 13.3% 0.6% - 55.2% 17.9% 0.5%
	3	0	18/16 7/1	-0.173 ( -0.637)
			44.8% 13.3% 0.5% - 55.2% 19.5% 0.5%
	4	0	18/16 13/7	-0.240 ( -0.705)
			42.9% 12.4% 0.5% - 57.1% 19.4% 0.6%
	5	0	8/6 7/1	-0.260 ( -0.725)
			42.5% 12.8% 0.5% - 57.5% 20.7% 0.5%

Move number 12: Moshe Tissona to play 31

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 168, Jon Royset 134
Position ID: 4LsTAxCYZ+IATA Match ID: MIElA0AAAAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves bar/22 23/22

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	bar/22 6/5	-0.484
			41.0% 10.3% 0.2% - 59.0% 21.5% 1.4%
•	2	2	bar/22 23/22	-0.526 ( -0.042)
			38.2% 9.0% 0.1% - 61.8% 17.4% 0.6%
	3	2	bar/21	-0.620 ( -0.136)
			36.9% 9.0% 0.2% - 63.1% 19.4% 0.9%
	4	2	bar/22 10/9	-0.644 ( -0.159)
			36.3% 8.8% 0.1% - 63.7% 20.0% 0.9%
	5	2	bar/24 13/10	-0.652 ( -0.168)
			36.2% 9.1% 0.1% - 63.8% 20.2% 1.0%

Annotation

Casper van der Tak: I'd also have played Tissona's move, but Royset's 3s play so well on the other side of the board that Tissona should have slotted B/22 6/5. The safe vs. bold criteria also call for a bold play to improve.

Kit Woolsey: The key factor is Tissona's game plan. He is way behind in the race, so playing a racing sort of game from the defensive three point isn't the right game plan. Given that, advancing the anchor to the 22 point might actually worsen his position rather than strengthen. Obviously slotting the five point is an improvement. Getting hit is not a big deal, Tissona needs the point badly, and the duplication of threes is quite significant. The slot is not an easy play to find at the table -- one must really be in focus.

Move number 13: Jon Royset to play 66

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 164, Jon Royset 134
Position ID: mGfiABbguxMDEA Match ID: cAk7A0AAAAAA

• Jon Royset moves 13/1(2)

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		+0.327	(Money: +0.324)
	61.8% 17.4% 0.6% - 38.2% 9.0% 0.1%
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.526
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	(+0.474)
3.	Double, take	+0.470	(-0.057)
Proper cube action:		No double, take (10.7%)

Alert: unlucky roll! ( -0.337)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	13/1(2)	+0.219
			52.3% 19.7% 0.5% - 47.7% 10.6% 0.2%
	2	2	8/2*(2) 7/1(2)	+0.152 ( -0.067)
			50.3% 22.3% 0.5% - 49.7% 14.9% 0.6%
	3	2	13/7(2) 8/2*(2)	+0.065 ( -0.153)
			48.6% 17.6% 0.4% - 51.3% 11.7% 0.3%
	4	2	13/1 13/7 10/4	+0.047 ( -0.172)
			49.0% 16.2% 0.5% - 51.0% 13.2% 0.3%
	5	2	10/4 8/2*(3)	-0.002 ( -0.221)
			47.9% 16.5% 0.4% - 52.1% 14.7% 0.3%

Move number 14: Moshe Tissona to play 41

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 164, Jon Royset 110
Position ID: g+9OABCYZ+IAFg Match ID: MAEmA0AAAAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 23/22 13/9

Ply

Move

Equity

13/9 6/5

-0.262

49.2%	10.3%	0.2%	-	50.8%	27.5%	1.4%	-0.211	-0.333
0.3%	0.2%	0.0%	-	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.008	0.017

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1177853568

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed

•

23/22 13/9

-0.320 ( -0.058)

44.1%	7.8%	0.3%	-	55.9%	16.4%	0.3%	-0.211	-0.390
0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	-	0.3%	0.2%	0.0%	0.007	0.015

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1177853568

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed

23/22 6/2*

-0.339 ( -0.077)

44.6%	8.9%	0.3%	-	55.4%	19.1%	0.5%	-0.221	-0.409
0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	-	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.008	0.018

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1177853568

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed

13/9 10/9

-0.354 ( -0.092)

44.0%	8.1%	0.3%	-	56.0%	18.2%	0.5%	-0.232	-0.424
0.3%	0.2%	0.0%	-	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.007	0.017

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1177853568

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed

13/12 6/2*

-0.356 ( -0.094)

46.5% 11.5% 0.2% - 53.5% 26.4% 1.2%

Annotation

Casper van der Tak: And following the same logic, rollouts show that Tissona should play 13/9 6/5(!) here. Seems scary in face of a strong semi-blitz. I admit that I would have played 13/9 10/9 here, which does not do well at all in the rollout. Apparently Tissona should concentrate on his 5 and 7 points, and not the 9. A very difficult position.

Bots: Snowie thought 13/9 10/9 was the only move and that Royset's choice lost 0.066 equity, whereas GNU approved of Royset's choice.

Kit Woolsey: I don't like moving up to the 22 point with the back checker -- I think it is better off hanging back to make it more difficult for Royset to bear in safely. At the table I'm sure I would have made the 9 point -- after all, it is an asset and part of my blockade. I can see the logic behind the slot, but I'm not convinced it is right even if the rollout says it is -- there may be mistakes happening in a rollout of this sort of position which lead to very wrong conclustions.

Move number 15: Jon Royset to play 41

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 159, Jon Royset 110
Position ID: mGfFAA6D704AEA Match ID: cAkmA0AAAAAA

• Jon Royset moves 23/22 10/6

Ply

Move

Equity

23/18

+0.085

49.9%	13.3%	0.4%	-	50.1%	10.3%	0.4%	+0.036	+0.160
0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	-	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.008	0.018

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1177853568

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed

•

23/22 10/6

+0.024 ( -0.061)

49.1%	12.3%	0.3%	-	50.9%	9.9%	0.3%	+0.011	+0.100
0.3%	0.2%	0.0%	-	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.007	0.016

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1177853568

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed

23/22 6/2

+0.006 ( -0.079)

48.8%	13.2%	0.2%	-	51.2%	11.6%	0.4%	-0.005	+0.083
0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	-	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.007	0.015

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1177853568

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed

10/6 8/7

+0.024 ( -0.060)

47.9% 14.0% 0.2% - 52.1% 9.6% 0.1%

10/5

+0.018 ( -0.067)

48.1% 14.9% 0.3% - 51.9% 11.6% 0.2%

Annotation

Casper van der Tak: Here I would have stepped out (23/18), since hiding the builder with 10/6 costs so much flexibility. Tissona is bound to hit, but hitting may not be convenient and will distract him from making the points he wants.

Bots: GNU agreed with the move played, but Snowie said it was a mistake and that 23/18 was the correct choice.

Move number 16: Moshe Tissona to play 52

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 159, Jon Royset 105
Position ID: g98dAAiYZ8UADg Match ID: MIEqA0AAAAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 10/3*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	22/15	-0.279
			46.9% 8.8% 0.1% - 53.1% 19.4% 0.4%
•	2	2	10/3*	-0.296 ( -0.017)
			46.0% 8.8% 0.1% - 54.0% 19.0% 0.4%
	3	2	10/5 9/7	-0.368 ( -0.089)
			44.2% 8.5% 0.1% - 55.8% 19.8% 0.4%
	4	2	10/5 6/4	-0.400 ( -0.121)
			43.8% 8.6% 0.1% - 56.3% 20.7% 0.4%
	5	2	10/8 9/4	-0.462 ( -0.183)
			38.9% 6.4% 0.1% - 61.1% 12.5% 0.1%

Annotation

Casper van der Tak: I also would have hit, but can believe that 22/15 is better since it leaves almost the same number of shots (18 vs. 16) and brings another checker to contain Royset's last back checker.

Move number 17: Jon Royset to play 22

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 152, Jon Royset 108
Position ID: NM/CAA6D3x0AQA Match ID: cAkpA0AAAAAA

• Jon Royset moves bar/23 6/4(3)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/23 6/4(3)	+0.477
			60.4% 16.5% 0.3% - 39.6% 5.9% 0.1%
	2	2	bar/23 7/5(3)	+0.404 ( -0.073)
			57.9% 17.1% 0.3% - 42.1% 6.2% 0.1%
	3	2	bar/23 8/4 6/4	+0.393 ( -0.084)
			58.2% 16.2% 0.3% - 41.8% 6.5% 0.1%
	4	2	bar/23 7/5 6/4(2)	+0.327 ( -0.150)
			56.2% 18.7% 0.5% - 43.8% 10.4% 0.2%
	5	0	bar/23 8/2	+0.165 ( -0.312)
			51.8% 16.2% 0.2% - 48.2% 10.1% 0.1%

Move number 18: Moshe Tissona to play 42

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 152, Jon Royset 100
Position ID: 49wdABA0z8IADg Match ID: MAEqA0AAAAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 9/3

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	9/3	-0.351
			42.3% 6.5% 0.1% - 57.7% 13.9% 0.2%
	2	0	22/16	-0.680 ( -0.329)
			38.7% 6.2% 0.1% - 61.3% 25.5% 0.7%
	3	0	13/9 6/4	-0.693 ( -0.341)
			37.4% 6.0% 0.1% - 62.6% 23.3% 0.6%
	4	0	13/11 13/9	-0.717 ( -0.366)
			36.9% 5.9% 0.1% - 63.1% 23.4% 0.6%
	5	0	13/9 3/1	-0.717 ( -0.366)
			34.0% 5.4% 0.1% - 66.0% 17.1% 0.2%

Move number 19: Jon Royset to play 61

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 146, Jon Royset 100
Position ID: bJ7BAA7j3B0AEA Match ID: cAknA0AAAAAA

• Jon Royset moves 8/2 7/6

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	8/2 7/6	+0.302
			55.9% 14.8% 0.2% - 44.1% 6.8% 0.1%
	2	2	8/1	+0.222 ( -0.080)
			54.1% 14.1% 0.2% - 45.9% 8.1% 0.1%
	3	2	8/2 6/5	+0.046 ( -0.256)
			49.8% 15.6% 0.4% - 50.2% 13.8% 0.3%
	4	0	7/1 6/5	-0.077 ( -0.379)
			46.6% 14.0% 0.2% - 53.4% 15.2% 0.4%
	5	0	7/6 7/1	-0.154 ( -0.456)
			44.1% 13.4% 0.2% - 55.9% 14.8% 0.3%

Move number 20: Moshe Tissona to play 52

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 146, Jon Royset 93
Position ID: y3kbABBsnsEADg Match ID: MIEqA0AAAAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 22/15

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	22/15	-0.126
			49.6% 7.3% 0.1% - 50.4% 13.3% 0.3%
	2	2	13/8 6/4	-0.440 ( -0.314)
			40.1% 5.7% 0.1% - 59.9% 13.5% 0.2%
	3	0	13/11 13/8	-0.410 ( -0.283)
			40.5% 6.0% 0.1% - 59.5% 14.2% 0.2%
	4	0	13/6	-0.442 ( -0.315)
			39.3% 5.8% 0.1% - 60.7% 13.8% 0.2%
	5	0	22/20 13/8	-0.488 ( -0.362)
			40.8% 7.5% 0.1% - 59.2% 21.8% 0.6%

Move number 21: Jon Royset to play 65

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 139, Jon Royset 93
Position ID: bJ7BBAzLeRsAEA Match ID: cAk3A0AAAAAA

• Jon Royset moves 7/2 7/1

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	7/2 7/1	+0.044
			48.4% 13.2% 0.1% - 51.6% 7.2% 0.1%
	2	2	23/18 8/2	-0.078 ( -0.123)
			44.8% 15.6% 0.4% - 55.2% 11.6% 0.3%
	3	2	8/2 6/1	-0.163 ( -0.208)
			43.4% 13.2% 0.2% - 56.6% 11.9% 0.2%
	4	0	23/18 7/1	-0.373 ( -0.418)
			38.5% 11.8% 0.2% - 61.5% 17.7% 0.4%
	5	0	7/1 6/1	-0.440 ( -0.484)
			37.0% 11.2% 0.2% - 63.0% 18.8% 0.5%

Move number 22: Moshe Tissona to play 44

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 139, Jon Royset 82
Position ID: N+cZABBsnsEEDA Match ID: MAEyA0AAAAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 13/5(2)

Alert: lucky roll! ( +0.435)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	13/5(2)	+0.439
			64.2% 10.9% 0.1% - 35.8% 7.2% 0.1%
	2	2	13/9(2) 6/2*(2)	+0.087 ( -0.352)
			55.2% 7.6% 0.1% - 44.8% 9.8% 0.2%
	3	0	15/11 13/9 6/2*(2)	+0.108 ( -0.331)
			56.4% 7.9% 0.0% - 43.6% 11.8% 0.3%
	4	0	15/7 6/2*(2)	+0.066 ( -0.374)
			55.0% 7.3% 0.0% - 45.0% 11.6% 0.2%
	5	0	22/18(2) 6/2*(2)	+0.063 ( -0.376)
			54.8% 4.6% 0.0% - 45.2% 9.0% 0.1%

Move number 23: Jon Royset to play 21

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 123, Jon Royset 82
Position ID: bHsGBAw35xkAEA Match ID: cAklA0AAAAAA

• Jon Royset moves 4/1

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	4/1	-0.651
			30.8% 7.3% 0.1% - 69.2% 14.2% 0.3%
	2	2	6/4 2/1	-0.878 ( -0.227)
			27.2% 7.5% 0.1% - 72.8% 17.0% 0.4%
	3	0	8/7 8/6	-0.966 ( -0.315)
			26.5% 6.1% 0.0% - 73.5% 18.1% 0.4%
	4	0	6/5 4/2	-1.000 ( -0.349)
			24.8% 6.9% 0.1% - 75.2% 26.6% 0.8%
	5	0	6/5 6/4	-1.000 ( -0.349)
			23.7% 6.4% 0.1% - 76.3% 27.8% 0.9%

Move number 24: Moshe Tissona to play 42

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 123, Jon Royset 79
Position ID: b+YZABBsewYEDA Match ID: MAEqA0AAAAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 15/13 6/2*

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		+0.455	(Money: +0.454)
	69.2% 14.2% 0.3% - 30.8% 7.3% 0.1%
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.634
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	(+0.366)
3.	Double, take	+0.629	(-0.006)
Proper cube action:		No double, take (1.5%)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	15/13 6/2*	+0.725
			72.0% 15.4% 0.2% - 28.0% 9.4% 0.2%
	2	2	6/4 6/2*	+0.675 ( -0.050)
			70.2% 14.9% 0.2% - 29.8% 9.6% 0.2%
	3	2	15/11 6/4	+0.521 ( -0.205)
			65.3% 12.7% 0.1% - 34.7% 7.0% 0.1%
	4	2	8/2*	+0.453 ( -0.273)
			65.3% 14.0% 0.2% - 34.7% 14.3% 0.3%
	5	2	22/20 6/2*	+0.453 ( -0.273)
			66.4% 13.6% 0.2% - 33.6% 14.2% 0.5%

Annotation

Casper van der Tak: Hitting loose is clear. What is less clear is whether Tissona should double before rolling. The reason is that Tissona loses his market with a hit followed by a miss. This is not very clear to me, and I would have rolled and risked losing my market.

Kit Woolsey: Wild horses couldn't stop me from turning the cube here. It isn't only Tissona's possible good rolls which will lead to a market loss -- it is also Royset's bad rolls. Royset's position is going to fall apart with one poor roll. While I'm pretty sure that Royset has a take, It wouldn't surprise me to get some passes here, even from good players. I believe that not doubling is a serious error, and if the bots say otherwise they are just plain wrong.

Move number 25: Jon Royset to play 21

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 117, Jon Royset 81
Position ID: 2nYGAQxv5hkAQA Match ID: cAklA0AAAAAA

• Jon Royset moves bar/23* 8/7

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/23* 8/7	-0.466
			33.8% 15.5% 0.3% - 66.2% 20.8% 0.9%
	2	2	bar/23* 6/5	-0.511 ( -0.045)
			33.1% 15.7% 0.3% - 66.9% 21.9% 0.7%
	3	2	bar/24 6/4	-0.642 ( -0.176)
			31.3% 6.4% 0.1% - 68.7% 13.8% 0.2%
	4	0	bar/23* 2/1	-1.000 ( -0.534)
			26.3% 10.8% 0.2% - 73.7% 26.1% 0.9%
	5	0	bar/24 8/6	-1.000 ( -0.534)
			22.5% 6.0% 0.0% - 77.5% 21.7% 0.5%

Move number 26: Moshe Tissona to play 41

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 140, Jon Royset 78
Position ID: b+YVABBsO4MARg Match ID: MAEmA0AAAAAA

• Moshe Tissona cannot move

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		+0.383	(Money: +0.382)
	66.2% 20.6% 0.9% - 33.8% 15.5% 0.3%
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.437
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	(+0.563)
3.	Double, take	+0.437	(-0.000)
Proper cube action:		No double, take (0.1%)

Alert: unlucky roll! ( -0.452)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
			Cannot move

Annotation

Casper van der Tak: Again, the bots say that Tissona can double before rolling because of the large number of rolls hitting the blots on Royset's 7 and 8. I would not have seen this over the board.

Kit Woolsey: I can see the reasons for doubling here, but this one I wouldn't double. There is zero chance that anybody would pass, since it is too easy for the opponent to see the cup half full variations. Since in theory doubling has to be borderline at best, I would wait.

Move number 27: Jon Royset to play 21

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 140, Jon Royset 78
Position ID: bDuDAEZv5hUAEA Match ID: cAklA0AAAAAA

• Jon Royset moves 7/5 6/5

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	7/5 6/5	+0.135
			47.3% 24.9% 0.6% - 52.7% 12.1% 0.4%
	2	0	8/6 7/6	-0.221 ( -0.357)
			38.3% 16.3% 0.2% - 61.7% 9.9% 0.2%
	3	0	8/7 6/4	-0.230 ( -0.366)
			39.1% 16.2% 0.2% - 60.9% 12.8% 0.3%
	4	0	7/4	-0.301 ( -0.436)
			37.4% 16.6% 0.3% - 62.6% 14.9% 0.3%
	5	0	8/5	-0.680 ( -0.816)
			30.8% 14.8% 0.3% - 69.2% 26.1% 1.4%

Move number 28: Moshe Tissona to play 44

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 140, Jon Royset 75
Position ID: b7YTABBsO4MARg Match ID: MAEyA0AAAAAA

• Moshe Tissona cannot move

#		Ply	Move	Equity
			Cannot move

Move number 29: Jon Royset to play 31

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 140, Jon Royset 75
Position ID: bDuDAEZvthMAEA Match ID: cIklA0AAAAAA

• Jon Royset moves 8/4

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	8/4	+0.139
			48.1% 25.8% 0.4% - 51.9% 9.2% 0.1%
	2	2	8/5 6/5	+0.092 ( -0.046)
			47.4% 25.0% 0.4% - 52.6% 9.1% 0.1%
	3	2	6/2	-0.151 ( -0.290)
			40.8% 22.7% 0.3% - 59.2% 14.0% 0.2%
	4	0	5/4 5/2	-0.393 ( -0.532)
			35.3% 16.1% 0.2% - 64.7% 16.2% 0.3%
	5	0	8/5 2/1	-0.513 ( -0.652)
			32.6% 16.0% 0.4% - 67.4% 19.5% 0.7%

Move number 30: Moshe Tissona to play 21

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 140, Jon Royset 71
Position ID: b24HABBsO4MARg Match ID: MAElA0AAAAAA

• Moshe Tissona cannot move

#		Ply	Move	Equity
			Cannot move

Move number 31: Jon Royset to play 22

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 140, Jon Royset 71
Position ID: bDuDAEZvbgcAEA Match ID: cAkpA0AAAAAA

• Jon Royset moves 6/2 6/4(2)

Alert: unlucky roll! ( -0.563)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	6/2 6/4(2)	-0.234
			37.6% 16.1% 0.2% - 62.4% 8.9% 0.1%
	2	0	6/2(2)	-0.683 ( -0.449)
			28.9% 13.5% 0.2% - 71.1% 19.8% 0.4%
	3	0	6/2 4/2(2)	-1.000 ( -0.766)
			21.3% 9.5% 0.1% - 78.7% 29.5% 0.7%

Move number 32: Moshe Tissona to play 51

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 140, Jon Royset 63
Position ID: 73wDABBsO4MARg Match ID: MIEmA0AAAAAA

• Moshe Tissona cannot move

#		Ply	Move	Equity
			Cannot move

Move number 33: Jon Royset to play 51

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 140, Jon Royset 63
Position ID: bDuDAEbvfAMAEA Match ID: cIkmA0AAAAAA

• Jon Royset moves 23/18 2/1

Alert: very lucky roll! ( +0.809)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	23/18 2/1	+0.776
			60.8% 37.5% 0.4% - 39.2% 4.3% 0.0%
	2	0	23/18 5/4	-0.502 ( -1.278)
			31.8% 14.8% 0.1% - 68.2% 16.3% 0.1%

Move number 34: Moshe Tissona to play 32

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 140, Jon Royset 57
Position ID: 33wDgABsO4MARg Match ID: MIEpA0AAAAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves bar/22 6/4

Alert: unlucky roll! ( -0.434)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/22 6/4	-1.000
			32.9% 3.0% 0.0% - 67.1% 35.5% 0.4%
	2	2	bar/22 13/11	-1.000 ( +0.000)
			30.1% 2.5% 0.0% - 69.9% 34.0% 0.3%
	3	2	bar/22 5/3	-1.000 ( +0.000)
			26.1% 1.9% 0.0% - 73.9% 41.0% 0.5%
	4	2	bar/22 8/6	-1.000 ( +0.000)
			26.8% 2.0% 0.0% - 73.2% 43.1% 0.6%
	5	2	bar/22 3/1	-1.000 ( +0.000)
			26.3% 2.3% 0.0% - 73.7% 43.0% 0.5%

Move number 35: Jon Royset doubles to 2

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 135, Jon Royset 57
Position ID: 7DaDAA7ffAOAAA Match ID: cBEgA0AAAAAA

• Moshe Tissona rejects

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		+0.681	(Money: +0.671)
	67.1% 35.5% 0.4% - 32.9% 3.0% 0.0%
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.000
2.	Double, take	+1.250	(+0.250)
3.	No double	+0.815	(-0.185)
Proper cube action:		Double, pass

Jon Royset wins 1 point

Game statistics for game 4
Player	Moshe Tissona	Jon Royset
Checker play statistics
Total moves	17	17
Unforced moves	13	17
Moves marked very good	0	0
Moves marked good	0	0
Moves marked interesting	0	0
Moves unmarked	14	16
Moves marked doubtful	3	1
Moves marked bad	0	0
Moves marked very bad	0	0
Error rate (total)	-0.147 ( -0.465%)	-0.074 ( -0.236%)
Error rate (pr. move)	-0.011 ( -0.036% )	-0.004 ( -0.014%)
Chequer play rating	Advanced	World class
Luck statistics
Rolls marked very lucky	0	1
Rolls marked lucky	1	0
Rolls unmarked	14	13
Rolls marked unlucky	2	3
Rolls marked very unlucky	0	0
Luck rate (total)	-1.870 ( -5.930%)	-0.738 ( -2.340%)
Luck rate (pr. move)	-0.110 ( -0.349%)	-0.043 ( -0.138%)
Luck rating	"Haaa-haaa"	Better luck next time
Cube statistics
Total cube decisions	18	17
Close or actual cube decisions	4	12
Doubles	0	1
Takes	0	0
Passes	1	0
Missed doubles around DP	0	1 (-0.002 ( -0.005%))
Missed doubles around TG	0	0
Wrong doubles around DP	0	0
Wrong doubles around TG	0	0
Wrong takes	0	0
Wrong passes	0	0
Error rate (total)	0	-0.002 ( -0.005%)
Error rate (per cube decision)	0	-0.000 ( -0.000%)
Cube decision rating	Supernatural	Supernatural
Overall rating
Error rate (total)	-0.147 ( -0.465%)	-0.076 ( -0.241%)
Error rate (per decision)	-0.009 ( -0.027% )	-0.003 ( -0.008%)
Equivalent Snowie error rate	-4.3	-2.2
Overall rating	Advanced	World class
Actual result	46.92%	53.08%
Luck adjusted result	50.51%	49.49%
Relative FIBS rating	1.78	-1.78

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