Game number 15

Moshe Tissona (12 pts) vs. Jon Royset (8 pts) (Match to 25)

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Match Information

Moshe Tissona's rating: 0 (Exp 0)
Jon Royset's rating: 0 (Exp 0)
Date: July 13, 2003
Event: World Championship 2003
Round: Final
Place: Monte Carlo
Annotator: Casper van der Tak, Chuck Bower, Alex Zamanian, Tom Suzanski, Christian Toth, and GNU 0.14

Move number 1: Jon Royset to play 52

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 167, Jon Royset 167
Position ID: 4HPwATDgc/ABMA Match ID: cIgqA8AAQAAA

• Jon Royset moves 13/11 13/8

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	13/11 13/8	+0.096
			50.8% 15.0% 0.7% - 49.2% 13.8% 0.5%
	2	2	24/22 13/8	+0.088 ( -0.008)
			50.9% 13.6% 0.5% - 49.1% 12.8% 0.4%
	3	2	13/8 6/4	+0.043 ( -0.053)
			49.6% 13.9% 0.5% - 50.4% 13.9% 0.6%
	4	2	13/6	+0.013 ( -0.083)
			48.8% 13.9% 0.6% - 51.2% 14.5% 0.5%
	5	2	13/11 8/3	-0.058 ( -0.154)
			47.0% 13.9% 0.6% - 53.0% 16.1% 0.9%

Move number 2: Moshe Tissona to play 21

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 167, Jon Royset 160
Position ID: 4PPIATDgc/ABMA Match ID: MAElA8AAQAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 13/11 6/5

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	13/11 6/5	-0.157
			48.3% 13.5% 0.6% - 51.7% 16.4% 1.1%
	2	2	24/23 13/11	-0.191 ( -0.034)
			47.1% 12.8% 0.5% - 52.9% 16.3% 0.7%
	3	2	13/10	-0.201 ( -0.044)
			46.6% 12.9% 0.5% - 53.4% 16.0% 0.8%
	4	2	24/21	-0.216 ( -0.058)
			46.6% 11.5% 0.5% - 53.4% 16.0% 0.5%
	5	2	24/23 24/22	-0.255 ( -0.098)
			45.7% 11.4% 0.5% - 54.3% 17.0% 0.6%

Annotation

Chuck Bower: Previously performed level-6 (1-ply) Jellyfish 3.0 rollouts indicate 13/11 24/23 is just as good as Tissona's choice, but a moderate length GNU rollout here with strong settings considers the split a blunder. Part of this is the fact that GNU's rollout is cubeful. In addition, there are likely some statistical effects going on, possibly in both rollouts. Although GNU's result is qualitatively convincing, the ratio of equity difference between cubeful and cubeless is about 2.5, which seems way out of line for the second roll of the game. More investigation is needed but for now I think the slot play should be given the benefit of the doubt as being best.

Move number 3: Jon Royset to play 66

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 164, Jon Royset 160
Position ID: 0HPkATDg88gBMA Match ID: cAk7A8AAQAAA

• Jon Royset moves 24/18(2) 13/7(2)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	24/18(2) 13/7(2)	+0.549
			62.1% 17.0% 0.9% - 37.9% 8.2% 0.2%
	2	2	24/18(2) 8/2(2)	+0.386 ( -0.163)
			58.7% 15.9% 0.8% - 41.3% 9.6% 0.2%
	3	2	24/18(2) 13/7 11/5	+0.162 ( -0.387)
			52.6% 14.9% 0.7% - 47.4% 12.4% 0.3%
	4	2	24/18 13/7(3)	+0.115 ( -0.434)
			50.9% 16.2% 1.0% - 49.1% 14.2% 0.4%
	5	0	24/18(2) 11/5 8/2	+0.173 ( -0.376)
			52.9% 15.2% 0.9% - 47.1% 12.9% 0.4%

Move number 4: Moshe Tissona to play 41

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 164, Jon Royset 136
Position ID: 4NsjwQDQc+QBMA Match ID: MAEmA8AAQAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 24/20 6/5

Alert: bad move ( -0.104)

Ply

Move

Equity

13/12*/8

-0.530

39.1%	8.6%	0.5%	-	60.9%	18.5%	1.1%	-0.334	-0.530
0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	-	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.006	0.020

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175372288

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

24/20 13/12*

-0.531 ( -0.001)

41.1%	9.3%	0.4%	-	58.9%	21.9%	1.8%	-0.340	-0.531
0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	-	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.006	0.014

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175372288

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

•

24/20 6/5

-0.633 ( -0.104)

37.4%	7.2%	0.3%	-	62.6%	18.3%	0.6%	-0.370	-0.633
0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	-	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.005	0.015

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175372288

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

8/4 6/5

-0.651 ( -0.121)

35.6%	8.0%	0.4%	-	64.4%	15.9%	0.9%	-0.381	-0.651
0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	-	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.005	0.016

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175372288

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

13/12* 13/9

-0.574 ( -0.045)

40.0% 9.6% 0.3% - 60.0% 23.3% 2.8%

Annotation

Chuck Bower: Tissona shuns the opportunity to cut Royset's pipcount lead and steps into a 4-gun to boot. A bit too pure.

Move number 5: Jon Royset to play 54

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 159, Jon Royset 136
Position ID: sHPkASHg2yPBAA Match ID: cIkyA8AAQAAA

• Jon Royset moves 13/8 11/7

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		+0.331	(Money: +0.335)
	61.1% 19.1% 0.8% - 38.9% 8.3% 0.2%
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.532
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	(+0.468)
3.	Double, take	+0.510	(-0.022)
Proper cube action:		No double, take (4.5%)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	13/8 11/7	+0.555
			63.8% 13.5% 0.3% - 36.2% 5.0% 0.1%
	2	2	18/14* 18/13	+0.436 ( -0.119)
			59.9% 14.9% 0.5% - 40.1% 9.2% 0.2%
	3	2	11/7 6/1*	+0.358 ( -0.197)
			58.4% 12.5% 0.2% - 41.6% 7.3% 0.1%
	4	2	13/9 11/6	+0.331 ( -0.224)
			56.8% 14.1% 0.3% - 43.2% 7.2% 0.1%
	5	2	18/14* 6/1*	+0.278 ( -0.277)
			55.3% 16.9% 0.6% - 44.7% 13.1% 0.6%

Annotation

Chuck Bower: High volatility again puts Royset in the doubling zone but he chooses to shore up his position first. A strong SW3.2 rollout indicates he's a bit shy, by 0.06 emg.

Move number 6: Moshe Tissona to play 51

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 159, Jon Royset 127
Position ID: 4LsPwACwc+QBIQ Match ID: MIEmA8AAQAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 11/5

Ply

Move

Equity

20/14

-0.647

37.2%	5.5%	0.2%	-	62.8%	17.8%	0.3%	-0.381	-0.647
0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	-	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	0.005	0.015

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175372288

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

20/15 6/5

-0.661 ( -0.014)

37.2%	5.4%	0.2%	-	62.8%	18.3%	0.3%	-0.387	-0.661
0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	-	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	0.005	0.014

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175372288

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

20/15 11/10

-0.664 ( -0.017)

37.0%	5.8%	0.3%	-	63.0%	18.2%	0.5%	-0.390	-0.664
0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	-	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.005	0.016

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175372288

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

•

11/5

-0.671 ( -0.024)

36.2%	6.8%	0.3%	-	63.8%	17.2%	0.3%	-0.384	-0.671
0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	-	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.005	0.013

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175372288

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

13/8 6/5

-0.685 ( -0.037)

36.4%	6.7%	0.2%	-	63.6%	18.9%	0.6%	-0.399	-0.685
0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	-	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.005	0.014

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175372288

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Annotation

Chuck Bower: Snowie3.2 eval likes Tissona's play but GNU rollouts have a slight but statistically significant preference for getting off the point Royset would most like to make.

Move number 7: Jon Royset doubles to 2

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 153, Jon Royset 127
Position ID: cOfgASHguw/AAA Match ID: cBEgA8AAQAAA

• Moshe Tissona accepts

Cube decision

Rollout cubeless equity

+0.388

(Money: +0.372)

Cubeful equities:

Double, take

+0.636

Double, pass

+1.000

(+0.364)

No double

+0.626

(-0.011)

Proper cube action:

Double, take

Rollout details

	Win	W g	W bg		Lose	L g	L bg	Cubeless	Cubeful
Centered 1-cube	63.3%	17.1%	0.3%	-	36.7%	6.6%	0.2%	+0.388	+0.626
Standard error	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	-	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	0.006	0.014
Player Moshe Tissona owns 2-cube	63.2%	16.9%	0.2%	-	36.8%	6.7%	0.2%	+0.861	+0.636
Standard error	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	-	0.3%	0.2%	0.0%	0.014	0.019

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

792 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1176076544 and quasi-random dice

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Annotation

Chuck Bower: Royset decides he's been patient long enough and sends over an aggressive double. SW3.2 strong rollouts put his decision right on the borderline.

Move number 8: Jon Royset to play 44

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 153, Jon Royset 127
Position ID: cOfgASHguw/AAA Match ID: QQkyA8AAQAAA

• Jon Royset moves 18/10(2)

Ply

Move

Equity

•

18/10(2)

+0.657

78.7%	17.8%	0.4%	-	21.3%	2.5%	0.1%	+0.728	+0.657
0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	-	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.004	0.006

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175372288

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

18/14(2) 8/4(2)

+0.595 ( -0.062)

76.3%	17.4%	0.4%	-	23.7%	3.6%	0.1%	+0.666	+0.595
0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	-	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.004	0.005

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175372288

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

18/14(2) 6/2(2)

+0.566 ( -0.092)

74.8% 15.1% 0.3% - 25.2% 3.2% 0.0%

8/4(2) 6/2(2)

+0.538 ( -0.119)

69.6% 24.4% 0.4% - 30.4% 4.8% 0.1%

8/4(3) 6/2

+0.287 ( -0.371)

61.8% 19.3% 0.5% - 38.2% 7.2% 0.1%

Move number 9: Moshe Tissona to play 41

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 153, Jon Royset 111
Position ID: 4LvPAABw5+ABIQ Match ID: AQEmA8AAQAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 8/4 5/4

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	8/4 5/4	-0.684
			22.0% 2.8% 0.0% - 78.0% 18.8% 0.3%
	2	2	13/9 8/7	-0.725 ( -0.040)
			21.2% 2.7% 0.0% - 78.8% 20.7% 0.5%
	3	2	13/9 5/4	-0.730 ( -0.046)
			21.0% 2.7% 0.0% - 79.0% 20.9% 0.5%
	4	2	20/16 8/7	-0.736 ( -0.052)
			20.6% 2.6% 0.0% - 79.4% 20.6% 0.3%
	5	2	13/12 13/9	-0.736 ( -0.052)
			20.8% 2.7% 0.0% - 79.2% 20.9% 0.5%

Annotation

Chuck Bower: Tissona correctly keeps his back checkers split, maximizing his winning chances at the cost of more gammon losses.

Move number 10: Jon Royset to play 11

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 148, Jon Royset 111
Position ID: 2M7gASHgu88AAA Match ID: QYkkA8AAQAAA

• Jon Royset moves 8/5* 6/5

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	8/5* 6/5	+0.807
			81.7% 21.3% 0.5% - 18.3% 1.6% 0.0%
	2	2	8/7 6/5*(3)	+0.799 ( -0.008)
			81.7% 20.7% 0.5% - 18.3% 1.5% 0.0%
	3	2	7/5* 6/5(2)	+0.795 ( -0.012)
			81.4% 21.0% 0.5% - 18.6% 1.6% 0.0%
	4	2	8/7(2) 6/5*(2)	+0.782 ( -0.025)
			81.1% 20.4% 0.4% - 18.9% 1.6% 0.0%
	5	2	6/5*/4(2)	+0.762 ( -0.045)
			81.0% 18.7% 0.4% - 19.0% 1.5% 0.0%

Move number 11: Moshe Tissona to play 42

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 153, Jon Royset 107
Position ID: sHfPAADYzuABUA Match ID: AQEqA8AAQAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves bar/23 13/9

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/23 13/9	-0.834
			18.8% 2.0% 0.0% - 81.3% 25.0% 0.6%
	2	2	bar/21 13/11	-0.878 ( -0.045)
			17.8% 1.8% 0.0% - 82.2% 27.1% 0.6%
	3	2	bar/23 8/4	-0.883 ( -0.049)
			17.6% 2.0% 0.0% - 82.4% 27.0% 0.6%
	4	2	bar/23 6/2	-0.897 ( -0.063)
			17.9% 2.0% 0.0% - 82.1% 29.0% 0.7%
	5	2	bar/21 6/4	-0.902 ( -0.068)
			17.3% 1.8% 0.0% - 82.7% 28.1% 0.5%

Annotation

Chuck Bower: Tissona's decision to stay as far back as possible from Royset's snarling wolves is supported by GNU evaluations and rollouts.

Move number 12: Jon Royset to play 44

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 147, Jon Royset 107
Position ID: 2M7CASiwd88AAA Match ID: QQkyA8AAQAAA

• Jon Royset moves 8/4(2) 6/2*(2)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	8/4(2) 6/2*(2)	+1.084
			83.5% 42.5% 1.0% - 16.5% 1.3% 0.0%
	2	2	6/2(2) 5/1(2)	+1.034 ( -0.050)
			81.9% 42.0% 0.4% - 18.1% 1.3% 0.0%
	3	2	8/4(4)	+0.924 ( -0.160)
			82.4% 30.2% 0.7% - 17.6% 1.0% 0.0%
	4	2	7/3(2) 6/2*(2)	+0.881 ( -0.203)
			76.6% 39.4% 1.0% - 23.4% 2.8% 0.1%
	5	2	10/2*(2)	+0.852 ( -0.232)
			80.4% 27.9% 0.5% - 19.6% 1.2% 0.0%

Move number 13: Moshe Tissona to play 53

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 149, Jon Royset 91
Position ID: ZtvNAADYzsIBUA Match ID: AYEuA8AAQAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves bar/22 13/8

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/22 13/8	-1.096
			15.3% 1.4% 0.0% - 84.7% 41.3% 0.8%
	2	2	bar/22 9/4	-1.109 ( -0.013)
			14.6% 1.4% 0.0% - 85.4% 41.1% 0.8%
	3	2	bar/22 8/3	-1.176 ( -0.080)
			15.4% 2.0% 0.0% - 84.6% 48.4% 1.7%
	4	2	bar/22 6/1	-1.198 ( -0.102)
			14.3% 1.8% 0.0% - 85.7% 48.5% 1.2%

Move number 14: Jon Royset to play 42

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 141, Jon Royset 91
Position ID: 2M6FASRm280AAA Match ID: QQkqA8AAQAAA

• Jon Royset moves 7/3*/1*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	7/3/1	+1.225
			82.0% 59.2% 1.4% - 18.0% 2.7% 0.1%
	2	2	8/6 8/4	+0.989 ( -0.236)
			84.2% 32.4% 0.6% - 15.8% 0.9% 0.0%
	3	2	10/6 7/5	+0.971 ( -0.254)
			83.4% 32.6% 0.7% - 16.6% 1.2% 0.0%
	4	2	10/8 10/6	+0.939 ( -0.286)
			83.2% 30.0% 0.5% - 16.8% 0.9% 0.0%
	5	2	10/4	+0.916 ( -0.309)
			82.5% 29.6% 0.5% - 17.5% 1.4% 0.0%

Move number 15: Moshe Tissona to play 65

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 145, Jon Royset 85
Position ID: zbbNAADYzoUBYA Match ID: AQE3A8AAQAAA

• Moshe Tissona cannot move

Alert: unlucky roll! ( -0.356)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
			Cannot move

Move number 16: Jon Royset to play 64

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 145, Jon Royset 85
Position ID: 2M6FAWDNts0AAA Match ID: QQkzA8AAQAAA

• Jon Royset moves 10/6 7/1

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	10/6 7/1	+1.689
			92.2% 79.2% 1.0% - 7.8% 0.3% 0.0%
	2	2	8/4 7/1	+1.663 ( -0.027)
			91.8% 77.5% 1.1% - 8.2% 0.4% 0.0%
	3	2	7/3 7/1	+1.496 ( -0.193)
			86.9% 73.0% 1.5% - 13.1% 1.6% 0.0%
	4	0	10/6 10/4	+1.287 ( -0.403)
			81.3% 65.5% 1.7% - 18.7% 1.8% 0.0%
	5	0	10/6 8/2	+1.230 ( -0.459)
			79.8% 64.4% 1.9% - 20.2% 3.3% 0.2%

Move number 17: Moshe Tissona to play 66

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 145, Jon Royset 75
Position ID: m+2aAADYzoUBYA Match ID: AQE7A8AAQAAA

• Moshe Tissona cannot move

#		Ply	Move	Equity
			Cannot move

Move number 18: Jon Royset to play 53

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 145, Jon Royset 75
Position ID: 2M6FAWCb7ZoAAA Match ID: QYkuA8AAQAAA

• Jon Royset moves 8/3 6/3

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	8/3 6/3	+1.861
			95.6% 87.6% 1.1% - 4.4% 0.0% 0.0%
	2	2	10/5 8/5	+1.698 ( -0.163)
			92.6% 79.2% 0.9% - 7.4% 0.1% 0.0%
	3	2	10/5 7/4	+1.695 ( -0.166)
			92.5% 79.0% 0.9% - 7.5% 0.1% 0.0%
	4	2	8/5 7/2	+1.645 ( -0.215)
			91.4% 77.0% 0.9% - 8.6% 0.2% 0.0%
	5	2	10/2	+1.623 ( -0.237)
			90.8% 76.3% 0.9% - 9.2% 0.3% 0.0%

Move number 19: Jon Royset to play 11

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 145, Jon Royset 67
Position ID: 2M6FAWDbtpUAAA Match ID: QYkkA8AAQAAA

• Jon Royset moves 8/5 7/6

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	10/9 7/4	+1.873
			96.1% 87.6% 1.1% - 3.9% 0.0% 0.0%
	2	2	8/4	+1.873 ( +0.000)
			96.1% 87.6% 1.1% - 3.9% 0.0% 0.0%
•	3	2	8/5 7/6	+1.870 ( -0.003)
			95.9% 87.7% 1.2% - 4.1% 0.0% 0.0%
	4	2	10/9 8/5	+1.869 ( -0.004)
			96.0% 87.6% 1.0% - 4.0% 0.0% 0.0%
	5	2	7/3	+1.867 ( -0.005)
			95.9% 87.5% 1.1% - 4.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Move number 20: Jon Royset to play 33

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 145, Jon Royset 63
Position ID: 2M6FAWDbdocAAA Match ID: QYktA8AAQAAA

• Jon Royset moves 10/4 6/3 5/2

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	10/4 6/3 5/2	+1.888
			96.6% 87.9% 1.0% - 3.4% 0.0% 0.0%
	2	2	10/4 6/off	+1.860 ( -0.028)
			95.3% 87.6% 1.7% - 4.7% 0.0% 0.0%
	3	2	10/7 6/3(3)	+1.859 ( -0.028)
			97.4% 84.2% 0.5% - 2.6% 0.0% 0.0%
	4	2	6/3(3) 5/2	+1.844 ( -0.043)
			97.0% 83.7% 0.5% - 3.0% 0.0% 0.0%
	5	2	10/1 6/3	+1.841 ( -0.047)
			95.1% 86.7% 1.1% - 4.9% 0.0% 0.0%

Annotation

Chuck Bower: If Tissona had fewer checkers in the outfield, ripping a checker off the 6-point would yield enough gammons to take the slight risk of getting hit after rolling 5-5 or 6-6 next turn. As it is, Royset gets so many gammons after the safe play that the 1% increased chance of losing is too great.

Move number 21: Jon Royset to play 64

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 145, Jon Royset 51
Position ID: 2M6FAWC7uw0AAA Match ID: QQkzA8AAQAAA

• Jon Royset moves 6/2 6/off

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	6/2 6/off	+1.791
			96.9% 88.2% 0.8% - 3.1% 0.0% 0.0%
	2	0	6/off 4/off	+1.381 ( -0.411)
			84.4% 74.5% 1.7% - 15.6% 0.0% 0.0%
	3	0	6/off 5/1	+0.894 ( -0.897)
			70.6% 57.9% 0.8% - 29.4% 0.0% 0.0%

Move number 22: Moshe Tissona to play 41

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 145, Jon Royset 41
Position ID: e3cDAABs58IAMA Match ID: AQEmA8AAQAAA

• Moshe Tissona cannot move

#		Ply	Move	Equity
			Cannot move

Move number 23: Jon Royset to play 65

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 145, Jon Royset 41
Position ID: 2M6FAWB7dwMAAA Match ID: QQk3A8AAQAAA

• Jon Royset moves 5/off(2)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	5/off(2)	+1.852
			97.5% 92.9% 1.0% - 2.5% 0.0% 0.0%

Move number 24: Moshe Tissona to play 54

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 145, Jon Royset 31
Position ID: e3cAAADbuTAADA Match ID: AYEyA8AAQAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves bar/20

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	bar/20	-1.805
			3.7% 0.0% 0.0% - 96.3% 89.2% 2.5%

Move number 25: Jon Royset to play 32

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 140, Jon Royset 31
Position ID: 2M6FAUF7dwAAAA Match ID: QYkpA8AAQAAA

• Jon Royset moves 4/1 3/1

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	4/2 3/off	+2.046
			99.8% 96.9% 0.2% - 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
•	2	2	4/1 3/1	+2.033 ( -0.013)
			99.7% 96.0% 0.1% - 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
	3	2	4/1 2/off	+2.019 ( -0.028)
			99.0% 95.9% 0.1% - 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
	4	2	3/off 2/off	+1.945 ( -0.102)
			96.8% 93.6% 0.4% - 3.2% 0.0% 0.0%
	5	0	4/2 4/1	+1.294 ( -0.752)
			79.8% 69.9% 0.1% - 20.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Annotation

Chuck Bower: Not an error worth losing sleep over, but one is left wondering if Royset might have not even seen the top play here.

Move number 26: Moshe Tissona to play 44

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 140, Jon Royset 26
Position ID: 720AAADbuTAgCA Match ID: AQEyA8AAQAAA

• Moshe Tissona cannot move

#		Ply	Move	Equity
			Cannot move

Move number 27: Jon Royset to play 41

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 140, Jon Royset 26
Position ID: 2M6FAUHvbQAAAA Match ID: QQkmA8AAQAAA

• Jon Royset moves 4/3 4/off

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	4/3 4/off	+1.901
			99.0% 95.4% 0.1% - 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
	2	0	4/off 1/off	+1.282 ( -0.619)
			80.9% 73.9% 0.3% - 19.1% 0.0% 0.0%
	3	0	4/off 2/1	+1.197 ( -0.703)
			78.9% 70.1% 0.1% - 21.1% 0.0% 0.0%
	4	0	4/off 3/2	+0.549 ( -1.352)
			59.7% 48.6% 0.1% - 40.3% 0.0% 0.0%

Move number 28: Moshe Tissona to play 64

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 140, Jon Royset 21
Position ID: 7x0AAIDtXBgQBA Match ID: AQEzA8AAQAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves bar/15

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	bar/21 20/14	-2.056
			0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 100.0% 97.4% 0.0%
	2	2	bar/19 13/9	-2.057 ( -0.001)
			0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 100.0% 97.5% 0.0%
	3	2	bar/21 13/7	-2.057 ( -0.001)
			0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 100.0% 97.5% 0.0%
	4	2	bar/19 20/16	-2.057 ( -0.001)
			0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 100.0% 97.5% 0.0%
•	5	2	bar/15	-2.057 ( -0.001)
			0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 100.0% 97.5% 0.0%

Move number 29: Jon Royset to play 41

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 130, Jon Royset 21
Position ID: 2M6FCQLvHQAAAA Match ID: QQkmA8AAQAAA

• Jon Royset moves 3/off 1/off

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	3/off 1/off	+2.054
			100.0% 97.3% 0.0% - 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
	2	2	3/off 2/1	+2.050 ( -0.004)
			100.0% 96.9% 0.0% - 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
	3	2	3/2 3/off	+2.049 ( -0.005)
			100.0% 96.8% 0.0% - 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Move number 30: Moshe Tissona to play 22

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 130, Jon Royset 17
Position ID: 9wYAAGA7FyYIAA Match ID: AQEpA8AAQAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 20/18 13/11(2) 8/6

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	13/11 8/6(3)	-2.025
			0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 100.0% 94.5% 0.0%
	2	2	20/18 8/6(3)	-2.029 ( -0.004)
			0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 100.0% 94.9% 0.0%
	3	2	20/18 13/11 8/6(2)	-2.031 ( -0.007)
			0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 100.0% 95.1% 0.0%
	4	2	13/11(2) 8/6(2)	-2.033 ( -0.008)
			0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 100.0% 95.3% 0.0%
•	5	2	20/18 13/11(2) 8/6	-2.040 ( -0.016)
			0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 100.0% 96.0% 0.0%

Annotation

Chuck Bower: Possibly Tissona has resigned himself to being gammoned and is just going through the motions. Bringing all three checkers in from the 8-point seems automatic. 20/18 looks good at first but note the awkwardness of single fives compared to 13/11 which plays nicely even with double fives.

Move number 31: Jon Royset to play 62

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 122, Jon Royset 17
Position ID: 2J5liAD3BgAAAA Match ID: QQkrA8AAQAAA

• Jon Royset moves 3/off 2/off

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	3/off 2/off	+2.035
			100.0% 95.5% 0.0% - 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
	2	2	3/1 3/off	+2.033 ( -0.002)
			100.0% 95.3% 0.0% - 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Move number 32: Moshe Tissona to play 31

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 122, Jon Royset 12
Position ID: dwEAANieZYgAAA Match ID: AYElA8AAQAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 15/12 8/7

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	9/6 8/7	-2.067
			0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 100.0% 98.4% 0.0%
	2	2	11/10 9/6	-2.067 ( -0.000)
			0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 100.0% 98.4% 0.0%
	3	2	15/14 9/6	-2.067 ( -0.000)
			0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 100.0% 98.4% 0.0%
	4	2	9/6 4/3	-2.067 ( -0.001)
			0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 100.0% 98.5% 0.0%
	5	2	18/17 9/6	-2.068 ( -0.001)
			0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 100.0% 98.5% 0.0%
•	9	2	15/12 8/7	-2.069 ( -0.002)
			0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 100.0% 98.6% 0.0%

Move number 33: Jon Royset to play 42

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 118, Jon Royset 12
Position ID: 2F5lgQB3AQAAAA Match ID: QQkqA8AAQAAA

• Jon Royset moves 3/off 2/off

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	3/off 2/off	+2.067
			100.0% 98.5% 0.0% - 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
	2	2	3/1 2/off	+2.066 ( -0.002)
			100.0% 98.3% 0.0% - 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Move number 34: Moshe Tissona to play 43

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 118, Jon Royset 7
Position ID: NwAAALZXWSAAAA Match ID: AQEuA8AAQAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 9/5 8/5

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	18/14 9/6	-2.080
			0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 100.0% 99.7% 0.0%
	2	2	9/6 7/3	-2.080 ( -0.000)
			0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 100.0% 99.7% 0.0%
	3	2	9/6 8/4	-2.080 ( -0.000)
			0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 100.0% 99.7% 0.0%
•	4	2	9/5 8/5	-2.080 ( -0.000)
			0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 100.0% 99.7% 0.0%
	5	2	8/5 7/3	-2.080 ( -0.000)
			0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 100.0% 99.7% 0.0%

Move number 35: Jon Royset to play 42

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 111, Jon Royset 7
Position ID: 2HthgQA3AAAAAA Match ID: QQkqA8AAQAAA

• Jon Royset moves 2/off(2)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	2/off(2)	+1.960
			100.0% 99.1% 0.0% - 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Game statistics for game 15
Player	Moshe Tissona	Jon Royset
Checker play statistics
Total moves	15	19
Unforced moves	10	17
Moves marked very good	0	0
Moves marked good	0	0
Moves marked interesting	0	0
Moves unmarked	13	19
Moves marked doubtful	1	0
Moves marked bad	1	0
Moves marked very bad	0	0
Error rate (total)	-0.146 ( -0.640%)	-0.016 ( -0.126%)
Error rate (pr. move)	-0.015 ( -0.064% )	-0.001 ( -0.007%)
Chequer play rating	Intermediate	Supernatural
Luck statistics
Rolls marked very lucky	0	0
Rolls marked lucky	0	0
Rolls unmarked	14	19
Rolls marked unlucky	1	0
Rolls marked very unlucky	0	0
Luck rate (total)	-0.892 ( -5.854%)	+1.213 ( +9.019%)
Luck rate (pr. move)	-0.059 ( -0.390%)	+0.064 ( +0.475%)
Luck rating	Better luck next time	Go to Las Vegas immediately
Cube statistics
Total cube decisions	16	3
Close or actual cube decisions	1	3
Doubles	0	1
Takes	1	0
Passes	0	0
Missed doubles around DP	0	0
Missed doubles around TG	0	0
Wrong doubles around DP	0	0
Wrong doubles around TG	0	0
Wrong takes	0	0
Wrong passes	0	0
Error rate (total)	0	0
Error rate (per cube decision)	0	0
Cube decision rating	Supernatural	Supernatural
Overall rating
Error rate (total)	-0.146 ( -0.640%)	-0.016 ( -0.126%)
Error rate (per decision)	-0.013 ( -0.058% )	-0.001 ( -0.006%)
Equivalent Snowie error rate	-4.3	-0.5
Overall rating	Intermediate	Supernatural

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Output generated Sat Aug 09 03:09:48 2003 by GNU Backgammon 0.14-devel 1.1238 030804 (HTML Export version 1.126)