Game number 16

Moshe Tissona (12 pts) vs. Jon Royset (12 pts) (Match to 25)

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Match Information

Moshe Tissona's rating: 0 (Exp 0)
Jon Royset's rating: 0 (Exp 0)
Date: July 13, 2003
Event: World Championship 2003
Round: Final
Place: Monte Carlo
Annotator: Casper van der Tak, Chuck Bower, Alex Zamanian, Tom Suzanski, Christian Toth, and GNU 0.14

Move number 1: Moshe Tissona to play 31

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 167, Jon Royset 167
Position ID: 4HPwATDgc/ABMA Match ID: MIAlA8AAYAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 8/5 6/5

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	8/5 6/5	+0.254
			56.1% 17.4% 0.8% - 43.9% 11.7% 0.4%
	2	2	24/23 13/10	+0.018 ( -0.236)
			50.3% 14.2% 0.6% - 49.7% 13.5% 0.5%
	3	2	13/9	+0.005 ( -0.248)
			49.9% 14.6% 0.6% - 50.1% 13.8% 0.6%
	4	2	13/10 6/5	-0.000 ( -0.254)
			50.2% 14.1% 0.6% - 49.8% 14.4% 0.8%
	5	2	24/20	-0.001 ( -0.255)
			50.2% 12.7% 0.6% - 49.8% 13.3% 0.4%

Move number 2: Jon Royset to play 32

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 163, Jon Royset 167
Position ID: sGfwATDgc/ABMA Match ID: cIkpA8AAYAAA

• Jon Royset moves 24/21 13/11

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	24/22 13/10	-0.311
			42.9% 11.2% 0.5% - 57.1% 18.5% 0.9%
•	2	2	24/21 13/11	-0.322 ( -0.011)
			42.9% 11.0% 0.5% - 57.1% 18.5% 0.9%
	3	2	24/22 24/21	-0.338 ( -0.026)
			42.8% 10.4% 0.5% - 57.2% 18.9% 0.7%
	4	2	13/11 13/10	-0.365 ( -0.054)
			41.5% 11.7% 0.5% - 58.5% 18.9% 1.3%
	5	2	13/8	-0.372 ( -0.061)
			41.4% 11.0% 0.5% - 58.6% 19.3% 1.0%

Annotation

Alex Zamanian: With an opening 3-2, it is a close call between splitting and bringing two builders down from the midpoint with 13/10 13/11. After White has made his 5 point however, it is a significant error to bring the builders down. The difference is due to two reasons. White's 8 point is stripped, so it's important to put pressure on it - if White uses one of the checkers on the 8 to build a new point, Red will get a shot at the remaining checker. Also, White has begun to build his prime, so it's important for Red to counter that prime by getting his checkers moving or by making an advanced anchor.

Red chooses the more natural split, 24/21 13/11 which goes after the best advanced anchor possible, but 24/22 13/10, staying off the point that White most wants to make, and getting a more valuable builder (a builder on the 10 point is slightly more valuable than a builder on the 11 point), is also reasonable.

Move number 3: Moshe Tissona to play 31

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 163, Jon Royset 162
Position ID: 4HPkASKwZ/ABMA Match ID: MIElA8AAYAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 24/21 6/5

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	24/21 6/5	+0.194
			54.9% 14.9% 0.5% - 45.1% 11.0% 0.3%
	2	2	24/20	+0.156 ( -0.038)
			54.0% 15.0% 0.7% - 46.0% 12.0% 0.4%
	3	2	24/23 24/21	+0.143 ( -0.052)
			53.8% 13.8% 0.5% - 46.2% 11.2% 0.3%
	4	2	13/10 6/5	+0.127 ( -0.068)
			53.0% 15.4% 0.6% - 47.0% 12.3% 0.5%
	5	2	24/23 13/10	+0.122 ( -0.073)
			53.0% 15.4% 0.6% - 47.0% 12.6% 0.5%

Annotation

Alex Zamanian: White chooses the play most everyone would make, but it’s worth noting that splitting to the 20 point is almost as good, despite leaving worse builders and giving Red a few extra point on head numbers.

Everyone has read Magriel warning against coming under the gun. However, the risk from coming under the gun of 3 builders is often overstated when the splitter has the stronger board, as White does here. The downside of giving your opponent extra attacking chances is often outweighed by the upside of the extra contact and distraction vig created.

Move number 4: Jon Royset to play 61

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 159, Jon Royset 162
Position ID: cGfwASLgc+QBIg Match ID: cAknA8AAYAAA

• Jon Royset moves 11/5 6/5

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	11/5 6/5	-0.078
			48.3% 12.6% 0.5% - 51.7% 14.7% 0.5%
	2	2	13/7 8/7	-0.307 ( -0.228)
			43.1% 10.8% 0.4% - 56.9% 17.8% 0.7%
	3	2	11/4*	-0.387 ( -0.308)
			41.1% 10.6% 0.4% - 58.9% 18.7% 0.9%
	4	0	21/14	-0.419 ( -0.341)
			40.4% 8.6% 0.2% - 59.6% 19.5% 0.8%
	5	0	13/6	-0.447 ( -0.369)
			39.1% 9.5% 0.3% - 60.9% 19.7% 0.8%

Move number 5: Moshe Tissona to play 54

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 159, Jon Royset 155
Position ID: sOfgASJwZ/ABIg Match ID: MIEyA8AAYAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 13/4*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	13/4*	+0.017
			50.4% 16.3% 0.7% - 49.6% 15.6% 0.7%
	2	2	6/1* 5/1	-0.048 ( -0.065)
			48.3% 15.0% 0.3% - 51.7% 14.3% 0.5%
	3	2	13/8 5/1*	-0.163 ( -0.181)
			46.2% 12.9% 0.4% - 53.8% 16.2% 0.7%
	4	2	21/16 8/4*	-0.213 ( -0.230)
			46.2% 13.5% 0.6% - 53.8% 20.1% 1.4%
	5	2	13/9 13/8	-0.214 ( -0.232)
			45.0% 12.5% 0.5% - 55.0% 17.1% 0.8%

Annotation

Alex Zamanian: 6/1* 5/1 is reasonable, of course, but 13/4* is much more fluid and keeps both game plans of blitzing and priming alive.

Move number 6: Jon Royset to play 11

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 150, Jon Royset 159
Position ID: 6M7gASKw5+ABUA Match ID: cIkkA8AAYAAA

• Jon Royset moves bar/21*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/21*	+0.238
			55.8% 17.1% 0.9% - 44.2% 12.2% 0.4%
	2	2	bar/23 6/4*	+0.012 ( -0.226)
			50.6% 17.7% 1.1% - 49.4% 18.0% 1.0%
	3	2	bar/23 5/4*(2)	-0.021 ( -0.258)
			49.2% 16.6% 0.9% - 50.8% 16.4% 0.7%
	4	0	bar/24 6/4* 6/5	-0.117 ( -0.355)
			47.7% 15.5% 0.8% - 52.3% 18.9% 1.6%
	5	0	bar/24 6/4*/3	-0.136 ( -0.373)
			47.1% 15.4% 0.8% - 52.9% 19.0% 1.6%

Move number 7: Moshe Tissona to play 31

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 171, Jon Royset 155
Position ID: sOfgASJwZ/AAUQ Match ID: MIElA8AAYAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves bar/22 5/4*

Alert: bad move ( -0.108)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	bar/21	-0.084
			47.4% 11.9% 0.3% - 52.6% 12.4% 0.4%
•	2	2	bar/22 5/4*	-0.193 ( -0.108)
			46.6% 13.4% 0.6% - 53.4% 19.5% 1.3%
	3	2	bar/24 21/18	-0.288 ( -0.204)
			43.8% 11.9% 0.5% - 56.2% 19.0% 1.2%
	4	2	bar/22 24/23	-0.325 ( -0.241)
			42.9% 11.3% 0.4% - 57.1% 19.3% 0.9%
	5	2	bar/22 6/5	-0.359 ( -0.275)
			42.2% 11.1% 0.4% - 57.8% 19.8% 1.1%

Annotation

Alex Zamanian: Locking up important points tends to be better than speculative loose hitting plays in your homeboard. A loose hit is sort of half an improvement. Great if you get away with it, pretty bad if you don't. If there is a lot to be gained by getting away with a loose hit, it might be worth not making an important point, but here the potential gain just isn't large enough. The correct B/21 is a full improvement.

Casper van der Tak: B/21 builds an anchor, which is Tissona's highest priority with three checkers back and behind in the race. The hit leaves 4 blots and is a bit loose.

Move number 8: Jon Royset to play 32

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 167, Jon Royset 159
Position ID: aGfwACWw5+ABUA Match ID: cIkpA8AAYAAA

• Jon Royset moves bar/23 24/21*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/23 24/21*	+0.444
			59.5% 21.4% 1.4% - 40.5% 10.1% 0.3%
	2	2	bar/22 6/4*	+0.313 ( -0.131)
			56.3% 21.3% 1.8% - 43.7% 13.4% 0.7%
	3	2	bar/23 6/3*	+0.200 ( -0.244)
			53.8% 20.1% 1.6% - 46.2% 14.6% 0.7%
	4	2	bar/22 24/22	+0.123 ( -0.321)
			52.9% 15.0% 0.6% - 47.1% 12.0% 0.4%
	5	0	bar/23 8/5	+0.102 ( -0.341)
			51.9% 17.9% 1.1% - 48.1% 14.6% 0.5%

Move number 9: Moshe Tissona to play 54

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 188, Jon Royset 154
Position ID: sOfgARKwM3iAUg Match ID: MIEyA8AAYAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves bar/21 13/8

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/21 13/8	-0.218
			44.9% 11.1% 0.3% - 55.1% 16.5% 0.6%
	2	2	bar/16	-0.455 ( -0.237)
			41.7% 10.0% 0.4% - 58.3% 24.9% 1.9%
	3	2	bar/21 6/1	-0.461 ( -0.243)
			39.7% 9.4% 0.2% - 60.3% 21.0% 0.9%
	4	0	bar/21 8/3	-0.585 ( -0.367)
			39.0% 8.8% 0.2% - 61.0% 28.0% 2.3%

Move number 10: Jon Royset to play 65

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 179, Jon Royset 154
Position ID: sHNwgCWw5+ABEg Match ID: cAk3A8AAYAAA

• Jon Royset moves 21/10

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	21/10	+0.210
			55.3% 16.3% 0.7% - 44.7% 12.0% 0.3%
	2	2	21/15 8/3*	+0.191 ( -0.019)
			54.6% 17.5% 0.8% - 45.4% 13.1% 0.5%
	3	2	23/18 21/15	+0.185 ( -0.025)
			55.4% 15.0% 0.6% - 44.6% 13.0% 0.4%
	4	2	21/15 13/8	+0.175 ( -0.035)
			54.4% 16.1% 0.6% - 45.6% 12.6% 0.3%
	5	2	21/15 6/1*	+0.154 ( -0.056)
			54.0% 16.2% 0.5% - 46.0% 13.3% 0.4%

Annotation

Alex Zamanian: 21/10 is the thematic play. Red simply tries to race when he's up the race. 21/16 8/3* is reasonable only because it duplicates White's 3s and leaves about the same number of shots.

Move number 11: Moshe Tissona to play 11

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 179, Jon Royset 143
Position ID: sOfEAxCwc3CAJQ Match ID: MIEkA8AAYAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 24/22 8/7 6/5

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	24/22 6/4	-0.285
			44.2% 9.9% 0.2% - 55.8% 19.0% 0.7%
•	2	2	24/22 8/7 6/5	-0.298 ( -0.012)
			43.8% 10.0% 0.2% - 56.2% 19.1% 0.7%
	3	2	24/22 8/6	-0.315 ( -0.030)
			42.3% 10.2% 0.2% - 57.7% 17.2% 0.6%
	4	2	24/22 8/7(2)	-0.320 ( -0.034)
			43.0% 9.3% 0.2% - 57.0% 18.4% 0.6%
	5	2	24/22 5/4(2)	-0.342 ( -0.056)
			41.8% 9.7% 0.2% - 58.2% 17.6% 0.6%

Annotation

Alex Zamanian: After locking up the second anchor, White can take liberties and slot the points he wants to make. 24/22 6/4, 24/22 8/7 6/5, and 24/22 8/7(2) are all reasonable, and likely very close. I prefer 24/22 8/7(2) which keeps the spare in the right place and makes a nice little 3-prime which may soon grow longer.

Move number 12: Jon Royset to play 41

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 175, Jon Royset 143
Position ID: cGtwgA2w58QDEA Match ID: cAkmA8AAYAAA

• Jon Royset moves 23/18*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	23/18*	+0.509
			61.6% 21.2% 0.9% - 38.4% 8.3% 0.2%
	2	2	13/9 10/9	+0.420 ( -0.089)
			59.8% 19.1% 0.7% - 40.2% 8.9% 0.2%
	3	2	23/22 10/6	+0.269 ( -0.240)
			56.6% 16.3% 0.6% - 43.4% 10.5% 0.2%
	4	2	10/5	+0.239 ( -0.270)
			55.3% 17.2% 0.6% - 44.7% 10.5% 0.2%
	5	0	13/8	+0.125 ( -0.384)
			52.8% 15.8% 0.5% - 47.2% 12.4% 0.4%

Move number 13: Moshe Tissona to play 31

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 193, Jon Royset 138
Position ID: sOfEgwBwMzjARg Match ID: MIElA8AAYAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves bar/22 8/7*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/22 8/7*	-0.383
			42.7% 9.5% 0.2% - 57.3% 22.8% 1.1%
	2	2	bar/21	-0.451 ( -0.067)
			40.0% 7.5% 0.1% - 60.0% 19.7% 0.7%
	3	2	bar/22 5/4	-0.460 ( -0.077)
			39.9% 7.5% 0.1% - 60.1% 20.1% 0.8%
	4	2	bar/24 13/10	-0.477 ( -0.093)
			40.5% 8.0% 0.1% - 59.5% 22.9% 1.2%
	5	2	bar/24 8/5	-0.552 ( -0.169)
			38.7% 7.4% 0.1% - 61.3% 23.5% 1.2%

Move number 14: Jon Royset to play 21

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 189, Jon Royset 145
Position ID: cCs4wA6w58QDQA Match ID: cAklA8AAYAAA

• Jon Royset moves bar/23 6/5

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/23 6/5	+0.473
			60.6% 21.9% 0.9% - 39.4% 9.2% 0.2%
	2	2	bar/22	+0.450 ( -0.023)
			60.3% 21.5% 1.0% - 39.7% 9.9% 0.3%
	3	2	bar/24 13/11	+0.427 ( -0.047)
			59.2% 22.5% 1.0% - 40.8% 10.2% 0.3%
	4	2	bar/23 10/9	+0.419 ( -0.054)
			59.6% 21.1% 0.9% - 40.4% 10.2% 0.3%
	5	2	bar/24 10/8	+0.404 ( -0.069)
			59.0% 20.4% 0.7% - 41.0% 9.4% 0.2%

Annotation

Alex Zamanian: Though White will likely hit Red's checker on the 10-point if he can, notice it's no bargain for White, since he likely has to give up the 21-point anchor to hit, and 6s can be played productively elsewhere by moving 13/7. Thus, Red is better using his numbers to improve his position rather than playing B/24 10/8.

B/22 uses the whole roll to try to escape which Red would like very much to do, but B/23 6/5 does two good things: it helps with escaping and gives Red better builders.

Move number 15: Moshe Tissona to play 21

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 189, Jon Royset 142
Position ID: cOfEAxBwKzjADg Match ID: MAElA8AAYAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 22/21 8/6

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	13/11 8/7	-0.392
			41.9% 8.7% 0.2% - 58.1% 20.7% 0.8%
	2	2	8/7 5/3	-0.455 ( -0.063)
			41.1% 7.9% 0.1% - 58.9% 22.8% 1.0%
•	3	2	22/21 8/6	-0.458 ( -0.066)
			40.6% 8.3% 0.2% - 59.4% 22.5% 1.0%
	4	2	22/21 13/11	-0.485 ( -0.093)
			41.9% 7.9% 0.2% - 58.1% 26.9% 1.6%
	5	2	8/6 5/4	-0.489 ( -0.097)
			41.2% 7.9% 0.2% - 58.8% 25.5% 1.4%

Annotation

Alex Zamanian: White prepares to leap with a back checker by playing 22/21 then finds his best 2. But there's no great hurry to move that back checker up, since it's in an OK position to escape already, and White has plenty of time before he has to give something up. Also, he still has reasonable chances to win going forward, so he doesn't need to commit to a backgame just yet. White should simply improve his forward position by playing 13/11 8/7.

Casper van der Tak: 13/11 8/7 is the logical play - it builds a useful point in Tissona's prime and brings a builder for further development (not that there is another reasonable 2). Tissona's play does not make an additional point and leaves a blot for no purpose - he is not yet committed to a backgame, so rectifying timing should not be a consideration.

Move number 16: Jon Royset to play 51

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 186, Jon Royset 142
Position ID: cBc4wA1w58QDEA Match ID: cIkmA8AAYAAA

• Jon Royset moves 23/18* 6/5

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	23/18*/17	+0.673
			63.2% 26.5% 1.3% - 36.8% 7.9% 0.2%
	2	2	23/18* 10/9	+0.671 ( -0.001)
			63.2% 26.4% 1.3% - 36.8% 7.9% 0.2%
•	3	2	23/18* 6/5	+0.627 ( -0.045)
			62.3% 26.0% 1.3% - 37.7% 8.0% 0.2%
	4	2	23/18* 8/7	+0.619 ( -0.054)
			62.4% 25.7% 1.3% - 37.6% 8.9% 0.3%
	5	2	23/22 10/5	+0.444 ( -0.229)
			60.2% 20.3% 0.9% - 39.8% 9.0% 0.2%

Annotation

Alex Zamanian: Red chooses a strange play in order to duplicate 6s. Though Red strongly prefers not to be hit, it is simply not worth the loss in flexibility. Spares on the 6 point are worth more than they look. He should simply play 23/18*/17, or its sister 23/18* 10/9, which leaves more shots on Red's side of the board, but threatens to make the 9 point which is of more value than the 10 point in this position. The 9 point blocks both anchors, while the 10 point only blocks the 4 point anchor.

Casper van der Tak: 23/18* 6/5 duplicates 6s, but at a high cost in flexibility. More logical plays are 23/18*/17 and 23/18* 10/9.

Move number 17: Moshe Tissona to play 62

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 204, Jon Royset 136
Position ID: 8ObEgwBwBxzgRg Match ID: MAErA8AAYAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves bar/23 21/15*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/23 21/15*	-0.323
			43.8% 11.0% 0.4% - 56.2% 22.0% 1.2%
	2	2	bar/23 13/7*	-0.411 ( -0.088)
			42.5% 9.6% 0.3% - 57.5% 24.4% 1.4%
	3	0	bar/23 22/16	-0.840 ( -0.517)
			36.0% 6.7% 0.1% - 64.0% 31.4% 2.2%

Move number 18: Jon Royset to play 66

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 196, Jon Royset 151
Position ID: cAecwBbw5uBBQA Match ID: cAk7A8AAYAAA

• Jon Royset cannot move

#		Ply	Move	Equity
			Cannot move

Move number 19: Moshe Tissona to play 51

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 196, Jon Royset 151
Position ID: 8ObgQUBwB5zAFg Match ID: MIEmA8AAYAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 13/7*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	13/7*	-0.171
			46.8% 14.1% 0.6% - 53.2% 20.0% 1.1%
	2	2	23/22 15/10	-0.299 ( -0.128)
			43.8% 11.6% 0.4% - 56.2% 20.6% 1.0%
	3	2	23/18 15/14	-0.306 ( -0.134)
			44.0% 11.1% 0.4% - 56.1% 21.1% 1.1%
	4	2	15/10 5/4	-0.306 ( -0.135)
			45.1% 10.8% 0.3% - 54.9% 23.3% 1.6%
	5	2	21/15	-0.309 ( -0.138)
			43.6% 11.7% 0.4% - 56.4% 20.7% 1.1%

Move number 20: Jon Royset to play 61

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 190, Jon Royset 158
Position ID: cBeYwBbw5uABYA Match ID: cAknA8AAYAAA

• Jon Royset moves bar/24

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	bar/24	+0.182
			54.1% 19.1% 1.0% - 45.9% 14.3% 0.6%

Move number 21: Moshe Tissona to play 63

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 190, Jon Royset 157
Position ID: 8ObgAVBwF5jAFg Match ID: MAEvA8AAYAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 13/10 13/7

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	13/10 13/7	-0.165
			46.6% 14.4% 0.7% - 53.4% 19.5% 0.9%
	2	2	21/18 21/15	-0.277 ( -0.113)
			44.9% 12.7% 0.5% - 55.1% 22.2% 1.4%
	3	2	21/18 13/7	-0.279 ( -0.114)
			45.0% 13.4% 0.7% - 55.0% 23.7% 1.8%
	4	2	21/15 7/4	-0.287 ( -0.123)
			45.1% 12.9% 0.5% - 54.9% 23.2% 1.5%
	5	2	15/9 7/4	-0.299 ( -0.135)
			44.6% 12.6% 0.5% - 55.4% 23.2% 1.5%

Move number 22: Jon Royset to play 32

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 181, Jon Royset 157
Position ID: cDeCwBbw5uABUA Match ID: cIkpA8AAYAAA

• Jon Royset moves bar/23 13/10*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/23 13/10*	+0.410
			58.9% 23.8% 1.2% - 41.1% 12.6% 0.5%
	2	2	bar/22 24/22	+0.296 ( -0.114)
			57.3% 18.3% 0.7% - 42.7% 12.0% 0.3%
	3	2	bar/23 24/21	+0.241 ( -0.168)
			55.7% 19.9% 1.0% - 44.3% 14.2% 0.5%
	4	2	bar/22 8/6	+0.221 ( -0.189)
			55.0% 19.5% 0.9% - 45.0% 13.8% 0.5%
	5	2	bar/23 5/2*	+0.174 ( -0.235)
			54.4% 18.5% 0.8% - 45.6% 14.9% 0.6%

Move number 23: Moshe Tissona to play 22

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 191, Jon Royset 152
Position ID: 8ObEAShwNwJgSw Match ID: MAEpA8AAYAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves bar/21 23/21 10/8

Alert: very bad move ( -0.164)

Ply

Move

Equity

bar/21 10/6

-0.333

42.0%	10.9%	0.5%	-	58.0%	19.6%	0.7%	-0.253	-0.333
0.6%	0.4%	0.0%	-	0.6%	0.6%	0.2%	0.017	0.043

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

109 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1176209152

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful 100% speed [world class]

Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed

Different evaluations after 8 plies:

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

bar/21 6/2*

-0.356 ( -0.022)

43.4%	10.7%	0.7%	-	56.6%	24.6%	1.3%	-0.284	-0.356
0.8%	0.6%	0.1%	-	0.8%	0.7%	0.2%	0.020	0.051

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

109 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1176209152 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful 100% speed [world class]

Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed

Different evaluations after 8 plies:

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

bar/21 23/21 6/4

-0.365 ( -0.032)

43.7%	9.7%	0.5%	-	56.3%	25.3%	0.9%	-0.292	-0.365
0.8%	0.6%	0.1%	-	0.8%	0.7%	0.3%	0.023	0.055

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

109 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1176209152 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful 100% speed [world class]

Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed

Different evaluations after 8 plies:

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

bar/23 10/4

-0.474 ( -0.140)

41.2%	10.5%	0.3%	-	58.8%	25.0%	1.5%	-0.339	-0.474
0.8%	0.7%	0.1%	-	0.8%	0.6%	0.2%	0.023	0.056

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

109 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1176209152 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful 100% speed [world class]

Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed

Different evaluations after 8 plies:

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

•

bar/21 23/21 10/8

-0.498 ( -0.164)

40.2%	9.8%	0.3%	-	59.8%	23.7%	0.9%	-0.347	-0.498
0.7%	0.6%	0.1%	-	0.7%	0.7%	0.2%	0.020	0.051

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

109 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1176209152 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful 100% speed [world class]

Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed

Different evaluations after 8 plies:

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Annotation

Alex Zamanian: White doesn't have the timing to keep all three anchors, as he is almost out of checkers to play on his side of the board before his position deteriorates. He would prefer to keep his front-most anchors because he has a good chance to win this game going forward. So he must play B/21 with the first two 2s. Since leaving that last checker on the 23 point doesn't give White any extra numbers to escape, playing 23/21 looks good.

After B/21 23/21, 6/4 is better than 10/8 on almost all counts. 6/4 starts a very valuable point, gives fewer numbers for Red that hit and escape, and provides better outfield coverage. It leaves only slightly more shot numbers, and getting hit is no big deal since White has 6 men back and two anchors. However, I am surprised the rollout has such a big difference between the plays.

Casper van der Tak: Many possibilities. What should Tissona be doing? First of all, note that he is not committed to playing a backgame. He has 2 of Royset's checkers behind a three-prime, and his own back checkers are not primed. Therefore, he has good possibilities to win going forward. To maintain these chances, it may be a good idea to move spares to the 21-point; these checkers can be used to make outfield points, or can be mobilized to continue prime building. So B/21 23/21. After that, 6/4 slots the next point of the prime and seems logical. In contrast 10/8 just leaves a shot for Royset to hit, without offering the chances to cover and make the next point in line. There is no doubt in my mind that 6/4 is much stronger than 10/8 after B/21 23/21.

A different approach is B/23 10/4. This is a very flexible play, offering opportunities to win forward, backward and sideways, depending on Tissona's dice. The rollout indicates that this play is bad, but the cubeless numbers are quite close, and something seems to be wrong in the cube adjustment here. I also do not trust the bots play here, especially after B/23 10/4. I guess that I would play B/23 10/4 OTB.

Move number 24: Jon Royset to play 63

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 183, Jon Royset 152
Position ID: cLcA4A3w5sQBKA Match ID: cAkvA8AAYAAA

• Jon Royset moves 23/17* 13/10

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	23/17* 13/10	+0.958
			69.4% 33.7% 1.5% - 30.6% 7.2% 0.2%
	2	2	24/21 23/17*	+0.853 ( -0.105)
			66.7% 30.1% 1.3% - 33.3% 8.6% 0.3%
	3	2	23/17*/14	+0.793 ( -0.165)
			65.5% 30.9% 1.3% - 34.5% 9.2% 0.3%
	4	2	23/17* 10/7	+0.732 ( -0.226)
			64.9% 29.1% 1.3% - 35.1% 9.8% 0.4%
	5	2	13/7 10/7	+0.671 ( -0.286)
			64.1% 26.6% 1.0% - 35.9% 9.5% 0.3%

Move number 25: Moshe Tissona to play 53

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 200, Jon Royset 143
Position ID: 8OaMISBwNwDwRg Match ID: MIEuA8AAYAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves bar/22 21/16

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/22 21/16	-0.586
			38.9% 8.3% 0.3% - 61.1% 26.3% 1.2%
	2	2	bar/22 6/1*	-1.000 ( -0.414)
			31.2% 5.6% 0.2% - 68.8% 32.2% 1.5%
	3	2	bar/22 7/2	-1.000 ( -0.414)
			30.7% 5.2% 0.2% - 69.3% 37.3% 2.3%

Move number 26: Jon Royset to play 21

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 192, Jon Royset 143
Position ID: cDeA4A7w5owhIA Match ID: cAklA8AAYAAA

• Jon Royset moves 24/22 17/16

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		+0.416	(Money: +0.411)
	61.1% 26.3% 1.2% - 38.9% 8.3% 0.3%
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.586
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	(+0.414)
3.	Double, take	+0.549	(-0.036)
Proper cube action:		No double, take (8.0%)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	17/15 10/9*	+0.713
			64.2% 30.5% 1.4% - 35.8% 10.3% 0.4%
•	2	2	24/22 17/16	+0.704 ( -0.009)
			65.0% 24.8% 1.0% - 35.0% 8.0% 0.2%
	3	2	24/22 10/9*	+0.688 ( -0.025)
			63.9% 29.4% 1.3% - 36.1% 10.9% 0.5%
	4	2	24/21	+0.672 ( -0.040)
			64.4% 24.7% 1.0% - 35.6% 8.6% 0.2%
	5	2	24/23 8/6	+0.641 ( -0.072)
			63.6% 24.9% 1.0% - 36.4% 8.5% 0.2%

Annotation

Alex Zamanian:

Cube decision

Red certainly has a nice edge, but the position isn't that volatile, and White will very likely have a comfortable take for many rolls to come. This is typical of backgame positions, so the player who is defending against the backgame should wait until his opponent has a tough take/pass decision before doubling.

Checker play

If Red chooses to hit, I prefer 10/9* 24/22 to 10/9* 17/15. Although 10/9* 17/15 will allow Red more numbers to make a block if he doesn't get hit, 10/9* 24/22 still leaves good building potential, and works on the problem of escaping the back checker.

If Red chooses not to hit, I prefer 24/22 17/16 to 24/21. Since White has many checkers back, he should want to play very purely by making his points in order. He doesn't want to waste any of his few (remaining, precious) forward checkers by putting them too deep in his homeboard. Thus the 4 point is much more valuable to White than the 3 point.

If Red plays 24/21, he is stepping up to exactly the point White wants to make, thus White will happily hit him loose. If Red plays 24/22, White will probably still hit Red loose, but it will be awkward for him, sending a checker deeper than he prefers to. It appears that forcing White to play a little more awkwardly is good compensation for the fewer escaping numbers.

So should Red hit or not? If Red doesn't hit, he gives White a lot of freedom. He will probably make another anchor on the 16 point which Red may have problems getting past. Not hitting may also allow White to do good things on his front position too.

How do things look if Red hits? White will have almost the equivalent of a double shot. All 5s and 6s except for 66 55 and 65 will hit as well as 33 -- 17 numbers. If Red gets hit, it is bad for him, but it's not the end of the world, he'll just have one more checker to escape White's currently small block. If Red gets missed, it's good for him, but not great, he'll be able to improve his blocking position, but White will still have counter-play thanks to his two anchors.

So what's the answer? How is anyone supposed to figure this out? This is a tough problem, and over the board, no player will be able to say for certain what the right play is here. One simply must weigh the plusses and minuses of each play and make one's best guess.

My inclination is that hitting is worth the risk. The downside isn't big, and if Red gets away with it, he might be able to cube White within the next few rolls due to the strength of his block. If Red leaves White alone, White will have a strong game regardless.

Move number 27: Moshe Tissona to play 32

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 192, Jon Royset 140
Position ID: 8OaMEQhwN4DgDg Match ID: MIEpA8AAYAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 6/3* 5/3

Ply

Move

Equity

•

6/3* 5/3

-0.474

40.1%	8.8%	0.5%	-	59.9%	19.9%	0.8%	-0.314	-0.474
0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	-	0.3%	0.3%	0.1%	0.009	0.021

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175229184

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed

21/16

-0.489 ( -0.015)

39.5%	7.4%	0.2%	-	60.5%	19.0%	0.6%	-0.336	-0.489
0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	-	0.3%	0.3%	0.1%	0.009	0.020

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175229184

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed

21/18 5/3*

-0.675 ( -0.201)

38.2% 7.6% 0.3% - 61.8% 29.8% 1.8%

16/11

-0.725 ( -0.251)

36.0% 6.7% 0.2% - 64.0% 26.1% 1.1%

16/13 5/3*

-0.739 ( -0.265)

37.0% 6.9% 0.2% - 63.0% 29.4% 1.6%

Annotation

Alex Zamanian: White can improve his defensive position by playing 21/16, or he can force Red back by playing 6/3* 5/3. Forcing Red back doesn't do a whole lot since White doesn't have enough checkers to prime or close out Red. It does distract Red and give White time to mobilize his back checkers, and it also gives White some extra chances to hit that second Red checker floating around. If it weren't for that other loose checker, White would be better off taking the sure positional gain of playing 21/16. However, the potential tactical gain from picking up that second checker makes 6/3* 5/3 the right play.

Move number 28: Jon Royset to play 64

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 187, Jon Royset 143
Position ID: zDaA4A7w5owRQA Match ID: cAkzA8AAYAAA

• Jon Royset moves bar/21 16/10

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/21 16/10	+0.736
			65.6% 24.4% 1.0% - 34.4% 7.4% 0.2%
	2	2	bar/15	+0.641 ( -0.096)
			64.4% 24.2% 0.9% - 35.6% 9.2% 0.3%
	3	2	bar/21 8/2	+0.580 ( -0.156)
			62.3% 25.2% 1.1% - 37.7% 10.8% 0.4%
	4	0	bar/21 13/7	+0.148 ( -0.588)
			53.3% 21.4% 0.9% - 46.7% 17.2% 0.9%

Move number 29: Moshe Tissona to play 54

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 187, Jon Royset 133
Position ID: 8OYcAwTMNoDgDg Match ID: MIEyA8AAYAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 22/18 21/16

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	22/18 21/16	-0.504
			39.0% 7.4% 0.1% - 61.0% 20.8% 0.7%
	2	2	22/13	-0.624 ( -0.120)
			37.2% 6.7% 0.2% - 62.8% 23.1% 0.8%
	3	2	22/18 16/11	-0.694 ( -0.190)
			35.9% 6.4% 0.1% - 64.1% 24.3% 0.9%
	4	0	21/16 7/3	-0.821 ( -0.317)
			33.5% 6.0% 0.1% - 66.5% 24.8% 0.7%
	5	0	16/7	-0.871 ( -0.367)
			31.9% 5.6% 0.1% - 68.1% 23.1% 0.5%

Move number 30: Jon Royset to play 64

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 178, Jon Royset 133
Position ID: zDaAiQ3w5hwDBA Match ID: cAkzA8AAYAAA

• Jon Royset moves 21/17 8/2

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		+0.362	(Money: +0.359)
	61.0% 20.8% 0.7% - 39.0% 7.4% 0.1%
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.504
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	(+0.496)
3.	Double, take	+0.447	(-0.057)
Proper cube action:		No double, take (10.3%)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	21/11	+0.526
			62.2% 18.8% 0.8% - 37.8% 8.3% 0.2%
•	2	2	21/17 8/2	+0.501 ( -0.025)
			61.8% 19.9% 0.9% - 38.2% 8.6% 0.2%
	3	2	21/17 13/7*	+0.486 ( -0.040)
			60.1% 21.7% 0.9% - 39.9% 10.4% 0.4%
	4	2	21/15 10/6	+0.449 ( -0.077)
			60.4% 18.9% 0.9% - 39.6% 9.0% 0.2%
	5	2	10/6 8/2	+0.421 ( -0.105)
			58.9% 22.6% 1.2% - 41.1% 10.1% 0.3%

Annotation

Alex Zamanian: Hitting with 13/7* 21/17 isn't right. The downside of leaving 3 blots lying around against the stronger board is just too high a price to pay for the potential benefit of clearing the midpoint. White would still have a decent game even if Red were to get away with hitting.

22/11 leaves 20 shots but keeps all men in play, 20/17 8/2 leaves 7 shots but buries a valuable checker. Getting hit isn't terrible for Red, since White doesn't have enough checkers near his homeboard to form a formidable block, and Red doesn't have any other blots lying around. It looks worth leaving 13 extra shots in order to greatly increase the chances of building the valuable bar point. 22/11 is the play.

Move number 31: Moshe Tissona to play 55

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 178, Jon Royset 123
Position ID: 4s0cQwDMNoCJDQ Match ID: MIE2A8AAYAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 18/8* 16/11(2)

Alert: lucky roll! ( +0.376)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	21/11 18/8*	-0.024
			49.7% 14.9% 0.4% - 50.3% 15.7% 0.8%
	2	2	21/16(2) 18/8*	-0.027 ( -0.003)
			49.1% 14.1% 0.3% - 50.9% 13.8% 0.5%
•	3	2	18/8* 16/11(2)	-0.043 ( -0.019)
			48.9% 14.6% 0.4% - 51.1% 15.2% 0.7%
	4	2	18/8* 16/6	-0.097 ( -0.073)
			47.5% 14.3% 0.4% - 52.5% 15.6% 0.6%
	5	2	18/8* 7/2(2)	-0.205 ( -0.181)
			43.9% 13.6% 0.3% - 56.1% 15.2% 0.5%

Annotation

Alex Zamanian: It's now unlikely that White will be playing a well-timed backgame, so the double anchor isn't as valuable as it once was. It looks like a good time to abandon an anchor with 21/11 18/8*. Red will not be able to attack the checker on his 4 point effectively because he has that blot on his 2 point. Playing 18/8* 16/11(2) separates White's army in two.

Move number 32: Jon Royset to play 51

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 158, Jon Royset 131
Position ID: zLYYgA3izRwDQA Match ID: cIkmA8AAYAAA

• Jon Royset moves bar/24 10/5

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/24 10/5	-0.066
			47.3% 15.9% 0.7% - 52.7% 14.8% 0.6%
	2	2	bar/24 13/8	-0.102 ( -0.036)
			46.8% 14.6% 0.6% - 53.2% 14.4% 0.5%
	3	0	bar/24 6/1	-0.569 ( -0.503)
			37.4% 10.8% 0.3% - 62.6% 25.9% 1.5%

Move number 33: Moshe Tissona to play 21

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 158, Jon Royset 125
Position ID: 4psZAyDMthiADQ Match ID: MAElA8AAYAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 22/21 11/9

Alert: very bad move ( -0.369)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	11/8	+0.243
			57.2% 16.3% 0.4% - 42.8% 14.0% 0.6%
	2	2	11/10 11/9	+0.156 ( -0.087)
			55.3% 15.9% 0.3% - 44.7% 15.6% 0.7%
	3	2	11/10 8/6	+0.109 ( -0.134)
			53.4% 16.0% 0.4% - 46.6% 14.9% 0.7%
	4	2	11/9 8/7	+0.055 ( -0.188)
			52.1% 14.8% 0.3% - 47.9% 15.2% 0.6%
	5	2	8/5	+0.013 ( -0.230)
			50.7% 14.4% 0.3% - 49.3% 14.8% 0.6%
•	7	2	22/21 11/9	-0.127 ( -0.369)
			48.7% 13.7% 0.4% - 51.3% 19.4% 1.1%

Annotation

Alex Zamanian: Extending the prime with 11/8 is of course a large improvement. White's choice of 22/21 11/9 looks like it worsens his position. He gets a little more flexibility at the cost of leaving several shots, and giving up his defensive double anchor.

Casper van der Tak: Very strange! 11/8 makes a useful point in the prime, and keeps both anchors. I can't see the attraction of 11/9 22/21.

Move number 34: Jon Royset to play 65

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 155, Jon Royset 125
Position ID: zLYSgAvimxkDIA Match ID: cAk3A8AAYAAA

• Jon Royset moves 8/3* 8/2

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	8/3* 8/2	+0.018
			48.8% 20.8% 1.1% - 51.2% 15.5% 0.8%
	2	2	13/2	-0.062 ( -0.080)
			46.2% 17.5% 0.7% - 53.8% 12.8% 0.6%
	3	0	13/8 13/7	-0.420 ( -0.438)
			38.2% 12.6% 0.4% - 61.8% 17.9% 0.9%
	4	0	10/5 8/2	-0.800 ( -0.818)
			32.3% 11.6% 0.4% - 67.7% 25.2% 2.1%
	5	0	13/7 8/3*	-1.000 ( -1.018)
			31.8% 12.5% 0.6% - 68.2% 34.0% 5.9%

Annotation

Alex Zamanian: Playing 8/3* 8/2 leaves 14 shots, but gains a lot when White dances - Red will gain time to escape and pick up some of the blots in White's outfield. Hitting also makes it harder for White to improve his forward position. The downside of getting hit is pretty bad. White's offence is coming together quickly. If it was truly 14 extra shots to play 8/3* 8/2, Red would be better off playing 13/2. But 13/2 isn't perfectly safe, and leaves 6 shots. Putting White up on the bar with 8/3* 8/2 is worth the extra shots.

Move number 35: Moshe Tissona to play 43

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 158, Jon Royset 114
Position ID: lm8YAyDMthKAQw Match ID: MAEuA8AAYAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves bar/22* 9/5

Alert: lucky roll! ( +0.376)

Ply

Move

Equity

•

bar/22* 9/5

+0.452

59.2%	22.5%	1.4%	-	40.8%	13.8%	0.6%	+0.283	+0.452
0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	-	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.005	0.013

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175229184

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

bar/22* 11/7

+0.433 ( -0.018)

59.4%	21.5%	1.3%	-	40.6%	14.5%	0.6%	+0.271	+0.433
0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	-	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.006	0.015

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175229184

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

bar/22*/18

+0.425 ( -0.027)

60.1%	21.5%	1.4%	-	39.9%	15.4%	0.8%	+0.273	+0.425
0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	-	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.006	0.015

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175229184

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

bar/22* 21/17

+0.401 ( -0.051)

59.6%	21.5%	1.3%	-	40.4%	17.0%	1.3%	+0.241	+0.401
0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	-	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.006	0.015

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175229184

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

bar/22* 8/4

+0.246 ( -0.206)

57.6% 22.2% 1.1% - 42.4% 20.1% 1.6%

Annotation

Bots: Snowie prefered b/22*/18 and considered the move played to be a -0.056 error, whereas GNU approved of the move played.

Move number 36: Jon Royset to play 43

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 151, Jon Royset 136
Position ID: zG0RgAvGN4wBUA Match ID: cAkuA8AAYAAA

• Jon Royset moves bar/21 24/21

Alert: lucky roll! ( +0.541)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	bar/21 24/21	+0.179
			55.0% 15.1% 0.4% - 45.0% 12.5% 0.2%
	2	0	bar/21 5/2	-0.398 ( -0.577)
			40.7% 13.8% 0.5% - 59.4% 23.4% 1.2%
	3	0	bar/21 13/10	-0.458 ( -0.637)
			39.2% 12.9% 0.5% - 60.8% 23.6% 1.5%
	4	0	bar/21 6/3*	-0.767 ( -0.946)
			35.9% 11.9% 0.5% - 64.1% 31.7% 3.3%
	5	0	bar/21 10/7	-1.000 ( -1.179)
			31.5% 10.3% 0.3% - 68.5% 35.1% 4.3%

Move number 37: Moshe Tissona to play 54

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 151, Jon Royset 129
Position ID: xjeMAQbMbRGACw Match ID: MIEyA8AAYAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 22/13

Alert: very bad move ( -0.358)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	22/17 21/17	-0.024
			49.3% 14.2% 0.3% - 50.7% 13.9% 0.5%
	2	2	11/7 8/3	-0.248 ( -0.224)
			42.9% 12.3% 0.3% - 57.1% 14.1% 0.4%
	3	2	21/17 8/3	-0.278 ( -0.254)
			44.1% 13.5% 0.5% - 55.9% 20.7% 1.0%
	4	2	21/16 11/7	-0.299 ( -0.274)
			44.0% 13.2% 0.4% - 56.0% 22.0% 1.1%
	5	2	21/17 11/6	-0.314 ( -0.290)
			43.7% 12.3% 0.3% - 56.3% 21.8% 1.1%
•	6	2	22/13	-0.382 ( -0.358)
			41.5% 11.1% 0.3% - 58.5% 20.5% 1.1%

Annotation

Casper van der Tak: Making the 17 point with 22/17 21/17 to increase outfield control is very clear.

Move number 38: Jon Royset to play 62

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 142, Jon Royset 129
Position ID: zG2RAAfGN4wBBg Match ID: cAkrA8AAYAAA

• Jon Royset moves 21/13

Alert: unlucky roll! ( -0.558)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	21/13	-0.107
			48.6% 13.3% 0.5% - 51.4% 16.2% 0.5%
	2	2	13/11 13/7	-0.167 ( -0.060)
			45.7% 10.2% 0.3% - 54.3% 12.2% 0.4%
	3	2	13/5	-0.210 ( -0.103)
			44.4% 10.1% 0.3% - 55.6% 12.7% 0.4%
	4	2	13/7 5/3	-0.299 ( -0.192)
			42.6% 10.0% 0.3% - 57.4% 14.8% 0.6%
	5	2	10/2	-0.364 ( -0.257)
			40.3% 9.6% 0.3% - 59.7% 14.9% 0.5%

Annotation

Alex Zamanian: Though Red may get attacked after his play, there's not much else he can do. He's quite a bit up in the race and if he waits to leave the anchor his position is going to get worse and worse while he leaves several shots. He rolled a decent number for running, and is correct to make a bolt for it with 21/13.

Move number 39: Moshe Tissona to play 44

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 142, Jon Royset 121
Position ID: xjeMAwTMbZEABw Match ID: MAEyA8AAYAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 21/17(2) 13/9 8/4*

Alert: very bad move ( -0.188)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	21/13 11/7 8/4*	+0.432
			58.3% 21.1% 0.5% - 41.7% 9.4% 0.3%
	2	2	21/9 8/4*	+0.271 ( -0.162)
			56.6% 21.2% 0.4% - 43.4% 15.0% 1.0%
	3	2	21/17(3) 8/4*	+0.268 ( -0.164)
			56.9% 19.2% 0.4% - 43.1% 15.5% 0.7%
•	4	2	21/17(2) 13/9 8/4*	+0.244 ( -0.188)
			56.9% 22.8% 0.7% - 43.1% 18.4% 1.3%
	5	2	21/17(2) 11/7 8/4*	+0.185 ( -0.248)
			54.6% 21.1% 0.6% - 45.4% 17.8% 0.9%

Annotation

Alex Zamanian: White's play of 21/17(2) 13/9 8/4* is just asking for trouble. If he gets hit, his lack of anchor and several blots lying around will come back to bite him. 21/13 11/7 8/4* is solid and correct. It's not quite as good as White's actual play if Red misses, but it's leaps and bounds better when Red hits.

Casper van der Tak: Tissona must hit, that much is clear. After that, he does not need a lot of blots - after all, since Royset has a three-point board and the race is pretty close. 21/13 11/7 8/4* looks clear.

Move number 40: Jon Royset to play 53

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 126, Jon Royset 125
Position ID: rNskMATGN4wDQA Match ID: cIkuA8AAYAAA

• Jon Royset cannot move

Alert: very unlucky roll! ( -0.851)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
			Cannot move

Annotation

Alex Zamanian: It is 100% clear that White has a strong double, since it's certainly not obvious that Red can take.

From Red's point of view, he's very likely going to be stuck behind a 5-prime. Even if he manages to jump over the prime, he'll have an even game at best. Looks like he's correct to give it up.

Move number 41: Moshe Tissona doubles to 2

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 126, Jon Royset 125
Position ID: xjeMA0Cs2yQwBA Match ID: MBkgA8AAYAAA

• Jon Royset rejects

Alert: wrong pass ( -0.015)!

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		+0.591	(Money: +0.591)
	69.7% 27.2% 1.0% - 30.3% 8.3% 0.3%
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.985
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	(+0.015)
3.	No double	+0.769	(-0.215)
Proper cube action:		Double, take

Moshe Tissona wins 1 point

Game statistics for game 16
Player	Moshe Tissona	Jon Royset
Checker play statistics
Total moves	20	20
Unforced moves	20	17
Moves marked very good	0	0
Moves marked good	0	0
Moves marked interesting	0	0
Moves unmarked	14	18
Moves marked doubtful	1	2
Moves marked bad	1	0
Moves marked very bad	4	0
Error rate (total)	-1.285 ( -5.398%)	-0.090 ( -0.379%)
Error rate (pr. move)	-0.064 ( -0.270% )	-0.005 ( -0.022%)
Chequer play rating	Awful!	Expert
Luck statistics
Rolls marked very lucky	0	0
Rolls marked lucky	2	1
Rolls unmarked	18	17
Rolls marked unlucky	0	1
Rolls marked very unlucky	0	1
Luck rate (total)	+1.375 ( +5.775%)	-0.698 ( -2.932%)
Luck rate (pr. move)	+0.069 ( +0.289%)	-0.035 ( -0.147%)
Luck rating	Go to Las Vegas immediately	Better luck next time
Cube statistics
Total cube decisions	20	21
Close or actual cube decisions	2	13
Doubles	1	0
Takes	0	0
Passes	0	1
Missed doubles around DP	0	0
Missed doubles around TG	0	0
Wrong doubles around DP	0	0
Wrong doubles around TG	0	0
Wrong takes	0	0
Wrong passes	0	1 (-0.015 ( -0.065%))
Error rate (total)	0	-0.015 ( -0.065%)
Error rate (per cube decision)	0	-0.001 ( -0.005%)
Cube decision rating	Supernatural	Supernatural
Overall rating
Error rate (total)	-1.285 ( -5.398%)	-0.106 ( -0.444%)
Error rate (per decision)	-0.058 ( -0.245% )	-0.004 ( -0.015%)
Equivalent Snowie error rate	-32.1	-2.6
Overall rating	Awful!	World class
Actual result	54.20%	45.80%
Luck adjusted result	45.49%	54.51%
Relative FIBS rating	-15.70	15.70

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Output generated Sat Aug 09 03:09:49 2003 by GNU Backgammon 0.14-devel 1.1238 030804 (HTML Export version 1.126)