Game number 8

Moshe Tissona (5 pts) vs. Jon Royset (4 pts) (Match to 25)

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Match Information

Moshe Tissona's rating: 0 (Exp 0)
Jon Royset's rating: 0 (Exp 0)
Date: July 13, 2003
Event: World Championship 2003
Round: Final
Place: Monte Carlo
Annotator: Casper van der Tak, Chuck Bower, Alex Zamanian, Tom Suzanski, Christian Toth and GNU 0.14

Move number 1: Moshe Tissona to play 43

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 167, Jon Royset 167
Position ID: 4HPwATDgc/ABMA Match ID: MAAuA1AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 24/21 13/9

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	13/10 13/9	+0.037
			50.7% 15.7% 0.7% - 49.3% 13.5% 0.6%
	2	2	24/20 13/10	+0.031 ( -0.005)
			51.1% 14.1% 0.7% - 48.9% 13.2% 0.5%
•	3	2	24/21 13/9	+0.029 ( -0.007)
			51.0% 14.4% 0.7% - 49.0% 13.5% 0.5%
	4	2	24/21 24/20	+0.000 ( -0.036)
			50.6% 12.6% 0.7% - 49.4% 13.2% 0.4%
	5	2	13/6	-0.055 ( -0.092)
			48.8% 13.9% 0.6% - 51.2% 14.5% 0.5%

Annotation

Chuck Bower: The opening roll with the most reasonable options, this being one of the obvious triumverate, with the double split (24/20 24/21) being best at some late, gammon-avoidant scores. Tissona's choice here is my favorite because some opponents are less knowledgable about how to defend it, at least compared to the sister play of 24/20 13/10.

Move number 2: Jon Royset to play 43

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 160, Jon Royset 167
Position ID: 4HPhASLgc/ABMA Match ID: cAkuA1AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves 8/4*/1*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	24/21 8/4*	-0.108
			47.5% 12.9% 0.6% - 52.5% 16.0% 0.7%
	2	2	13/10 8/4*	-0.109 ( -0.002)
			47.3% 14.2% 0.7% - 52.7% 16.8% 1.1%
•	3	2	8/4/1	-0.111 ( -0.003)
			46.8% 13.6% 0.5% - 53.1% 15.9% 0.7%
	4	2	24/21 13/9	-0.203 ( -0.096)
			45.0% 11.1% 0.4% - 55.0% 15.9% 0.6%
	5	2	24/21 24/20	-0.222 ( -0.114)
			45.1% 10.4% 0.4% - 54.9% 16.8% 0.5%

Annotation

Chuck Bower: This may be a good example of my point above about knowing how to defend the 24/21, 13/9 opening. Although GNU-bg evaluates Royset's choice as only very slightly worse than hit+split (24/21) and hit+builder (13/10), rollouts I've performed with Jellyfish have his response no better than a distant third. Not a blunder, but openings and replies have been rolled out by many so here all have a chance to memorize something useful.

Move number 3: Moshe Tissona to play 61

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 165, Jon Royset 160
Position ID: wWfwATDgc+EBYA Match ID: MAEnA1AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves bar/24*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	bar/24*	+0.102
			52.4% 16.9% 1.2% - 47.6% 13.5% 0.6%

Move number 4: Jon Royset to play 63

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 164, Jon Royset 184
Position ID: 4HPhAVDgM/gAWA Match ID: cAkvA1AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves bar/16*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/16*	+0.084
			52.0% 15.0% 0.9% - 48.0% 14.1% 0.7%
	2	2	bar/22 24/18	-0.150 ( -0.234)
			46.6% 11.4% 0.5% - 53.4% 16.3% 0.6%
	3	2	bar/22 13/7	-0.191 ( -0.274)
			45.5% 12.6% 0.6% - 54.5% 17.7% 1.2%
	4	0	bar/22 8/2	-0.479 ( -0.563)
			39.4% 9.6% 0.4% - 60.6% 22.8% 2.4%

Move number 5: Moshe Tissona to play 53

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 180, Jon Royset 175
Position ID: 4DP4CDDgc/AAaA Match ID: MIEuA1AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves bar/22 bar/20

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	bar/22 bar/20	+0.050
			50.9% 15.2% 1.0% - 49.1% 12.6% 0.5%

Move number 6: Jon Royset to play 52

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 172, Jon Royset 175
Position ID: 4HPwgCTgM/gIMA Match ID: cIkqA1AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves 16/11 13/11

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	16/11 13/11	+0.014
			50.8% 12.2% 0.5% - 49.2% 14.0% 0.5%
	2	2	24/22 13/8	-0.092 ( -0.106)
			48.2% 11.6% 0.5% - 51.8% 15.5% 0.6%
	3	2	16/14 13/8	-0.123 ( -0.137)
			47.1% 11.9% 0.5% - 52.9% 15.7% 0.8%
	4	2	13/11 13/8	-0.156 ( -0.170)
			46.6% 12.1% 0.6% - 53.4% 17.2% 1.0%
	5	2	24/22 16/11	-0.161 ( -0.174)
			46.4% 10.7% 0.4% - 53.6% 15.8% 0.6%

Move number 7: Moshe Tissona to play 42

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 172, Jon Royset 168
Position ID: 4DPmATDgc/CAJA Match ID: MAEqA1AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 24/20 13/11

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	22/20 13/9	+0.125
			52.1% 15.3% 0.5% - 47.9% 9.5% 0.2%
•	2	2	24/20 13/11	+0.117 ( -0.007)
			52.2% 14.1% 0.5% - 47.8% 9.1% 0.2%
	3	2	8/4 6/4	+0.086 ( -0.038)
			51.8% 16.3% 0.9% - 48.2% 12.6% 0.5%
	4	2	24/20 22/20	+0.067 ( -0.058)
			51.0% 11.9% 0.4% - 49.0% 8.2% 0.2%
	5	2	22/18 20/18	+0.054 ( -0.071)
			51.6% 13.4% 0.4% - 48.4% 11.9% 0.3%

Annotation

Chuck Bower: The better offensive play is 13/11 (safer) and the better defensive play is 22/20, keeping the deepest possible fielder. But Tissona isn't allowed to play two deuces. GNU-bg quickie rollouts say it's a tossup.

Christian Toth: The more natural play is 13/9 22/20 with a better builder and greater control of the opponent's inside points. When in doubt between the 11 and the 9 point, I usually go for the better builder, unless getting hit is dangerous, which is clearly not the case here. Obviously the difference between the equities is very small, but in my opinion this is a conceptual misunderstanding that can cause future difficulties in similar situations.

Move number 8: Jon Royset to play 61

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 166, Jon Royset 168
Position ID: 4HPkgAngM+YBMA Match ID: cAknA1AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves 24/23 24/18

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	24/23 24/18	-0.112
			48.4% 9.2% 0.2% - 51.6% 15.1% 0.4%
	2	2	24/23 13/7	-0.176 ( -0.065)
			46.1% 10.5% 0.3% - 53.9% 16.0% 0.6%
	3	2	13/6	-0.200 ( -0.088)
			45.6% 9.6% 0.2% - 54.4% 15.9% 0.5%
	4	2	13/7 8/7	-0.245 ( -0.133)
			44.1% 9.6% 0.3% - 55.9% 16.1% 0.7%
	5	2	24/18 11/10	-0.329 ( -0.217)
			43.0% 9.5% 0.3% - 57.0% 19.2% 1.1%

Move number 9: Moshe Tissona to play 32

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 166, Jon Royset 161
Position ID: 4DPmQRDgc+SACQ Match ID: MIEpA1AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 22/20 11/8

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	13/11 8/5	+0.043
			50.0% 13.8% 0.5% - 50.0% 9.6% 0.2%
•	2	2	22/20 11/8	+0.034 ( -0.009)
			49.7% 10.7% 0.2% - 50.3% 6.6% 0.1%
	3	2	13/11 6/3	+0.029 ( -0.014)
			49.7% 13.3% 0.4% - 50.3% 9.7% 0.2%
	4	2	11/6	+0.015 ( -0.027)
			49.1% 12.2% 0.3% - 51.0% 8.0% 0.2%
	5	2	11/8 6/4	-0.004 ( -0.047)
			48.7% 12.4% 0.4% - 51.3% 9.0% 0.2%

Annotation

Chuck Bower: As with Tissona's previous decision, dual purposes are at odds. The better structure argues for improving on that front but the close race means safing up is a strong option. GNU-bg's evaluation says: "take your pick."

Christian Toth: My style would be to play 13/11 8/5, which in my opinion is by far more natural, though of course what is natural to me doesn't necessarily mean it is the correct move. The reason is that an anchor and the slightly odd distribution of the Red checkers argues to try to make another point in White's board. With the move played, White gets closer to a race strategy and this lacks flexibility in my opinion. He should try to keep his options open if he can.

Move number 10: Jon Royset to play 65

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 161, Jon Royset 161
Position ID: 4PPggAPgM+ZBEA Match ID: cAk3A1AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves 23/18 13/7

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	23/18 13/7	+0.139
			54.9% 7.4% 0.1% - 45.1% 8.3% 0.1%
	2	2	18/7	-0.022 ( -0.161)
			50.8% 8.4% 0.2% - 49.2% 12.7% 0.2%
	3	2	23/18 8/2	-0.043 ( -0.181)
			49.8% 7.1% 0.1% - 50.2% 10.7% 0.2%
	4	2	13/2	-0.105 ( -0.243)
			48.5% 9.1% 0.2% - 51.5% 14.5% 0.3%
	5	2	13/8 13/7	-0.142 ( -0.280)
			47.4% 9.2% 0.2% - 52.6% 15.1% 0.4%

Move number 11: Moshe Tissona to play 22

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 161, Jon Royset 150
Position ID: 4GvMwQDg8+CAAw Match ID: MAEpA1AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 20/18*/16 6/4(2)

Alert: lucky roll! ( +0.310)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	20/18*/16 6/4(2)	+0.299
			57.3% 14.3% 0.4% - 42.7% 6.7% 0.1%
	2	2	20/18* 8/4 6/4	+0.264 ( -0.034)
			55.9% 14.9% 0.4% - 44.1% 6.8% 0.1%
	3	2	20/18*(2) 6/4(2)	+0.237 ( -0.062)
			56.2% 13.3% 0.3% - 43.8% 7.9% 0.2%
	4	2	20/18* 13/11 6/4(2)	+0.237 ( -0.062)
			55.1% 15.1% 0.5% - 44.9% 7.3% 0.2%
	5	2	20/18* 6/4(3)	+0.189 ( -0.110)
			54.1% 13.5% 0.4% - 45.9% 7.2% 0.1%

Annotation

Chuck Bower: Three of the deuces are automatic but there are several choices for the last. "Don't give your opponent a good six when he's on the bar" is a valid principle early in the game and seems to win out here, based upon a quick rollout.

Move number 12: Jon Royset to play 43

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 153, Jon Royset 168
Position ID: mPPgCAPgM+ZgQA Match ID: cAkuA1AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves bar/22 13/9*

Ply

Move

Equity

bar/18

-0.151

45.6%	5.7%	0.2%	-	54.4%	8.9%	0.2%	-0.120	-0.151
0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	-	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.004	0.009

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 165342

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

•

bar/22 13/9*

-0.160 ( -0.009)

46.5%	8.4%	0.3%	-	53.5%	15.3%	0.6%	-0.140	-0.160
0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	-	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	0.005	0.013

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 165342

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

bar/22 6/2

-0.266 ( -0.115)

43.9% 6.7% 0.1% - 56.1% 14.2% 0.3%

bar/22 8/4

-0.379 ( -0.227)

41.3% 7.8% 0.2% - 58.7% 17.9% 0.6%

bar/22 11/7

-0.500 ( -0.349)

38.2% 6.8% 0.1% - 61.8% 19.9% 0.8%

Annotation

Chuck Bower: The GNU-bg rollout result surprised me, but a Snowie3.2 rollout agreed. Royset is well behind in the race and can send his opponent to the rail without severe retaliation, and still it's incorrect to do so. Apparently it's the inflexibility of his subsequent position that vetoes the hit. Royset won't have obvious covers for this fresh blot and he leaves a blot in Tissona's homeboard to boot. Better to clean up everywhere and hit later after the homeboard has some teeth.

Move number 13: Moshe Tissona to play 53

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 162, Jon Royset 161
Position ID: 4LPMYAiY8+CAQQ Match ID: MIEuA1AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves bar/22 8/3*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/22 8/3*	+0.232
			54.5% 17.2% 0.7% - 45.5% 9.0% 0.2%
	2	2	bar/22 13/8	+0.158 ( -0.074)
			53.1% 13.9% 0.4% - 46.9% 7.7% 0.2%
	3	2	bar/20 8/5	+0.134 ( -0.098)
			52.5% 12.9% 0.3% - 47.5% 7.3% 0.2%
	4	2	bar/20 6/3*	+0.108 ( -0.124)
			51.7% 14.1% 0.5% - 48.3% 8.9% 0.2%
	5	2	bar/20 13/10	+0.095 ( -0.137)
			51.3% 13.1% 0.4% - 48.7% 7.9% 0.2%

Move number 14: Jon Royset to play 63

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 154, Jon Royset 164
Position ID: NOfggAngs8xgQA Match ID: cAkvA1AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves bar/22* 9/3*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/22* 9/3*	+0.067
			52.2% 12.5% 0.4% - 47.8% 13.1% 0.3%
	2	2	bar/22*/16	+0.023 ( -0.044)
			51.6% 11.0% 0.3% - 48.4% 13.7% 0.3%
	3	0	bar/22* 13/7	-0.320 ( -0.387)
			42.8% 10.5% 0.3% - 57.2% 19.9% 1.1%
	4	0	bar/22* 8/2	-0.473 ( -0.540)
			39.3% 9.5% 0.3% - 60.7% 22.8% 1.3%

Move number 15: Moshe Tissona to play 21

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 179, Jon Royset 155
Position ID: xGfMYAiYc3DAYA Match ID: MAElA1AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves bar/24 bar/23

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	bar/24 bar/23	+0.005
			49.9% 14.4% 0.5% - 50.1% 12.8% 0.4%

Move number 16: Jon Royset to play 32

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 176, Jon Royset 155
Position ID: mHNwwCjEZ8xgCA Match ID: cIkpA1AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves 22/20 6/3

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	22/20 6/3	+0.233
			56.3% 14.7% 0.5% - 43.7% 11.7% 0.3%
	2	2	13/11 6/3	+0.128 ( -0.105)
			53.3% 14.4% 0.5% - 46.7% 12.8% 0.4%
	3	2	6/4 6/3	+0.099 ( -0.134)
			53.0% 13.9% 0.5% - 47.0% 14.0% 0.4%
	4	2	6/1*	-0.095 ( -0.327)
			48.4% 12.3% 0.4% - 51.6% 17.0% 0.5%
	5	2	11/9 6/3	-0.113 ( -0.346)
			47.3% 13.5% 0.6% - 52.7% 16.9% 0.7%

Move number 17: Moshe Tissona to play 41

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 176, Jon Royset 150
Position ID: jGfMYAKYc3DAKA Match ID: MAEmA1AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 24/20 6/5*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	13/9 6/5*	-0.181
			46.8% 13.1% 0.5% - 53.2% 18.4% 1.2%
•	2	2	24/20 6/5*	-0.192 ( -0.011)
			45.4% 11.5% 0.3% - 54.6% 15.1% 0.5%
	3	2	8/4 6/5*	-0.209 ( -0.028)
			45.3% 12.5% 0.4% - 54.7% 16.8% 0.8%
	4	2	13/8	-0.210 ( -0.030)
			44.3% 11.9% 0.3% - 55.7% 14.2% 0.5%
	5	2	8/3	-0.219 ( -0.038)
			44.1% 12.2% 0.3% - 55.9% 14.8% 0.6%

Move number 18: Jon Royset to play 61

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 171, Jon Royset 155
Position ID: WHNwwBGMZ8xgQA Match ID: cAknA1AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves bar/18

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		+0.131	(Money: +0.131)
	54.6% 15.1% 0.5% - 45.4% 11.5% 0.3%
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.192
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	(+0.808)
3.	Double, take	-0.026	(-0.218)
Proper cube action:		No double, take (21.2%)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/18	+0.242
			56.9% 12.7% 0.4% - 43.1% 10.4% 0.2%
	2	2	bar/24 8/2*	-0.003 ( -0.245)
			49.7% 14.7% 0.5% - 50.3% 14.9% 0.6%
	3	0	bar/24 13/7	-0.127 ( -0.369)
			46.8% 13.3% 0.4% - 53.2% 16.7% 0.8%

Move number 19: Moshe Tissona to play 54

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 171, Jon Royset 148
Position ID: jGfM4ABYc3DAEQ Match ID: MIEyA1AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 20/11

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	20/11	-0.161
			45.4% 11.1% 0.2% - 54.6% 12.3% 0.4%
	2	2	20/16 13/8	-0.198 ( -0.037)
			44.8% 11.4% 0.3% - 55.2% 14.0% 0.5%
	3	2	13/4	-0.208 ( -0.047)
			43.5% 11.6% 0.3% - 56.5% 12.1% 0.4%
	4	2	13/9 8/3	-0.244 ( -0.083)
			43.6% 12.2% 0.3% - 56.4% 15.1% 0.7%
	5	2	20/16 8/3	-0.257 ( -0.096)
			43.7% 11.5% 0.3% - 56.3% 15.9% 0.7%

Annotation

Chuck Bower: Tissona must keep checkers in position, as covering the 5-point is a major goal. Putting checkers deep in the homeboard, on the other hand, is very inefficient. Either 8/4 or 8/3 would be a tactical error.

Christian Toth: Even if the difference between the moves isn't that big, this is the kind of decision that allows no other choice. Any move other than 20/11 would be completely against any clear strategy, as you can't identify a clear plan in the other choices. As a chess player I know that playing without a plan means... death.

Move number 20: Jon Royset to play 42

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 162, Jon Royset 148
Position ID: WHPkgBGMZ8zgAA Match ID: cAkqA1AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves 18/14* 13/11

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		+0.105	(Money: +0.105)
	54.6% 12.3% 0.4% - 45.4% 11.1% 0.2%
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.161
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	(+0.839)
3.	Double, take	-0.078	(-0.239)
Proper cube action:		No double, take (22.2%)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	18/14* 13/11	+0.338
			58.4% 16.3% 0.6% - 41.6% 9.8% 0.2%
	2	2	18/14* 6/4	+0.280 ( -0.058)
			57.4% 15.6% 0.6% - 42.6% 11.4% 0.3%
	3	2	18/14* 11/9	+0.217 ( -0.121)
			54.7% 17.8% 1.0% - 45.3% 12.7% 0.5%
	4	2	18/16 18/14*	+0.204 ( -0.134)
			55.2% 16.2% 0.7% - 44.8% 12.8% 0.4%
	5	2	18/14* 8/6	+0.138 ( -0.200)
			52.9% 15.9% 0.6% - 47.1% 12.6% 0.4%

Annotation

Chuck Bower: With ownership of the 18-point, the midpoint becomes expendable. Exceptions occur with a big race lead when pulling up anchor is a near-term consideration (not the case here). In the midst of a slugfest, Royset needs to make the best use of all 15 checkers.

Move number 21: Moshe Tissona to play 52

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 176, Jon Royset 142
Position ID: jGecwgBYc3DASA Match ID: MIEqA1AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves bar/20 13/11*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/20 13/11*	-0.109
			48.3% 13.1% 0.4% - 51.7% 16.5% 0.8%
	2	2	bar/20 8/6	-0.262 ( -0.153)
			42.6% 10.3% 0.2% - 57.4% 13.1% 0.4%
	3	2	bar/20 23/21	-0.276 ( -0.167)
			42.1% 8.9% 0.2% - 57.9% 11.7% 0.4%
	4	2	bar/23 8/3	-0.304 ( -0.195)
			41.9% 10.8% 0.2% - 58.1% 15.1% 0.6%
	5	2	bar/18	-0.305 ( -0.196)
			42.6% 9.7% 0.2% - 57.4% 15.6% 0.6%

Move number 22: Jon Royset to play 42

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 169, Jon Royset 153
Position ID: WHNkwBGMZ5xgQA Match ID: cAkqA1AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves bar/23 18/14*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/23 18/14*	+0.267
			54.7% 21.3% 1.3% - 45.3% 12.5% 0.5%
	2	2	bar/23 6/2*	+0.061 ( -0.206)
			51.3% 15.1% 0.6% - 48.7% 14.3% 0.6%
	3	2	bar/23 13/9	+0.008 ( -0.259)
			50.3% 13.1% 0.4% - 49.7% 14.0% 0.4%
	4	0	bar/23 11/7	-0.184 ( -0.451)
			45.7% 13.0% 0.5% - 54.3% 18.3% 1.0%
	5	0	bar/23 8/4	-0.368 ( -0.635)
			41.9% 11.4% 0.4% - 58.1% 22.2% 1.8%

Annotation

Christian Toth: Apart from the apparent risk of leaving so many blots, Red must hit the 14 point. It takes away a builder from White's 5-point, prepares possible points on Red's outfield, and hitting on the 2-point would not interfere with White's plans to strengthen his board.

Move number 23: Moshe Tissona to play 65

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 183, Jon Royset 147
Position ID: jGecQhBYczDgSA Match ID: MAE3A1AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves bar/20 8/2*

Alert: bad move ( -0.116)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	bar/20 13/7*	-0.259
			46.9% 13.2% 0.6% - 53.1% 23.8% 1.6%
•	??	2	bar/20 8/2*	-0.375 ( -0.116)
			43.1% 12.4% 0.5% - 56.9% 23.2% 1.3%

Annotation

Chuck Bower: Royset's seemingly randomly placed blocks have paid dividends. Tissona's choice of 8/2* is one last attempt to shore up a dam ready to burst but the five extra shots, deep placement of a checker, and difficulty in cleaning up the homeboard blots adds up to a significant error according to GNU-bg rollouts.

Move number 24: Jon Royset to play 32

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 172, Jon Royset 149
Position ID: smYw4BGMZ5xCQA Match ID: cIkpA1AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves bar/23*/20*

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		+0.254	(Money: +0.254)
	56.9% 23.2% 1.3% - 43.1% 12.4% 0.5%
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.375
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	(+0.625)
3.	Double, take	+0.241	(-0.134)
Proper cube action:		No double, take (17.7%)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/23/20	+0.871
			64.9% 34.7% 2.6% - 35.1% 6.2% 0.2%
	2	2	bar/20*	+0.859 ( -0.012)
			65.9% 31.0% 2.4% - 34.1% 7.8% 0.3%
	3	2	bar/23* 18/15	+0.651 ( -0.220)
			60.7% 30.2% 2.4% - 39.3% 9.6% 0.4%
	4	2	bar/23* 14/11	+0.630 ( -0.242)
			60.3% 29.4% 2.2% - 39.7% 9.0% 0.3%
	5	2	bar/23* 11/8	+0.611 ( -0.260)
			59.8% 30.0% 2.5% - 40.2% 9.9% 0.4%

Annotation

Chuck Bower: I would expect 99.99% of players would hit twice here, and that's GNU's top choice. Surprisingly, though, leaving opp's blot on his 2-point alone is nearly as good, winning almost 2% more games! Snowie 3.2 evaluations agree that the single hit play wins more but still considers it nearly a whopper.

Bots: Snowie 4's evaluation is pretty much identical to GNU's here.

Move number 25: Moshe Tissona to play 11

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 215, Jon Royset 144
Position ID: jGecQgKYGQx4ZA Match ID: MIEkA1AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves bar/24(2) 13/12*/11*

Alert: lucky roll! ( +0.442)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/24(2) 13/12/11	-0.036
			51.6% 15.3% 1.1% - 48.4% 20.3% 1.8%
	2	2	bar/24(2) 13/12* 8/7*	-0.165 ( -0.129)
			49.1% 13.8% 1.0% - 50.8% 22.6% 2.5%
	3	2	bar/24(2) 13/12*(2)	-0.272 ( -0.236)
			46.4% 9.9% 0.4% - 53.6% 21.8% 1.5%
	4	2	bar/24(2) 8/7*(2)	-0.300 ( -0.264)
			45.8% 9.8% 0.4% - 54.2% 22.4% 1.5%
	5	2	bar/24(2) 6/5*(2)	-0.341 ( -0.305)
			45.2% 10.6% 0.5% - 54.8% 24.6% 2.0%

Annotation

Chuck Bower: I wonder how close Royset's hand was to the cube until he saw those beady reptilian optics blinding him into discretion.

Christian Toth: Lovely Joker! Hitting on the 7-point would be a serious mistake as it destroys a future prime for no good reason.

Move number 26: Jon Royset to play 64

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 211, Jon Royset 167
Position ID: mBkJeDSMZxyQYA Match ID: cAkzA1AAIAAA

• Jon Royset cannot move

Alert: unlucky roll! ( -0.463)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
			Cannot move

Move number 27: Moshe Tissona to play 63

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 211, Jon Royset 167
Position ID: jGcckGCYGQl4NA Match ID: MAEvA1AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 11/5* 8/5

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	11/5* 8/5	+0.814
			67.7% 29.6% 2.9% - 32.3% 10.5% 0.7%
	2	2	13/7* 8/5*	+0.531 ( -0.283)
			62.4% 25.6% 2.4% - 37.6% 14.9% 1.5%
	3	0	24/21 13/7*	+0.288 ( -0.526)
			57.8% 19.3% 1.2% - 42.2% 13.5% 0.9%
	4	0	24/21 11/5*	+0.180 ( -0.634)
			55.2% 19.5% 1.2% - 44.8% 15.9% 1.3%
	5	0	23/20 13/7*	+0.178 ( -0.636)
			56.1% 18.8% 1.4% - 43.9% 17.8% 1.4%

Move number 28: Jon Royset to play 52

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 202, Jon Royset 172
Position ID: 2CYIeDSMZxwQcA Match ID: cIkqA1AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves bar/23

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	bar/23	-0.569
			36.3% 13.9% 1.2% - 63.7% 27.5% 3.0%

Move number 29: Moshe Tissona doubles to 2

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 202, Jon Royset 170
Position ID: jGccEGTYJgh4NA Match ID: MBkgA1AAIAAA

• Jon Royset rejects

Alert: wrong pass ( -0.344)! [very bad]

Alert: wrong double ( -0.067)!

Cube decision

Rollout cubeless equity

+0.470

(Money: +0.471)

Cubeful equities:

No double

+0.723

Double, pass

+1.000

+0.277

Double, take

+0.656

-0.067

Proper cube action:

No double, take (19.5%)

Rollout details

	Win	W g	W bg		Lose	L g	L bg	Cubeless	Cubeful
Centered 1-cube	65.0%	25.4%	2.1%	-	35.0%	9.8%	0.6%	+0.470	+0.723
Standard error	0.3%	0.3%	0.1%	-	0.3%	0.2%	0.0%	0.008	0.020
Player Jon Royset owns 2-cube	65.1%	25.0%	2.1%	-	34.9%	9.5%	0.6%	+0.946	+0.656
Standard error	0.3%	0.3%	0.2%	-	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.018	0.024

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175191424 and quasi-random dice

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed

Annotation

Chuck Bower: Agreed that Tissona has a better offense and a better defense, but 32 pips is a load and Royset has all checkers solidly in play. Even with a big equity advantage as rollouts indicate, the volatility here is low. Is hitting on the barpoint a market loser? Is making the barpoint a market loser? Maybe Tissona invoked the Woolsey Doubling Rule ("if not absolutely sure your opponent has a take, double"). Whatever his reasoning, it certainly worked.

Christian Toth: According to my limited understanding, the bots tend to completely misevaluate and misplay these kinds of situations: 2 checkers on the bar, the possibility of a 3rd, and a long game still ahead. I think mankind is still far more reliable to opine about these sorts of positions. For instance, in practical play, to not double this would be to completely misunderstand one of the key aspects of the game: to know how and when to gamble. There is a very good chance that the opponent will badly misevaluate the position, and pass it, losing a terrible amount of equity. So, the real question is really whether to double or not to double, as opposed to whether it is a take or a pass. What is funny is that the bot will say White is a mere Expert player instead of a World Class player due to its own misevaluation. Still, I'm sure that all World Class players would double this position, even if it is a mistake to do so in from a purely mathematical perspective of the game. After all, backgammon is also a game of character. I try to never forget this.

Bots: Snowie agreed with the Double/Pass decision declaring that to not double would be a 0.111 blunder. GNU thought it a No Double/Take.

Moshe Tissona wins 1 point

Game statistics for game 8
Player	Moshe Tissona	Jon Royset
Checker play statistics
Total moves	14	14
Unforced moves	11	12
Moves marked very good	0	0
Moves marked good	0	0
Moves marked interesting	0	0
Moves unmarked	13	14
Moves marked doubtful	0	0
Moves marked bad	1	0
Moves marked very bad	0	0
Error rate (total)	-0.151 ( -0.536%)	-0.012 ( -0.044%)
Error rate (pr. move)	-0.014 ( -0.049% )	-0.001 ( -0.004%)
Chequer play rating	Intermediate	Supernatural
Luck statistics
Rolls marked very lucky	0	0
Rolls marked lucky	2	0
Rolls unmarked	12	13
Rolls marked unlucky	0	1
Rolls marked very unlucky	0	0
Luck rate (total)	+0.637 ( +2.258%)	+0.150 ( +0.532%)
Luck rate (pr. move)	+0.046 ( +0.161%)	+0.011 ( +0.038%)
Luck rating	Good dice, man!	None
Cube statistics
Total cube decisions	14	15
Close or actual cube decisions	1	4
Doubles	1	0
Takes	0	0
Passes	0	1
Missed doubles around DP	0	0
Missed doubles around TG	0	0
Wrong doubles around DP	1 (-0.067 ( -0.238%))	0
Wrong doubles around TG	0	0
Wrong takes	0	0
Wrong passes	0	1 (-0.344 ( -1.221%))
Error rate (total)	-0.067 ( -0.238%)	-0.344 ( -1.221%)
Error rate (per cube decision)	-0.067 ( -0.238% )	-0.086 ( -0.305%)
Cube decision rating	Awful!	Awful!
Overall rating
Error rate (total)	-0.218 ( -0.774%)	-0.357 ( -1.265%)
Error rate (per decision)	-0.018 ( -0.065% )	-0.022 ( -0.079%)
Equivalent Snowie error rate	-7.8	-12.7
Overall rating	Casual player	Casual player
Actual result	53.57%	46.43%
Luck adjusted result	51.85%	48.15%
Relative FIBS rating	6.42	-6.42

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Output generated Fri Aug 08 23:25:04 2003 by GNU Backgammon 0.14-devel 1.1238 030804 (HTML Export version 1.126)