Game number 9

Moshe Tissona (6 pts) vs. Jon Royset (4 pts) (Match to 25)

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Match Information

Moshe Tissona's rating: 0 (Exp 0)
Jon Royset's rating: 0 (Exp 0)
Date: July 13, 2003
Event: World Championship 2003
Round: Final
Place: Monte Carlo
Annotator: Casper van der Tak, Chuck Bower, Alex Zamanian, Tom Suzanski, Christian Toth and GNU 0.14

Move number 1: Jon Royset to play 62

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 167, Jon Royset 167
Position ID: 4HPwATDgc/ABMA Match ID: cAgrA2AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves 24/18 13/11

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	24/18 13/11	+0.064
			51.7% 13.3% 0.6% - 48.3% 13.4% 0.4%
	2	2	24/16	+0.021 ( -0.043)
			50.8% 12.1% 0.4% - 49.2% 13.4% 0.4%
	3	2	13/5	+0.020 ( -0.045)
			49.9% 14.5% 0.6% - 50.1% 13.9% 0.6%
	4	2	13/11 13/7	-0.016 ( -0.080)
			49.1% 14.4% 0.7% - 50.9% 14.8% 0.8%
	5	2	24/22 13/7	-0.030 ( -0.094)
			48.7% 13.4% 0.6% - 51.3% 13.8% 0.5%

Move number 2: Moshe Tissona to play 31

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 167, Jon Royset 159
Position ID: 4HPkQSDgc/ABMA Match ID: MIElA2AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 8/5 6/5

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	8/5 6/5	-0.036
			48.9% 13.2% 0.4% - 51.1% 12.3% 0.5%
	2	2	24/21 8/7*	-0.087 ( -0.051)
			48.0% 12.5% 0.5% - 52.0% 13.6% 0.5%
	3	2	13/10 8/7*	-0.109 ( -0.073)
			47.8% 13.5% 0.6% - 52.2% 15.5% 0.9%
	4	2	8/7*/4	-0.195 ( -0.159)
			45.8% 12.4% 0.5% - 54.2% 16.2% 0.9%
	5	2	24/21 6/5	-0.212 ( -0.175)
			45.2% 10.8% 0.3% - 54.8% 14.7% 0.6%

Move number 3: Jon Royset to play 63

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 163, Jon Royset 159
Position ID: sGfwATDgc+RBIA Match ID: cAkvA2AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves 24/18 13/10

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	24/18 13/10	+0.218
			55.7% 13.1% 0.4% - 44.3% 9.8% 0.2%
	2	2	24/18 11/8	+0.181 ( -0.038)
			54.9% 11.9% 0.4% - 45.1% 9.9% 0.2%
	3	2	11/5 8/5	+0.103 ( -0.115)
			52.5% 15.7% 1.0% - 47.5% 14.8% 0.5%
	4	2	24/18 6/3	+0.050 ( -0.168)
			51.5% 11.8% 0.3% - 48.5% 12.3% 0.3%
	5	2	24/18 8/5	+0.043 ( -0.175)
			51.5% 12.3% 0.4% - 48.5% 13.0% 0.4%

Annotation

Chuck Bower: The 5-point may be the 5-point, but when opponent has a better board and your back checkers are split and vulnerable, tightening things up by making the advanced anchor takes priority. GNU-bg quick rollouts rate making the 5-point a cubeful Whopper.

Casper van der Tak: In addition to Chuck's remarks, note that 11/5 8/5 makes it difficult for Royset to improve on his side of the board and that the 6-point remains stacked. The builders after 24/18 13/10 make it likely that Royset will be able to improve on his side of the board next turn, whereas after 11/5 8/5 it remains to be seen whether he will get an anchor.

In general, if you split to the bar on the opening roll you will want to make the bar next turn above making points on your won side of the board unless POH (Pointed On the Head).

Move number 4: Moshe Tissona to play 52

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 163, Jon Royset 150
Position ID: 4HPKwQCwZ/ABMA Match ID: MIEqA2AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 24/22 13/8

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	24/22 13/8	-0.238
			43.9% 9.3% 0.2% - 56.1% 12.8% 0.3%
	2	2	13/8 6/4	-0.297 ( -0.060)
			42.3% 9.4% 0.2% - 57.7% 13.6% 0.5%
	3	2	13/11 13/8	-0.331 ( -0.093)
			41.4% 9.6% 0.2% - 58.6% 14.2% 0.5%
	4	2	13/6	-0.354 ( -0.117)
			40.9% 9.1% 0.2% - 59.1% 14.5% 0.5%
	5	2	24/22 8/3	-0.386 ( -0.148)
			40.4% 9.5% 0.2% - 59.6% 16.3% 0.7%

Move number 5: Jon Royset to play 41

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 156, Jon Royset 150
Position ID: sOfgASTgc8rBAA Match ID: cAkmA2AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves 11/7 8/7

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	13/9 10/9	+0.231
			56.6% 11.7% 0.3% - 43.4% 9.4% 0.2%
•	2	2	11/7 8/7	+0.189 ( -0.042)
			55.5% 10.9% 0.2% - 44.5% 9.4% 0.2%
	3	2	11/10 6/2	+0.054 ( -0.177)
			51.8% 10.8% 0.2% - 48.2% 11.6% 0.2%
	4	2	13/9 11/10	+0.015 ( -0.215)
			50.8% 10.5% 0.2% - 49.2% 12.1% 0.3%
	5	2	11/6	-0.002 ( -0.233)
			50.2% 9.3% 0.2% - 49.8% 10.6% 0.2%

Annotation

Chuck Bower: You can argue all night about which point is better here, but not about which play leaves fewer shots nor which play leaves a better checker distribution.

Move number 6: Moshe Tissona to play 32

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 156, Jon Royset 145
Position ID: 4NvEwQCw5+ABJA Match ID: MIEpA2AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 24/22 6/3

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	24/22 13/10	-0.218
			42.8% 8.6% 0.1% - 57.2% 8.2% 0.2%
•	2	2	24/22 6/3	-0.229 ( -0.012)
			42.4% 8.5% 0.1% - 57.6% 8.3% 0.2%
	3	2	24/22 8/5	-0.230 ( -0.012)
			42.4% 8.5% 0.1% - 57.6% 8.2% 0.1%
	4	2	13/10 6/4	-0.273 ( -0.055)
			43.2% 10.4% 0.2% - 56.8% 14.8% 0.6%
	5	2	8/5 6/4	-0.290 ( -0.072)
			42.8% 10.3% 0.2% - 57.2% 15.0% 0.5%

Move number 7: Jon Royset to play 32

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 151, Jon Royset 145
Position ID: ZOfgAQzg28TBAA Match ID: cIkpA2AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves 13/10 6/4

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	13/8	+0.236
			57.3% 9.0% 0.2% - 42.7% 7.8% 0.1%
	2	2	13/11 10/7	+0.234 ( -0.001)
			57.3% 8.8% 0.2% - 42.7% 7.8% 0.1%
•	3	2	13/10 6/4	+0.210 ( -0.026)
			56.6% 10.8% 0.3% - 43.4% 10.3% 0.3%
	4	2	7/4 6/4	+0.178 ( -0.058)
			55.1% 12.2% 0.3% - 44.9% 10.5% 0.3%
	5	2	13/11 13/10	+0.167 ( -0.069)
			55.3% 9.8% 0.2% - 44.7% 9.7% 0.2%

Annotation

Chuck Bower: Making the 10-point and looking around for a deuce is reflexive, but leaving a direct shot in a close holding game is antithematic.

Move number 8: Moshe Tissona to play 21

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 151, Jon Royset 140
Position ID: yNuMwQBk5+ABDA Match ID: MAElA2AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 22/21* 22/20

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	22/21* 22/20	-0.051
			48.4% 12.8% 0.4% - 51.6% 11.6% 0.4%
	2	2	22/21* 8/6	-0.083 ( -0.032)
			47.4% 13.4% 0.4% - 52.6% 12.4% 0.5%
	3	2	22/21* 13/11	-0.090 ( -0.039)
			47.3% 13.9% 0.4% - 52.7% 13.1% 0.6%
	4	2	22/21* 3/1	-0.105 ( -0.054)
			47.0% 12.7% 0.3% - 53.0% 12.6% 0.4%
	5	2	22/21* 5/3	-0.170 ( -0.118)
			45.2% 12.3% 0.3% - 54.8% 13.0% 0.5%

Move number 9: Jon Royset to play 65

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 148, Jon Royset 161
Position ID: ZOfgAQXgbcZgQA Match ID: cAk3A2AAIAAA

• Jon Royset cannot move

Alert: unlucky roll! ( -0.347)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
			Cannot move

Move number 10: Moshe Tissona to play 62

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 148, Jon Royset 161
Position ID: 4G3GYEBk5+ABBQ Match ID: MAErA2AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 20/14 13/11

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		+0.187	(Money: +0.182)
	54.9% 17.3% 0.5% - 45.1% 9.2% 0.2%
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.233
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	(+0.767)
3.	Double, take	+0.009	(-0.224)
Proper cube action:		No double, take (22.6%)

Ply

Move

Equity

13/5

-0.002

49.8%	13.5%	0.4%	-	50.2%	10.9%	0.5%	+0.019	-0.044
0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	-	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.005	0.014

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1174991744

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

20/14 8/6

-0.036 ( -0.034)

49.4%	11.8%	0.4%	-	50.6%	11.2%	0.4%	-0.008	-0.078
0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	-	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.005	0.012

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1174991744

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

•

20/14 13/11

-0.043 ( -0.041)

49.1%	13.0%	0.5%	-	50.9%	13.1%	0.7%	-0.024	-0.085
0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	-	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.005	0.014

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1174991744

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

20/14 3/1

-0.010 ( -0.008)

50.0% 12.8% 0.3% - 50.0% 12.2% 0.4%

20/14 5/3

-0.079 ( -0.077)

48.3% 12.5% 0.3% - 51.7% 12.9% 0.5%

Annotation

Chuck Bower: Tissona wanted to run/escape but when he failed to roll a covering number his gameplan should have been altered. In Robertie parlance, 13/5 is non-commital.

Move number 11: Jon Royset to play 21

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 140, Jon Royset 161
Position ID: ZOfIBQTgbcZgQA Match ID: cAklA2AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves bar/22*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/22*	+0.225
			56.0% 13.2% 0.4% - 44.0% 10.6% 0.3%
	2	2	bar/24 13/11*	+0.072 ( -0.153)
			52.4% 13.6% 0.5% - 47.6% 14.8% 0.6%
	3	2	bar/24 6/4*	-0.093 ( -0.317)
			48.5% 12.9% 0.4% - 51.5% 17.6% 0.8%
	4	0	bar/23 6/5	-0.233 ( -0.457)
			45.3% 10.5% 0.2% - 54.7% 19.1% 0.8%
	5	0	bar/24 10/8	-0.341 ( -0.566)
			41.2% 9.4% 0.2% - 58.8% 17.1% 0.6%

Move number 12: Moshe Tissona to play 41

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 162, Jon Royset 158
Position ID: 4G3GYAiwc+QCQg Match ID: MAEmA2AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves bar/21 14/13

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/21 14/13	-0.091
			46.6% 9.7% 0.2% - 53.4% 8.4% 0.2%
	2	2	bar/21 6/5	-0.180 ( -0.089)
			44.4% 9.7% 0.2% - 55.6% 10.2% 0.3%
	3	2	bar/21 11/10	-0.180 ( -0.089)
			44.3% 9.4% 0.2% - 55.7% 9.6% 0.2%
	4	2	bar/24 14/10	-0.345 ( -0.254)
			41.8% 11.0% 0.3% - 58.2% 17.1% 1.0%
	5	2	bar/20	-0.369 ( -0.278)
			41.8% 10.5% 0.4% - 58.2% 18.9% 1.2%

Move number 13: Jon Royset to play 51

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 157, Jon Royset 158
Position ID: sHPkAQbgbcZgCA Match ID: cIkmA2AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves 22/16

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	10/5 6/5	+0.056
			51.9% 10.2% 0.2% - 48.1% 10.8% 0.3%
•	2	2	22/16	+0.046 ( -0.010)
			52.5% 8.0% 0.2% - 47.5% 11.0% 0.2%
	3	2	13/8 6/5	-0.020 ( -0.076)
			50.5% 11.1% 0.3% - 49.5% 14.6% 0.6%
	4	2	13/7	-0.037 ( -0.093)
			49.7% 10.2% 0.2% - 50.3% 13.3% 0.3%
	5	2	22/21 13/8	-0.045 ( -0.101)
			49.4% 9.7% 0.2% - 50.6% 12.8% 0.3%

Move number 14: Moshe Tissona to play 11

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 157, Jon Royset 152
Position ID: 4G3GyACwc+QBBg Match ID: MIEkA2AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 21/20(2) 11/9*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	21/20(2) 11/9*	+0.189
			54.3% 12.1% 0.3% - 45.7% 6.3% 0.1%
	2	2	11/9*/8 6/5	+0.051 ( -0.138)
			50.4% 11.7% 0.2% - 49.6% 7.8% 0.2%
	3	2	21/20 11/9*/8	+0.046 ( -0.143)
			51.0% 12.3% 0.3% - 49.0% 9.9% 0.3%
	4	2	21/20 11/9* 6/5	-0.006 ( -0.195)
			49.6% 12.8% 0.4% - 50.4% 11.1% 0.4%
	5	2	11/9* 5/4(2)	-0.007 ( -0.196)
			48.6% 12.1% 0.3% - 51.3% 8.7% 0.2%

Move number 15: Jon Royset to play 21

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 153, Jon Royset 161
Position ID: sHPhAQPgbcZgQA Match ID: cAklA2AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves bar/24 6/4

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/24 6/4	-0.110
			47.8% 6.9% 0.1% - 52.2% 11.3% 0.3%
	2	2	bar/24 18/16*	-0.159 ( -0.049)
			47.1% 9.2% 0.2% - 52.9% 15.9% 0.6%
	3	2	bar/22	-0.189 ( -0.078)
			45.9% 6.5% 0.1% - 54.1% 12.6% 0.3%
	4	2	bar/24 10/8	-0.268 ( -0.158)
			43.2% 7.4% 0.1% - 56.8% 13.3% 0.4%
	5	2	bar/24 8/6	-0.303 ( -0.192)
			42.5% 7.5% 0.1% - 57.5% 14.7% 0.5%

Annotation

Chuck Bower: With a worse homeboard and Royset still solidly in this game, giving up the anchor and leaving a ton of return shots would be unwise as he correctly concludes.

Move number 16: Moshe Tissona to play 11

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 153, Jon Royset 158
Position ID: yG3GYCCwc+EBAw Match ID: MIEkA2AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 9/8 6/3

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	6/4 5/4(2)	+0.050
			50.5% 10.4% 0.3% - 49.5% 6.8% 0.1%
•	2	2	9/8 6/3	+0.039 ( -0.011)
			50.5% 10.4% 0.3% - 49.5% 7.7% 0.2%
	3	2	5/3(2)	+0.032 ( -0.018)
			49.9% 10.1% 0.2% - 50.1% 6.7% 0.1%
	4	2	9/8 6/4 5/4	-0.000 ( -0.051)
			49.2% 9.6% 0.2% - 50.8% 7.2% 0.2%
	5	2	6/2	-0.025 ( -0.076)
			48.5% 11.0% 0.3% - 51.5% 8.9% 0.2%

Move number 17: Jon Royset to play 32

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 149, Jon Royset 158
Position ID: ZPPgAQPIbcZgIA Match ID: cIkpA2AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves 24/22* 7/4

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	24/22* 7/4	+0.150
			54.5% 11.0% 0.3% - 45.5% 10.3% 0.3%
	2	2	24/22* 4/1	+0.068 ( -0.082)
			52.8% 9.7% 0.2% - 47.2% 11.6% 0.3%
	3	2	24/22* 13/10	+0.052 ( -0.098)
			52.2% 9.8% 0.2% - 47.8% 11.6% 0.3%
	4	2	13/10 6/4	-0.026 ( -0.176)
			50.3% 8.4% 0.2% - 49.7% 12.0% 0.3%
	5	2	10/8 10/7	-0.041 ( -0.191)
			49.4% 8.0% 0.1% - 50.6% 10.6% 0.2%

Move number 18: Moshe Tissona to play 53

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 171, Jon Royset 153
Position ID: mGvGYAiwefCAQQ Match ID: MIEuA2AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves bar/22 8/3*

Ply

Move

Equity

•

bar/22 8/3*

-0.156

46.0%	10.7%	0.4%	-	54.0%	11.4%	0.3%	-0.092	-0.156
0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	-	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.005	0.012

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1176076544

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

bar/20 8/5

-0.162 ( -0.006)

45.4%	8.1%	0.3%	-	54.6%	6.9%	0.2%	-0.081	-0.162
0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	-	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.004	0.010

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1176076544

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

bar/20 13/10

-0.163 ( -0.007)

45.6%	9.3%	0.3%	-	54.4%	8.8%	0.2%	-0.085	-0.163
0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	-	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.005	0.011

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1176076544

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

bar/22 13/8

-0.130 ( +0.026)

45.8% 9.7% 0.3% - 54.1% 9.7% 0.2%

bar/20 5/2

-0.357 ( -0.201)

39.9% 7.2% 0.2% - 60.1% 11.3% 0.3%

Annotation

Casper van der Tak: The rollouts show that Tissona's play may be somewhat better than B/20 13/10 and B/20 8/5. The hit is motivated by Royset's blot on the bar, and the wish to prevent, to the extent possible, Royset from escaping his back checker. The loose hit is not clear because Tissona lacks covers.

Move number 19: Jon Royset to play 62

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 163, Jon Royset 156
Position ID: ZHPwgAmYa8ZgQA Match ID: cAkrA2AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves bar/23 13/7

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/23 13/7	+0.201
			55.7% 12.2% 0.3% - 44.3% 10.4% 0.3%
	2	2	bar/23 7/1	+0.040 ( -0.161)
			51.6% 11.6% 0.2% - 48.4% 13.0% 0.4%
	3	0	bar/23 10/4	-0.129 ( -0.329)
			47.1% 12.5% 0.4% - 52.9% 17.0% 0.9%
	4	0	bar/23 8/2	-0.248 ( -0.448)
			44.7% 11.7% 0.3% - 55.3% 20.0% 1.3%

Move number 20: Moshe Tissona to play 63

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 163, Jon Royset 148
Position ID: mNuMYBBkc/CACQ Match ID: MAEvA2AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 22/13

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	22/13	-0.168
			45.0% 8.0% 0.2% - 55.0% 8.9% 0.2%
	2	2	22/16 8/5	-0.240 ( -0.072)
			43.6% 8.8% 0.2% - 56.4% 11.9% 0.3%
	3	2	22/16 6/3	-0.337 ( -0.169)
			41.5% 7.9% 0.2% - 58.5% 12.9% 0.4%
	4	2	13/4	-0.338 ( -0.170)
			41.9% 9.6% 0.3% - 58.1% 15.9% 0.6%
	5	2	22/16 13/10	-0.351 ( -0.184)
			42.2% 8.7% 0.2% - 57.8% 16.2% 0.6%

Move number 21: Jon Royset to play 11

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 154, Jon Royset 148
Position ID: ZHPwAQOY24xgEA Match ID: cIkkA2AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves 23/22*/21 10/9(2)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	23/22*/21 10/9(2)	+0.415
			61.3% 12.8% 0.3% - 38.7% 7.1% 0.2%
	2	2	23/22*/21 4/3(2)	+0.339 ( -0.077)
			59.2% 13.1% 0.3% - 40.8% 8.3% 0.2%
	3	2	23/22* 10/7	+0.312 ( -0.103)
			58.0% 13.9% 0.3% - 42.0% 8.3% 0.2%
	4	2	23/22* 8/6 8/7	+0.310 ( -0.105)
			58.2% 12.7% 0.2% - 41.8% 7.7% 0.2%
	5	2	23/22*/21 8/7(2)	+0.306 ( -0.110)
			58.0% 12.9% 0.2% - 42.0% 7.9% 0.2%

Move number 22: Moshe Tissona to play 41

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 176, Jon Royset 144
Position ID: mNuGYASwOfiAQQ Match ID: MAEmA2AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves bar/20

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/20	-0.292
			41.2% 6.5% 0.1% - 58.7% 8.8% 0.2%
	2	2	bar/24 8/4*	-0.370 ( -0.078)
			41.6% 8.8% 0.2% - 58.4% 16.9% 0.7%
	3	2	bar/24 13/9	-0.406 ( -0.114)
			40.3% 8.1% 0.1% - 59.7% 16.1% 0.6%
	4	0	bar/24 6/2	-0.680 ( -0.388)
			34.8% 6.3% 0.1% - 65.2% 19.8% 0.9%
	5	0	bar/24 5/1	-0.743 ( -0.451)
			33.6% 5.9% 0.1% - 66.4% 19.7% 0.8%

Annotation

Chuck Bower: Again, hitting is an error. Even when missed there are no cover numbers, and the 24-point here is not the optimum spot for the back checker, anyway.

Casper van der Tak: Now hitting is too dangerous; Tissona cannot afford to have a fourth checker send back behind Royset's prime. Moving B/20 enables the checker to jump into the outfield, an important consideration now that Royset has a reasonably strong prime.

Move number 23: Jon Royset to play 64

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 171, Jon Royset 144
Position ID: sDn4gAOY24ZgBA Match ID: cAkzA2AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves 21/15 13/9

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	21/15 13/9	+0.414
			62.5% 8.7% 0.1% - 37.5% 5.5% 0.1%
	2	2	13/3	+0.388 ( -0.026)
			60.7% 11.9% 0.2% - 39.3% 6.5% 0.2%
	3	2	13/7 6/2	+0.346 ( -0.068)
			59.8% 11.2% 0.2% - 40.2% 7.0% 0.2%
	4	2	21/11	+0.293 ( -0.121)
			58.9% 9.1% 0.1% - 41.1% 6.9% 0.1%
	5	2	13/7 8/4	+0.224 ( -0.191)
			55.7% 11.8% 0.2% - 44.3% 7.8% 0.2%

Move number 24: Moshe Tissona to play 42

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 171, Jon Royset 134
Position ID: mNsOxACwOfiAAw Match ID: MAEqA2AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 13/9 8/6

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	13/9 8/6	-0.435
			37.3% 5.2% 0.1% - 62.7% 8.6% 0.1%
	2	2	8/4 6/4	-0.463 ( -0.028)
			36.2% 5.4% 0.1% - 63.8% 8.7% 0.2%
	3	2	8/2	-0.528 ( -0.093)
			34.3% 5.1% 0.1% - 65.7% 8.9% 0.2%
	4	2	13/11 8/4	-0.537 ( -0.102)
			36.5% 6.0% 0.1% - 63.5% 14.1% 0.4%
	5	2	8/6 8/4	-0.553 ( -0.118)
			35.0% 5.7% 0.1% - 65.0% 11.7% 0.3%

Annotation

Casper van der Tak: Not a spectacular move, but mobilizing checkers on the midpoint, even at the expense of direct shots, is a recurrent theme when you have a stack on the midpoint.

Move number 25: Jon Royset to play 65

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 165, Jon Royset 134
Position ID: sLPwgAOY2w7EAA Match ID: cAk3A2AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves 15/4

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	15/4	+0.525
			65.8% 9.0% 0.1% - 34.2% 4.1% 0.1%
	2	2	15/9 6/1	+0.492 ( -0.033)
			64.9% 9.2% 0.1% - 35.1% 4.5% 0.1%
	3	2	15/10 9/3	+0.423 ( -0.102)
			62.5% 9.4% 0.2% - 37.5% 5.3% 0.1%
	4	2	15/9 8/3	+0.417 ( -0.108)
			62.3% 9.3% 0.1% - 37.7% 4.9% 0.1%
	5	2	15/9 7/2	+0.379 ( -0.146)
			61.1% 9.5% 0.2% - 38.9% 5.5% 0.1%

Move number 26: Moshe Tissona to play 32

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 165, Jon Royset 123
Position ID: OLcdwACws/CAAw Match ID: MIEpA2AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 9/4

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	9/4	-0.418
			37.3% 5.8% 0.1% - 62.7% 9.0% 0.2%
	2	2	13/8	-0.480 ( -0.062)
			36.7% 5.8% 0.1% - 63.3% 11.7% 0.2%
	3	2	13/11 9/6	-0.539 ( -0.121)
			35.3% 5.7% 0.1% - 64.7% 12.9% 0.2%
	4	2	8/6 8/5	-0.575 ( -0.157)
			34.0% 5.8% 0.1% - 66.0% 12.9% 0.2%
	5	2	6/3 5/3	-0.576 ( -0.158)
			34.7% 5.5% 0.1% - 65.3% 14.1% 0.3%

Move number 27: Jon Royset to play 43

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 160, Jon Royset 123
Position ID: aGfwgAM4tx3AAA Match ID: cAkuA2AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves 9/2

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	9/2	+0.470
			64.1% 9.8% 0.2% - 35.9% 4.7% 0.1%
	2	2	6/2 4/1	+0.432 ( -0.038)
			63.0% 9.7% 0.2% - 37.0% 5.3% 0.1%
	3	2	7/4 7/3	+0.406 ( -0.063)
			61.9% 10.2% 0.2% - 38.1% 5.3% 0.1%
	4	2	7/3 6/3	+0.380 ( -0.090)
			60.7% 11.4% 0.2% - 39.3% 6.6% 0.1%
	5	2	9/6 7/3	+0.365 ( -0.104)
			60.2% 11.3% 0.2% - 39.8% 6.5% 0.1%

Move number 28: Moshe Tissona to play 64

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 160, Jon Royset 116
Position ID: cm4bwABoZ/CAAw Match ID: MAEzA2AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 13/3

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	13/3	-0.321
			40.1% 7.2% 0.1% - 59.9% 9.1% 0.2%
	2	2	20/14 8/4	-0.333 ( -0.013)
			40.2% 6.8% 0.1% - 59.8% 10.1% 0.2%
	3	2	20/14 13/9	-0.343 ( -0.023)
			40.7% 6.8% 0.1% - 59.3% 12.2% 0.4%
	4	2	20/10	-0.367 ( -0.046)
			39.7% 6.8% 0.1% - 60.3% 10.9% 0.2%
	5	2	20/14 6/2	-0.420 ( -0.099)
			38.0% 6.4% 0.1% - 62.0% 10.9% 0.3%

Move number 29: Jon Royset to play 51

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 150, Jon Royset 116
Position ID: 1M7ggANybhvAAA Match ID: cIkmA2AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves 6/1 2/1

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	8/7 8/3	+0.409
			62.5% 9.3% 0.2% - 37.5% 5.4% 0.1%
	2	2	6/1 4/3	+0.406 ( -0.003)
			62.4% 9.2% 0.2% - 37.6% 5.6% 0.1%
	3	2	9/8 9/4	+0.397 ( -0.012)
			62.3% 8.6% 0.2% - 37.7% 5.2% 0.0%
•	4	2	6/1 2/1	+0.369 ( -0.040)
			61.2% 9.4% 0.1% - 38.8% 6.1% 0.1%
	5	2	8/3 4/3	+0.345 ( -0.064)
			60.2% 10.7% 0.2% - 39.8% 7.0% 0.2%

Annotation

Casper van der Tak: Royset is far ahead in the race. His prime has some value in restricting Tissona's movements, and occasionally may force Tissona to make positional concessions if he cannot jump the third checker on his anchor. But chances of this happening are slim. The text play strips Royset's position completely and makes it difficult for him to build a strong board. Rolls containing a 4 will play awkwardly. 8/7 8/3 is more flexible.

Move number 30: Moshe Tissona to play 63

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 150, Jon Royset 110
Position ID: 42wbwADUzuCAAw Match ID: MAEvA2AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 13/4

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	13/4	-0.211
			43.0% 8.8% 0.1% - 57.0% 8.7% 0.1%
	2	2	20/14 6/3	-0.232 ( -0.021)
			42.9% 8.3% 0.1% - 57.1% 9.3% 0.2%
	3	2	8/5 8/2	-0.463 ( -0.253)
			36.1% 7.5% 0.1% - 63.9% 10.2% 0.2%
	4	2	20/11	-0.463 ( -0.253)
			37.7% 6.9% 0.1% - 62.3% 13.4% 0.3%
	5	2	20/14 4/1	-0.488 ( -0.278)
			36.1% 6.2% 0.1% - 63.9% 11.5% 0.2%

Move number 31: Jon Royset to play 63

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 141, Jon Royset 110
Position ID: tJ3BgAPjbBvAAA Match ID: cAkvA2AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves 9/6 9/3

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	9/6 9/3	+0.305
			59.5% 9.6% 0.1% - 40.5% 7.1% 0.1%
	2	2	18/9	-0.030 ( -0.334)
			49.3% 10.2% 0.2% - 50.7% 10.2% 0.2%
	3	0	9/3 4/1	+0.011 ( -0.294)
			50.8% 9.4% 0.1% - 49.2% 11.3% 0.3%
	4	0	7/4 7/1	-0.009 ( -0.314)
			50.4% 9.0% 0.1% - 49.6% 11.6% 0.1%
	5	0	8/2 4/1	-0.054 ( -0.359)
			49.3% 9.1% 0.1% - 50.7% 12.6% 0.2%

Move number 32: Moshe Tissona to play 61

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 141, Jon Royset 101
Position ID: 07kNwAC0ncGAAw Match ID: MAEnA2AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 20/13

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	20/13	-0.127
			45.1% 9.1% 0.2% - 54.9% 7.7% 0.1%
	2	2	20/14 4/3	-0.142 ( -0.014)
			44.9% 9.1% 0.2% - 55.1% 8.3% 0.1%
	3	2	20/14 6/5	-0.155 ( -0.027)
			44.7% 9.1% 0.2% - 55.3% 8.7% 0.2%
	4	2	20/14 3/2	-0.195 ( -0.068)
			43.5% 8.8% 0.1% - 56.5% 8.9% 0.2%
	5	2	8/2 3/2	-0.293 ( -0.165)
			41.4% 10.3% 0.1% - 58.6% 12.8% 0.2%

Move number 33: Jon Royset to play 11

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 134, Jon Royset 101
Position ID: tJ3BAQPTuQ3AAA Match ID: cIkkA2AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves 8/6 8/7 4/3

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	8/6 8/7 4/3	+0.256
			58.6% 7.6% 0.1% - 41.4% 6.8% 0.0%
	2	2	8/7(2) 4/2	+0.243 ( -0.013)
			58.3% 7.5% 0.1% - 41.7% 6.9% 0.0%
	3	2	4/2(2)	+0.215 ( -0.041)
			57.4% 7.8% 0.1% - 42.6% 7.5% 0.0%
	4	2	8/6 8/7 3/2	+0.211 ( -0.045)
			57.2% 7.6% 0.1% - 42.8% 7.2% 0.0%
	5	2	8/7(2) 4/3(2)	+0.190 ( -0.066)
			56.7% 7.1% 0.1% - 43.3% 7.5% 0.0%

Move number 34: Moshe Tissona to play 32

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 134, Jon Royset 97
Position ID: s3kHwAC0ncEBAw Match ID: MIEpA2AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 13/8

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	13/8	-0.080
			46.5% 9.3% 0.1% - 53.5% 7.3% 0.1%
	2	2	6/3 4/2	-0.151 ( -0.071)
			44.6% 9.1% 0.1% - 55.4% 8.2% 0.1%
	3	2	8/6 8/5	-0.191 ( -0.110)
			43.0% 8.9% 0.1% - 57.0% 7.6% 0.1%
	4	2	6/3 5/3	-0.217 ( -0.136)
			42.7% 8.1% 0.1% - 57.3% 8.2% 0.1%
	5	2	6/4 6/3	-0.225 ( -0.144)
			42.5% 7.9% 0.1% - 57.5% 8.2% 0.1%

Move number 35: Jon Royset to play 42

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 129, Jon Royset 97
Position ID: tJ2DAQOzeQfAAA Match ID: cAkqA2AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves 6/2 4/2

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	6/2 4/2	+0.169
			56.3% 7.7% 0.0% - 43.7% 8.7% 0.1%
	2	2	6/4 6/2	+0.165 ( -0.004)
			56.1% 7.8% 0.0% - 43.9% 8.7% 0.1%
	3	2	7/3 6/4	+0.109 ( -0.059)
			54.4% 7.9% 0.1% - 45.6% 9.1% 0.1%
	4	2	6/2 3/1	+0.076 ( -0.093)
			54.1% 6.7% 0.0% - 45.9% 10.1% 0.1%
	5	2	7/3 4/2	+0.073 ( -0.096)
			53.6% 7.5% 0.0% - 46.4% 9.8% 0.1%

Annotation

Christian Toth: This is the kind of move that I never spend time on. I would play 6/4 6/2 pretty quickly because the energy spent finding the reason 6/2 4/2 could be better is not worth it, and there is still no difference in my eyes.

Move number 36: Moshe Tissona to play 62

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 129, Jon Royset 91
Position ID: 23IHwAC0nYMBAw Match ID: MAErA2AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 8/2 5/3

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	8/2 5/3	-0.098
			46.1% 10.8% 0.1% - 53.9% 8.6% 0.1%
	2	2	8/2 6/4	-0.106 ( -0.008)
			46.0% 10.5% 0.1% - 54.0% 8.7% 0.1%
	3	2	8/2 4/2	-0.134 ( -0.036)
			45.2% 10.2% 0.1% - 54.8% 9.1% 0.1%
	4	2	8/2 3/1	-0.183 ( -0.085)
			43.8% 9.6% 0.1% - 56.2% 9.0% 0.1%
	5	2	8/6 8/2	-0.256 ( -0.158)
			41.8% 10.8% 0.2% - 58.2% 13.0% 0.2%

Move number 37: Jon Royset to play 43

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 121, Jon Royset 91
Position ID: 2jqDAQPbcgfAAA Match ID: cAkuA2AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves 7/4 6/2

Ply

Move

Equity

•

7/4 6/2

+0.004

51.1%	8.5%	0.1%	-	48.9%	10.5%	0.3%	-0.002	+0.046
0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	-	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.004	0.008

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1174991744

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

7/4 7/3

-0.002 ( -0.006)

50.4%	10.3%	0.1%	-	49.6%	10.2%	0.2%	+0.006	+0.040
0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	-	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	0.004	0.008

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1174991744

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

18/14 7/4

-0.039 ( -0.043)

48.1%	16.2%	0.3%	-	51.9%	14.1%	0.3%	-0.019	+0.004
0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	-	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.004	0.008

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1174991744

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

7/3 6/3

-0.154 ( -0.158)

47.1%	7.4%	0.1%	-	52.9%	12.7%	0.3%	-0.117	-0.110
0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	-	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	0.004	0.008

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1174991744

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

7/3 4/1

-0.053 ( -0.057)

50.4% 6.3% 0.0% - 49.6% 11.7% 0.1%

Annotation

Chuck Bower: 7/4 18/14 would be best at some scores, but not here. The problem is that although Royset is probably (but not always) immune from being hit for this turn, his two blots are so far from home that he is likely to leave shots (including many double shots) next turn after Tissona has had a chance to shore up the leaks in his board.

Bots: Snowie thought the move played was a small 0.018 mistake, preferring 7/4 7/3.

Move number 38: Moshe Tissona to play 54

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 121, Jon Royset 84
Position ID: u80GwADaOoMBAw Match ID: MIEyA2AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 8/4 8/3

Alert: very bad move ( -0.218)

Ply

Move

Equity

6/1 5/1

-0.114

46.0%	10.3%	0.3%	-	54.0%	10.3%	0.2%	-0.080	-0.114
0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	-	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.004	0.008

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1174985856

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

8/3 6/2

-0.314 ( -0.200)

40.2%	8.8%	0.2%	-	59.8%	16.1%	0.2%	-0.272	-0.314
0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	-	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.004	0.008

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1174985856

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

•

8/4 8/3

-0.332 ( -0.218)

41.1%	8.9%	0.3%	-	58.9%	13.1%	0.4%	-0.223	-0.332
0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	-	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.004	0.008

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1174985856

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

6/2 6/1

-0.428 ( -0.314)

37.8%	8.3%	0.2%	-	62.2%	16.3%	0.4%	-0.331	-0.428
0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	-	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	0.004	0.009

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1174985856

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

20/15 6/2

-0.530 ( -0.416)

39.9% 9.9% 0.2% - 60.1% 26.9% 0.6%

Annotation

Chuck Bower: The combatants have been playing musical chairs but the music is about to stop. Tissona not only should be cleaning up his board, preparing for the upcoming shots, but also should be saving a six. Note that after 6/1, 5/1, a six next turn will nicely cover the 2-point.

Move number 39: Jon Royset to play 53

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 112, Jon Royset 84
Position ID: uuuAAQO7zQbAAA Match ID: cIkuA2AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves 7/4 7/2

Alert: very bad move ( -0.402)

Ply

Move

Equity

18/15 18/13

+0.444

61.4%	15.8%	0.4%	-	38.6%	9.1%	0.2%	+0.300	+0.444
0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	-	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.003	0.007

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1174985856

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

18/10

+0.085 ( -0.359)

52.1%	15.0%	0.3%	-	47.9%	10.8%	0.3%	+0.088	+0.085
0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	-	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.004	0.008

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1174985856

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

•

7/4 7/2

+0.043 ( -0.402)

51.4%	12.3%	0.2%	-	48.6%	11.3%	0.3%	+0.038	+0.043
0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	-	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.004	0.008

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1174985856

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

6/3 6/1

-0.086 ( -0.530)

48.2%	8.1%	0.1%	-	51.8%	12.2%	0.3%	-0.077	-0.086
0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	-	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	0.004	0.008

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1174985856

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

18/13 7/4

-0.082 ( -0.526)

47.5% 17.5% 0.4% - 52.5% 22.8% 1.2%

Annotation

Chuck Bower: Royset felt bad that Tissona would be going to lunch alone so he trumps a Double Whopper with a Triple! He may have been preparing for opp's uncomfortable six, but a non-six happens twice as often and then the shoe will be on the other foot. One of the big pluses here is getting a checker to the midpoint. There it is, potentially a single die from home, and combined with 18/15 Tissona's two best cover numbers (aces and tres) dupe his two hitting numbers. Just to drive home the importance of the location of checkers, a quickie Snowie rollout of this position with a 4-1 roll said it's a coin toss between 7/3 7/6 and 18/13. Part of this "location of checkers" favoring 7/3 7/6 is the spare on the 6-point which was unavailable for Royset's 5-3. In his defense, this is far from a trivial decision and the magnitude of the error seems excessively penal, but the real punishment was yet to come.

Casper van der Tak: In addition to Chuck's comments, note that Tissona has only 15 hit and cover numbers after 18/13 18/15. If Royset had rolled 41 and played 18/13, there would have been 20 hit-and-cover numbers and 2 numbers that hit two checkers. The 5-point board of Royset is very strong in all variations in which Tissona hits but needs to leave a return shot.

Christian Toth: I know by experience that usually in these situations the best moves are the simple ones such as 7/4 7/2. Naturally, this is when the other side has a 5-point board at least. There are certain situations where even 63 6/2 is better than 7/4 7/2 but in these circumstances, with the 2 and 5 points open, Red should take the opportunity to increase his advantage in the race because he has the stronger board, is likely to have to leave a shot in the next roll, and because White will probably have to leave one of his anchors on the next roll. The situation could be worse. For example, suppose the 2 point is open and the 5 is closed, it would then be very hard for me to choose between the two, and I would most likely go safe. However, in this situation, the open 5-point on the White side asks for an apparently bold play.

Move number 40: Moshe Tissona to play 22

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 112, Jon Royset 76
Position ID: ezsDwAC664ABAw Match ID: MAEpA2AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 5/1 4/2 3/1

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	5/1 4/2 3/1	+0.209
			54.5% 15.6% 0.1% - 45.5% 7.0% 0.1%
	2	2	20/18 13/11(2) 4/2	+0.116 ( -0.093)
			51.5% 16.3% 0.3% - 48.5% 10.9% 0.2%
	3	2	20/18(2) 4/2 3/1	+0.098 ( -0.111)
			53.0% 14.7% 0.2% - 47.0% 11.6% 0.3%
	4	2	20/18 5/1 4/2	-0.012 ( -0.221)
			49.2% 13.4% 0.1% - 50.8% 13.0% 0.2%
	5	2	20/18 5/1 3/1	-0.016 ( -0.225)
			49.0% 13.5% 0.1% - 51.0% 12.8% 0.2%

Move number 41: Jon Royset to play 65

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 104, Jon Royset 76
Position ID: 2+aAAQN7OwPAAA Match ID: cAk3A2AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves 18/7

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	18/7	-0.240
			44.0% 7.5% 0.0% - 56.0% 14.6% 0.1%

Annotation

Chuck Bower: This position is a billboard example of what market loss means. With a cubeless equity of 0.29, this hardly looks like a double. However, according to Snowie, if Tissona doesn't double this time, next turn the breakdown looks like: 52% passes (some shouldn't be doubled because they're too good), 34% games where Royset is actually winning, and 14% in which Tissona still leads, but not enough to double. That adds up to 100%, and no mention has been made of the Double+Take scenario. In fact, Snowie says only 2/1296 fit this category! Live cube rollouts by both bots favor the Double by 0.05 emg. This position belongs in a textbook.

Christian Toth: This is exactly what I was trying to avoid as Red on the 53 play 2 moves ago with 18/15 18/13. 23 numbers that hit, and reasonable gammon chances, is enough volatility to make it a double. If I fail to hit now, it will take a while before I get another chance to double. So, I would tend to double here. There is always a chance to be right...

Bots: Snowie thinks this is a borderline Double/No Double whereas GNU thinks doubling would be a -0.107 blunder.

Move number 42: Moshe Tissona doubles to 2

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 104, Jon Royset 65
Position ID: ezsLgADb5oABAw Match ID: MBkgA2AAIAAA

• Jon Royset accepts

Alert: wrong double ( -0.029)!

Cube decision

Rollout cubeless equity

+0.285

(Money: +0.285)

Cubeful equities:

No double

+0.314

Double, pass

+1.000

(+0.686)

Double, take

+0.286

(0.029)

Proper cube action:

No double, take (4.0%)

Rollout details

	Win	W g	W bg		Lose	L g	L bg	Cubeless	Cubeful
Centered 1-cube	59.8%	14.2%	0.4%	-	40.2%	5.6%	0.1%	+0.285	+0.314
Standard error	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	-	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.003	0.007
Player Jon Royset owns 2-cube	59.7%	13.9%	0.5%	-	40.3%	5.6%	0.1%	+0.557	+0.286
Standard error	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	-	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.008	0.012

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1174725120 and quasi-random dice

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed

Move number 43: Moshe Tissona to play 65

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 104, Jon Royset 65
Position ID: ezsLgADb5oABAw Match ID: EQE3A2AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 20/15 13/7*

Alert: lucky roll! ( +0.325)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	20/15 13/7*	+0.395
			70.6% 16.2% 0.1% - 29.4% 8.1% 0.2%
	2	2	13/8 13/7*	+0.349 ( -0.046)
			67.9% 17.2% 0.1% - 32.1% 6.7% 0.1%
	3	2	13/7*/2	+0.314 ( -0.081)
			67.5% 13.7% 0.1% - 32.5% 4.9% 0.1%
	4	2	13/7* 6/1	+0.207 ( -0.188)
			64.6% 12.0% 0.1% - 35.4% 7.8% 0.1%
	5	0	20/9	-0.787 ( -1.182)
			32.1% 3.1% 0.0% - 67.9% 13.5% 0.1%

Move number 44: Jon Royset to play 65

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 93, Jon Royset 72
Position ID: 2+YCCQJ7OwsAQA Match ID: UQk3A2AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves bar/20 7/1

Alert: lucky roll! ( +0.431)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/20 7/1	+0.080
			43.3% 10.0% 0.1% - 56.7% 2.6% 0.0%
	2	2	bar/14	-0.120 ( -0.200)
			41.3% 5.1% 0.1% - 58.7% 14.8% 0.2%

Move number 45: Moshe Tissona to play 51

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 93, Jon Royset 61
Position ID: 93YGAALb5gIJAg Match ID: EYEmA2AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 15/10 6/5*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	15/10 6/5*	+0.052
			64.0% 3.3% 0.0% - 36.0% 17.8% 0.6%
	2	2	13/8 6/5*	+0.014 ( -0.038)
			62.9% 3.7% 0.0% - 37.1% 20.1% 0.6%
	3	2	20/15 6/5*	+0.008 ( -0.043)
			61.3% 3.1% 0.0% - 38.7% 15.0% 0.2%
	4	2	7/2 6/5*	-0.206 ( -0.257)
			53.9% 2.2% 0.0% - 46.1% 18.7% 0.4%
	5	0	13/7	-0.431 ( -0.483)
			41.0% 2.0% 0.0% - 59.0% 5.2% 0.0%

Move number 46: Jon Royset to play 61

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 87, Jon Royset 66
Position ID: 29YiAgL3dgYAQA Match ID: UQknA2AAIAAA

• Jon Royset cannot move

Alert: very unlucky roll! ( -0.613)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
			Cannot move

Move number 47: Moshe Tissona to play 51

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 87, Jon Royset 66
Position ID: 93YGAEDb1iICAg Match ID: EYEmA2AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 10/5 7/6

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	13/12 10/5	+0.930
			95.3% 4.5% 0.0% - 4.7% 0.4% 0.0%
•	2	2	10/5 7/6	+0.911 ( -0.019)
			94.3% 4.9% 0.0% - 5.7% 0.4% 0.0%
	3	0	20/15 5/4	+0.154 ( -0.776)
			66.1% 2.6% 0.0% - 33.9% 6.6% 0.2%
	4	0	7/2 5/4	+0.139 ( -0.791)
			64.6% 2.0% 0.0% - 35.4% 4.1% 0.1%
	5	0	13/8 7/6	+0.115 ( -0.815)
			65.3% 5.0% 0.0% - 34.7% 10.6% 0.2%

Move number 48: Moshe Tissona to play 63

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 81, Jon Royset 66
Position ID: 93YGAEDbtgMCAg Match ID: EQEvA2AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 20/11

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	20/17 13/7	+0.923
			95.1% 4.1% 0.0% - 4.9% 0.2% 0.0%
•	2	2	20/11	+0.923 ( +0.000)
			95.0% 4.2% 0.0% - 5.0% 0.2% 0.0%
	3	2	20/14 13/10	+0.921 ( -0.001)
			95.0% 4.3% 0.0% - 5.0% 0.2% 0.0%
	4	2	13/4	+0.910 ( -0.012)
			94.5% 4.2% 0.0% - 5.5% 0.2% 0.0%
	5	2	20/14 6/3	+0.906 ( -0.017)
			94.6% 3.6% 0.0% - 5.4% 0.2% 0.0%

Move number 49: Moshe Tissona to play 31

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 72, Jon Royset 66
Position ID: 93YGAEDbtoMEAA Match ID: EYElA2AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 13/12 11/8

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	11/7	+0.928
			95.3% 3.9% 0.0% - 4.7% 0.1% 0.0%
	2	2	13/10 6/5	+0.927 ( -0.000)
			95.2% 4.1% 0.0% - 4.8% 0.1% 0.0%
•	3	2	13/12 11/8	+0.925 ( -0.003)
			95.1% 4.1% 0.0% - 4.9% 0.1% 0.0%
	4	2	13/9	+0.915 ( -0.013)
			94.7% 4.1% 0.0% - 5.3% 0.1% 0.0%
	5	2	11/8 6/5	+0.913 ( -0.015)
			94.7% 3.9% 0.0% - 5.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Move number 50: Moshe Tissona to play 43

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 68, Jon Royset 66
Position ID: 93YGAEDbthMCAA Match ID: EQEuA2AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 12/5

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	12/9 8/4	+0.935
			95.7% 3.6% 0.0% - 4.3% 0.0% 0.0%
•	2	2	12/5	+0.935 ( -0.000)
			95.7% 3.8% 0.0% - 4.3% 0.0% 0.0%
	3	2	8/4 6/3	+0.933 ( -0.002)
			95.8% 3.4% 0.0% - 4.2% 0.0% 0.0%
	4	2	12/8 6/3	+0.928 ( -0.007)
			95.7% 3.1% 0.0% - 4.3% 0.1% 0.0%
	5	2	12/9 6/2	+0.928 ( -0.008)
			95.6% 3.2% 0.0% - 4.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Move number 51: Moshe Tissona to play 65

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 61, Jon Royset 66
Position ID: 93YGAEDbdicAAA Match ID: EQE3A2AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 8/3 6/off

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	8/3 6/off	+0.938
			95.8% 3.6% 0.0% - 4.2% 0.0% 0.0%
	2	2	8/2 6/1	+0.905 ( -0.033)
			95.0% 2.4% 0.0% - 5.0% 0.0% 0.0%
	3	2	8/2 5/off	+0.865 ( -0.073)
			92.7% 3.8% 0.0% - 7.3% 0.0% 0.0%

Move number 52: Moshe Tissona to play 31

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 50, Jon Royset 66
Position ID: 93YGAEDb7QYAAA Match ID: EYElA2AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 6/5 6/3

Ply

Move

Equity

5/4 3/off

+0.994

98.1%	3.7%	0.1%	-	1.9%	0.0%	0.0%	+1.001	+0.994
0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	-	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.001	0.001

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175016064

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

5/1

+0.975 ( -0.019)

97.8%	2.6%	0.1%	-	2.2%	0.0%	0.0%	+0.983	+0.975
0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	-	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.001	0.001

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175016064

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

5/2 3/2

+0.966 ( -0.028)

97.6%	2.2%	0.0%	-	2.4%	0.0%	0.0%	+0.974	+0.966
0.0%	0.1%	0.4%	-	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.001	0.001

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175016064

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

•

6/5 6/3

+0.937 ( -0.057)

96.4%	1.9%	0.1%	-	3.6%	0.0%	0.0%	+0.947	+0.937
0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	-	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.001	0.001

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175016064

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

4/3 4/1

+0.844 ( -0.150)

92.8% 1.3% 0.0% - 7.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Annotation

Chuck Bower: Safe ain't everything. Opening the door not only cuts Tissona's gammon chances in half, but increases Royset's total winning chances by 2%. Taking a checker off leaves no gaps, an even number on the highest point and an even total on the two highest points. That's pretty darn safe in its own right.

Christian Toth: Woops! Strange technique for a World Championship final, but no one is above making a mistake. I think there is an article in Robertie and Goulding's defunct Backgammon Magazine about a double-5 to be played in similar circumstances that completely settles any argument for such situations. I recommend it to the serious student to try to find it. Even though I am now a retired player for the last 3-4 years, that article was so convincing that I still remember it. If my memory doesn't fail me, their conclusion was to always tear off when in doubt, or something along those lines.

Move number 53: Jon Royset to play 61

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 46, Jon Royset 66
Position ID: 29sDAIB7OwMAIA Match ID: UQknA2AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves bar/19 6/5

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/19 6/5	-0.891
			4.7% 0.0% 0.0% - 95.3% 0.0% 0.0%
	2	2	bar/18	-0.896 ( -0.005)
			4.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 95.5% 0.0% 0.0%
	3	2	bar/19 4/3	-0.911 ( -0.021)
			3.8% 0.0% 0.0% - 96.2% 0.0% 0.0%
	4	2	bar/19 2/1	-0.913 ( -0.022)
			3.8% 0.0% 0.0% - 96.2% 0.0% 0.0%
	5	2	bar/19 3/2	-0.917 ( -0.026)
			3.6% 0.0% 0.0% - 96.4% 0.0% 0.0%

Move number 54: Moshe Tissona to play 63

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 46, Jon Royset 59
Position ID: 93YFAAHb2wMAAA Match ID: EQEvA2AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 5/off 3/off

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	5/off 3/off	+0.922
			96.6% 0.0% 0.0% - 3.4% 0.0% 0.0%
	2	2	5/2 5/off	+0.881 ( -0.041)
			94.9% 0.0% 0.0% - 5.1% 0.0% 0.0%
	3	2	5/off 4/1	+0.856 ( -0.066)
			93.8% 0.0% 0.0% - 6.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Move number 55: Jon Royset to play 21

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 38, Jon Royset 59
Position ID: 2+0AAODergAgAA Match ID: UQklA2AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves 19/16

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	19/17 6/5	-0.980
			0.9% 0.0% 0.0% - 99.1% 0.0% 0.0%
•	2	2	19/16	-0.980 ( -0.001)
			0.9% 0.0% 0.0% - 99.1% 0.0% 0.0%
	3	2	19/18 6/4	-0.980 ( -0.001)
			0.9% 0.0% 0.0% - 99.1% 0.1% 0.0%
	4	2	19/17 4/3	-0.982 ( -0.002)
			0.8% 0.0% 0.0% - 99.2% 0.0% 0.0%
	5	2	19/17 2/1	-0.982 ( -0.002)
			0.8% 0.0% 0.0% - 99.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Move number 56: Moshe Tissona to play 65

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 38, Jon Royset 56
Position ID: 93YFIADb7QAAAA Match ID: EQE3A2AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 5/off(2)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	5/off(2)	+0.989
			99.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%

Move number 57: Jon Royset to play 65

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 28, Jon Royset 56
Position ID: 2y0AALi3KwABAA Match ID: UQk3A2AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves 16/5

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	16/5	-0.992
			0.4% 0.0% 0.0% - 99.7% 0.0% 0.0%
	2	2	16/10 6/1	-0.995 ( -0.003)
			0.2% 0.0% 0.0% - 99.8% 0.0% 0.0%

Move number 58: Moshe Tissona to play 21

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 28, Jon Royset 45
Position ID: 93YLAADbLQAAAA Match ID: EQElA2AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 2/off 1/off

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	2/off 1/off	+0.978
			99.1% 0.0% 0.0% - 0.9% 0.0% 0.0%
	2	2	3/off	+0.971 ( -0.007)
			98.7% 0.0% 0.0% - 1.3% 0.0% 0.0%
	3	2	4/2 1/off	+0.964 ( -0.014)
			98.4% 0.0% 0.0% - 1.6% 0.0% 0.0%
	4	2	5/4 2/off	+0.961 ( -0.017)
			98.3% 0.0% 0.0% - 1.7% 0.0% 0.0%
	5	2	4/3 2/off	+0.955 ( -0.023)
			98.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 2.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Move number 59: Jon Royset to play 43

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 25, Jon Royset 45
Position ID: dQsAAO7tFgAAAA Match ID: UQkuA2AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves 4/off 3/off

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	4/off 3/off	-0.989
			0.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 99.5% 0.0% 0.0%
	2	2	6/3 4/off	-0.992 ( -0.002)
			0.4% 0.0% 0.0% - 99.6% 0.0% 0.0%
	3	2	6/2 3/off	-0.992 ( -0.003)
			0.3% 0.0% 0.0% - 99.7% 0.0% 0.0%
	4	2	5/1 3/off	-0.993 ( -0.004)
			0.3% 0.0% 0.0% - 99.7% 0.0% 0.0%
	5	2	4/1 4/off	-0.994 ( -0.004)
			0.3% 0.0% 0.0% - 99.7% 0.0% 0.0%

Move number 60: Moshe Tissona to play 54

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 25, Jon Royset 38
Position ID: 99oCAEDdAgAAAA Match ID: EYEyA2AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 5/off 4/off

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	5/off 4/off	+0.995
			99.8% 0.0% 0.0% - 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
	2	2	5/1 4/off	+0.988 ( -0.008)
			99.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%

Move number 61: Jon Royset to play 54

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 16, Jon Royset 38
Position ID: dQEAgHttAQAAAA Match ID: UYkyA2AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves 5/off 4/off

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	5/off 4/off	-0.998
			0.1% 0.0% 0.0% - 99.9% 0.0% 0.0%
	2	2	6/1 4/off	-0.998 ( -0.000)
			0.1% 0.0% 0.0% - 99.9% 0.0% 0.0%
	3	2	6/2 5/off	-0.999 ( -0.001)
			0.1% 0.0% 0.0% - 99.9% 0.0% 0.0%
	4	2	5/1 5/off	-0.999 ( -0.001)
			0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
	5	2	6/1 5/1	-1.000 ( -0.002)
			0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Move number 62: Moshe Tissona to play 55

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 16, Jon Royset 29
Position ID: 96oAAFAXAAAAAA Match ID: EYE2A2AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 4/off 3/off(3)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	4/off 3/off(3)	+1.000
			100.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Game statistics for game 9
Player	Moshe Tissona	Jon Royset
Checker play statistics
Total moves	33	28
Unforced moves	31	25
Moves marked very good	0	0
Moves marked good	0	0
Moves marked interesting	0	0
Moves unmarked	30	24
Moves marked doubtful	2	3
Moves marked bad	0	0
Moves marked very bad	1	1
Error rate (total)	-0.361 ( -1.567%)	-0.521 ( -1.849%)
Error rate (pr. move)	-0.012 ( -0.051% )	-0.021 ( -0.074%)
Chequer play rating	Advanced	Casual player
Luck statistics
Rolls marked very lucky	0	0
Rolls marked lucky	1	1
Rolls unmarked	32	25
Rolls marked unlucky	0	1
Rolls marked very unlucky	0	1
Luck rate (total)	-0.048 ( +2.241%)	-0.656 ( -3.173%)
Luck rate (pr. move)	-0.001 ( +0.068%)	-0.023 ( -0.113%)
Luck rating	None	Better luck next time
Cube statistics
Total cube decisions	21	28
Close or actual cube decisions	2	11
Doubles	1	0
Takes	0	1
Passes	0	0
Missed doubles around DP	0	0
Missed doubles around TG	0	0
Wrong doubles around DP	1 (-0.029 ( -0.101%))	0
Wrong doubles around TG	0	0
Wrong takes	0	0
Wrong passes	0	0
Error rate (total)	-0.029 ( -0.101%)	0
Error rate (per cube decision)	-0.014 ( -0.051% )	0
Cube decision rating	Intermediate	Supernatural
Overall rating
Error rate (total)	-0.390 ( -1.668%)	-0.521 ( -1.849%)
Error rate (per decision)	-0.012 ( -0.051% )	-0.014 ( -0.051%)
Equivalent Snowie error rate	-6.4	-8.5
Overall rating	Advanced	Intermediate

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Output generated Sat Aug 09 02:19:09 2003 by GNU Backgammon 0.14-devel 1.1238 030804 (HTML Export version 1.126)