Game number 10

Moshe Tissona (8 pts) vs. Jon Royset (4 pts) (Match to 25)

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Match Information

Moshe Tissona's rating: 0 (Exp 0)
Jon Royset's rating: 0 (Exp 0)
Date: July 13, 2003
Event: World Championship 2003
Round: Final
Place: Monte Carlo
Annotator: Casper van der Tak, Chuck Bower, Alex Zamanian, Tom Suzanski, Christian Toth, and GNU 0.14

Move number 1: Jon Royset to play 64

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 167, Jon Royset 167
Position ID: 4HPwATDgc/ABMA Match ID: cAgzA4AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves 24/18 13/9

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	24/18 13/9	+0.097
			51.5% 14.0% 0.6% - 48.5% 13.6% 0.4%
	2	2	8/2 6/2	+0.087 ( -0.010)
			50.6% 15.6% 0.8% - 49.4% 14.1% 0.5%
	3	2	24/14	+0.065 ( -0.031)
			51.1% 12.3% 0.5% - 48.9% 13.3% 0.4%
	4	2	24/20 13/7	+0.025 ( -0.072)
			49.3% 13.7% 0.6% - 50.7% 13.6% 0.5%
	5	2	13/9 13/7	+0.009 ( -0.087)
			48.7% 14.8% 0.7% - 51.3% 14.9% 0.8%

Move number 2: Moshe Tissona to play 54

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 167, Jon Royset 157
Position ID: 4HPhQSDgc/ABMA Match ID: MIEyA4AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 24/20 6/1*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	24/20 6/1*	-0.176
			46.8% 12.4% 0.4% - 53.2% 14.5% 0.6%
	2	2	24/20 13/8	-0.221 ( -0.046)
			45.6% 10.7% 0.3% - 54.4% 14.1% 0.4%
	3	2	24/15	-0.284 ( -0.109)
			44.2% 9.1% 0.2% - 55.8% 14.7% 0.4%
	4	2	13/4	-0.295 ( -0.120)
			43.5% 11.4% 0.3% - 56.5% 15.5% 0.8%
	5	2	13/9 6/1*	-0.310 ( -0.135)
			43.5% 12.4% 0.4% - 56.5% 16.7% 1.0%

Move number 3: Jon Royset to play 52

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 158, Jon Royset 158
Position ID: wXPwASHgc+FBQA Match ID: cIkqA4AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves bar/18

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/18	+0.267
			56.2% 12.7% 0.3% - 43.8% 9.0% 0.2%
	2	2	bar/23 18/13	+0.116 ( -0.151)
			52.7% 12.4% 0.4% - 47.3% 13.0% 0.3%
	3	2	bar/20 18/16	+0.094 ( -0.173)
			52.3% 12.7% 0.5% - 47.7% 13.9% 0.4%
	4	2	bar/23 13/8	+0.032 ( -0.236)
			50.1% 13.8% 0.5% - 49.9% 15.2% 0.4%
	5	2	bar/23 6/1*	-0.021 ( -0.288)
			48.9% 12.8% 0.5% - 51.1% 15.6% 0.6%

Move number 4: Moshe Tissona to play 61

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 158, Jon Royset 151
Position ID: 4HPhwQDBc/ABIQ Match ID: MAEnA4AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 20/13

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	8/1	-0.371
			41.9% 9.1% 0.1% - 58.1% 15.1% 0.4%
•	2	2	20/13	-0.437 ( -0.066)
			40.6% 6.3% 0.1% - 59.4% 15.3% 0.3%
	3	2	20/14 6/5	-0.477 ( -0.106)
			39.8% 7.6% 0.1% - 60.2% 17.0% 0.5%
	4	2	24/23 20/14	-0.511 ( -0.140)
			39.2% 6.9% 0.1% - 60.8% 17.3% 0.4%
	5	2	24/23 8/2	-0.513 ( -0.142)
			39.0% 8.3% 0.2% - 61.0% 17.7% 0.6%

Annotation

Chuck Bower: If you start the acepoint, you should finish it. Had Tissona been well ahead in the race, then maybe running to the midpoint would be right. Here he is behind in the race so he should be preparing to spar.

Move number 5: Jon Royset to play 65

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 151, Jon Royset 151
Position ID: wXPwAyDgc+HBAA Match ID: cAk3A4AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves 9/3 8/3

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	9/3 8/3	+0.477
			60.9% 15.9% 0.2% - 39.1% 6.5% 0.1%
	2	2	13/7 6/1*	+0.328 ( -0.148)
			56.6% 14.7% 0.2% - 43.4% 7.8% 0.1%
	3	2	13/8 13/7	+0.320 ( -0.156)
			56.3% 14.8% 0.2% - 43.7% 7.8% 0.1%
	4	2	13/8 9/3	+0.295 ( -0.181)
			56.5% 13.4% 0.2% - 43.5% 7.7% 0.1%
	5	2	13/2	+0.264 ( -0.213)
			55.4% 13.7% 0.2% - 44.6% 8.1% 0.1%

Move number 6: Moshe Tissona to play 65

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 151, Jon Royset 140
Position ID: jM/gwQDBc/ADIA Match ID: MAE3A4AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 24/13

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	24/13	-0.173
			45.7% 1.1% 0.0% - 54.3% 3.3% 0.0%
	2	2	13/2	-0.460 ( -0.286)
			41.0% 7.9% 0.1% - 59.0% 18.9% 0.4%
	3	2	24/18 6/1	-0.481 ( -0.308)
			39.7% 5.4% 0.1% - 60.3% 14.6% 0.3%
	4	2	8/2 6/1	-0.488 ( -0.315)
			40.2% 7.6% 0.1% - 59.8% 18.4% 0.4%
	5	2	24/18 13/8	-0.506 ( -0.332)
			39.6% 5.2% 0.1% - 60.4% 16.0% 0.3%

Move number 7: Jon Royset to play 43

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 140, Jon Royset 140
Position ID: wXPwBwCMz+DBAA Match ID: cAkuA4AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves 13/9 8/5

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		+0.108	(Money: +0.108)
	54.3% 3.3% 0.0% - 45.7% 1.1% 0.0%
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.173
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	(+0.827)
3.	Double, take	-0.055	(-0.228)
Proper cube action:		No double, take (21.6%)

Ply

Move

Equity

13/10 8/4

+0.155

54.4%	2.4%	0.1%	-	45.6%	1.2%	0.0%	+0.102	+0.206
0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	-	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.003	0.007

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1174991744

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

8/5 8/4

+0.149 ( -0.006)

54.2%	2.5%	0.1%	-	45.8%	1.1%	0.1%	+0.098	+0.200
0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	-	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.003	0.007

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1174991744

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

•

13/9 8/5

+0.146 ( -0.009)

54.3%	2.6%	0.0%	-	45.7%	1.1%	0.1%	+0.101	+0.197
0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	-	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.003	0.006

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1174991744

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

13/10 13/9

+0.142 ( -0.013)

54.0%	2.2%	0.1%	-	46.0%	1.0%	0.0%	+0.093	+0.194
0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	-	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.003	0.006

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1174991744

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

13/10 6/2

+0.272 ( +0.117)

58.0% 2.9% 0.0% - 42.0% 0.9% 0.0%

Move number 8: Moshe Tissona to play 33

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 140, Jon Royset 133
Position ID: TJ/CwQDBc/AHAA Match ID: MIEtA4AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 13/10(4)

Alert: lucky roll! ( +0.303)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	13/10(4)	+0.168
			56.5% 1.2% 0.1% - 43.5% 1.7% 0.0%
	2	2	13/10(3) 6/3	+0.156 ( -0.012)
			56.1% 1.1% 0.1% - 43.9% 1.7% 0.0%
	3	2	13/10(3) 8/5	+0.141 ( -0.027)
			55.7% 1.3% 0.1% - 44.3% 2.0% 0.0%
	4	2	13/10(2) 8/5 6/3	+0.075 ( -0.093)
			53.6% 1.4% 0.1% - 46.4% 2.6% 0.0%
	5	2	13/10(2) 8/2	+0.061 ( -0.107)
			53.4% 1.4% 0.1% - 46.6% 3.1% 0.0%

Move number 9: Jon Royset to play 52

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 128, Jon Royset 133
Position ID: wXMeBwBMn8LBAA Match ID: cIkqA4AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves 9/4 6/4

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	13/8 6/4	-0.059
			47.4% 1.2% 0.0% - 52.6% 0.8% 0.0%
	2	2	6/4 6/1	-0.071 ( -0.012)
			47.0% 1.3% 0.0% - 53.0% 0.9% 0.0%
	3	2	13/11 9/4	-0.072 ( -0.013)
			47.0% 1.3% 0.0% - 53.0% 0.9% 0.0%
	4	2	13/11 6/1	-0.072 ( -0.014)
			47.0% 1.2% 0.0% - 53.0% 1.0% 0.0%
•	5	2	9/4 6/4	-0.073 ( -0.014)
			46.9% 1.4% 0.0% - 53.1% 0.9% 0.0%

Move number 10: Moshe Tissona to play 31

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 128, Jon Royset 126
Position ID: bD3BwQDBcx4HAA Match ID: MIElA4AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 8/5 6/5

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	13/10 6/5	+0.042
			52.3% 1.2% 0.0% - 47.7% 1.9% 0.0%
•	2	2	8/5 6/5	+0.042 ( -0.000)
			52.3% 1.2% 0.0% - 47.7% 1.9% 0.0%
	3	2	6/5 6/3	+0.038 ( -0.004)
			52.2% 1.2% 0.1% - 47.8% 1.8% 0.0%
	4	2	6/2	+0.035 ( -0.008)
			52.1% 1.2% 0.1% - 47.9% 1.9% 0.0%
	5	2	10/6	+0.029 ( -0.013)
			51.9% 1.2% 0.1% - 48.1% 2.0% 0.0%

Move number 11: Jon Royset to play 62

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 124, Jon Royset 126
Position ID: YWceBwBsPcHBAA Match ID: cAkrA4AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves 13/5

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	13/7 6/4	+0.063
			51.4% 1.5% 0.0% - 48.6% 0.8% 0.0%
	2	2	13/11 8/2	+0.061 ( -0.002)
			51.3% 1.7% 0.0% - 48.7% 0.9% 0.0%
•	3	2	13/5	+0.060 ( -0.003)
			51.2% 1.7% 0.0% - 48.8% 0.8% 0.0%
	4	2	13/7 4/2	+0.049 ( -0.014)
			51.0% 1.5% 0.0% - 49.0% 0.8% 0.0%
	5	2	13/7 3/1	+0.046 ( -0.017)
			50.9% 1.4% 0.0% - 49.1% 0.9% 0.0%

Move number 12: Moshe Tissona to play 55

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 124, Jon Royset 118
Position ID: bHuCwQBhZx4HAA Match ID: MIE2A4AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 13/8(3) 10/5

Alert: lucky roll! ( +0.499)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	13/3 13/8(2)	+0.580
			69.0% 0.6% 0.0% - 31.0% 0.3% 0.0%
•	2	2	13/8(3) 10/5	+0.579 ( -0.001)
			69.0% 0.6% 0.0% - 31.0% 0.3% 0.0%
	3	2	13/8(3) 6/1	+0.513 ( -0.067)
			67.3% 0.6% 0.0% - 32.7% 0.3% 0.0%
	4	2	13/3 10/5 6/1	+0.373 ( -0.207)
			63.3% 1.6% 0.0% - 36.7% 1.5% 0.0%
	5	2	13/8 10/5(2) 6/1	+0.356 ( -0.224)
			62.7% 1.7% 0.0% - 37.3% 1.6% 0.0%

Move number 13: Jon Royset to play 64

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 104, Jon Royset 118
Position ID: 4c7nAABse4LBAA Match ID: cAkzA4AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves 13/9 13/7

Ply

Move

Equity

•

13/9 13/7

-0.437

35.5%	0.2%	0.0%	-	64.5%	0.3%	0.0%	-0.291	-0.437
0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	-	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.002	0.006

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175191424

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed

13/9 8/2

-0.445 ( -0.008)

35.2%	0.2%	0.0%	-	64.8%	0.3%	0.0%	-0.296	-0.445
0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	-	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.002	0.006

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175191424

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed

18/14 18/12

-0.449 ( -0.013)

35.0%	0.0%	0.0%	-	65.0%	0.0%	0.0%	-0.301	-0.449
0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	-	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.000	0.004

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175191424

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed

13/7 8/4

-0.450 ( -0.014)

35.3%	0.2%	0.0%	-	64.7%	0.4%	0.0%	-0.296	-0.450
0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	-	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.002	0.006

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175191424

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed

13/3

-0.452 ( -0.015)

35.1%	0.1%	0.0%	-	64.9%	0.3%	0.0%	-0.300	-0.452
0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	-	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.002	0.005

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175191424

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed

Move number 14: Moshe Tissona to play 52

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 104, Jon Royset 108
Position ID: bHsVwADhzucAAA Match ID: MIEqA4AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 10/5 8/6

Ply

Move

Equity

•

10/5 8/6

+0.397

63.2%	0.3%	0.0%	-	36.8%	0.2%	0.0%	+0.264	+0.345
0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	-	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.001	0.004

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1174991744

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

8/6 8/3

+0.391 ( -0.006)

63.0%	0.4%	0.0%	-	37.0%	0.3%	0.0%	+0.261	+0.339
0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	-	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.001	0.004

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1174991744

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

10/3

+0.387 ( -0.010)

62.9%	0.3%	0.0%	-	37.1%	0.2%	0.0%	+0.259	+0.335
0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	-	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.001	0.004

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1174991744

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

8/3 6/4

+0.382 ( -0.015)

62.9%	0.3%	0.0%	-	37.1%	0.2%	0.0%	+0.258	+0.330
0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	-	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%	0.001	0.004

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1174991744

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

8/3 5/3

+0.379 ( -0.018)

62.6%	0.4%	0.0%	-	37.4%	0.3%	0.0%	+0.254	+0.327
0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	-	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.001	0.004

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1174991744

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Move number 15: Jon Royset to play 42

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 97, Jon Royset 108
Position ID: 4T3PAABsexXAAA Match ID: cAkqA4AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves 9/5 6/4

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	9/5 8/6	-0.478
			33.6% 0.5% 0.0% - 66.4% 0.8% 0.0%
	2	2	8/4 7/5	-0.483 ( -0.005)
			33.4% 0.5% 0.0% - 66.6% 0.8% 0.0%
	3	2	9/5 7/5	-0.487 ( -0.008)
			33.3% 0.5% 0.0% - 66.7% 0.8% 0.0%
•	4	2	9/5 6/4	-0.493 ( -0.014)
			33.1% 0.5% 0.0% - 66.9% 0.7% 0.0%
	5	2	9/7 8/4	-0.494 ( -0.016)
			33.1% 0.5% 0.0% - 66.9% 0.7% 0.0%

Move number 16: Moshe Tissona to play 11

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 97, Jon Royset 102
Position ID: 7O4KwADhPc8AAA Match ID: MIEkA4AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 6/4 5/4(2)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	6/4 5/4(2)	+0.321
			61.8% 0.3% 0.0% - 38.2% 0.1% 0.0%
	2	2	6/4(2)	+0.312 ( -0.010)
			61.4% 0.3% 0.0% - 38.6% 0.1% 0.0%
	3	2	6/3 5/4	+0.305 ( -0.016)
			61.1% 0.4% 0.0% - 38.9% 0.1% 0.0%
	4	2	10/9(2) 5/4(2)	+0.293 ( -0.028)
			60.8% 0.2% 0.0% - 39.2% 0.1% 0.0%
	5	2	5/3(2)	+0.293 ( -0.029)
			60.8% 0.3% 0.0% - 39.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Move number 17: Jon Royset to play 61

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 93, Jon Royset 102
Position ID: cTvPAADs7grAAA Match ID: cAknA4AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves 8/2 4/3

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	7/1 3/2	-0.381
			36.6% 0.3% 0.0% - 63.4% 0.4% 0.0%
	2	2	8/2 7/6	-0.388 ( -0.007)
			36.4% 0.4% 0.0% - 63.6% 0.5% 0.0%
	3	2	8/2 3/2	-0.391 ( -0.010)
			36.3% 0.2% 0.0% - 63.7% 0.3% 0.0%
	4	2	8/1	-0.392 ( -0.011)
			36.2% 0.2% 0.0% - 63.8% 0.4% 0.0%
	5	2	8/2 6/5	-0.395 ( -0.014)
			36.2% 0.2% 0.0% - 63.8% 0.3% 0.0%
•	6	2	8/2 4/3	-0.400 ( -0.019)
			36.0% 0.2% 0.0% - 64.0% 0.3% 0.0%

Move number 18: Moshe Tissona to play 43

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 93, Jon Royset 95
Position ID: ut0FwABxO88AAA Match ID: MAEuA4AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 8/5 8/4

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		+0.281	(Money: +0.281)
	64.0% 0.3% 0.0% - 36.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.400
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	(+0.600)
3.	Double, take	+0.281	(-0.119)
Proper cube action:		No double, take (16.6%)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	8/5 6/2	+0.377
			63.4% 0.3% 0.0% - 36.6% 0.1% 0.0%
	2	2	8/4 6/3	+0.371 ( -0.007)
			63.3% 0.4% 0.0% - 36.7% 0.2% 0.0%
•	3	2	8/5 8/4	+0.365 ( -0.012)
			63.3% 0.3% 0.0% - 36.7% 0.2% 0.0%
	4	2	8/1	+0.332 ( -0.046)
			62.0% 0.4% 0.0% - 38.0% 0.1% 0.0%
	5	2	6/2 4/1	+0.320 ( -0.058)
			61.7% 0.4% 0.0% - 38.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Move number 19: Jon Royset to play 53

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 86, Jon Royset 95
Position ID: 8e7MAAC63QXAAA Match ID: cIkuA4AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves 6/1 5/2

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	7/4 6/1	-0.389
			36.4% 0.6% 0.0% - 63.6% 0.8% 0.0%
•	2	2	6/1 5/2	-0.403 ( -0.014)
			36.0% 0.6% 0.0% - 64.0% 0.6% 0.0%
	3	2	7/2 5/2	-0.410 ( -0.021)
			35.8% 0.5% 0.0% - 64.2% 0.5% 0.0%
	4	2	7/2 6/3	-0.416 ( -0.027)
			35.6% 0.4% 0.0% - 64.4% 0.4% 0.0%
	5	2	7/2 4/1	-0.421 ( -0.032)
			35.4% 0.5% 0.0% - 64.6% 0.8% 0.0%

Move number 20: Moshe Tissona to play 33

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 86, Jon Royset 87
Position ID: 7bYFwADx7swAAA Match ID: MIEtA4AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 8/2(2)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	6/3(2) 5/2 4/1	+0.705
			71.7% 0.7% 0.0% - 28.3% 0.3% 0.0%
	2	2	6/3 5/2(2) 4/1	+0.664 ( -0.041)
			70.8% 0.6% 0.0% - 29.2% 0.3% 0.0%
•	3	2	8/2(2)	+0.639 ( -0.066)
			70.6% 0.5% 0.0% - 29.4% 0.2% 0.0%
	4	2	6/3(3) 4/1	+0.630 ( -0.075)
			70.0% 0.5% 0.0% - 30.0% 0.1% 0.0%
	5	2	8/2 8/5 4/1	+0.622 ( -0.082)
			70.2% 0.8% 0.0% - 29.8% 0.5% 0.0%

Annotation

Chuck Bower: Tissona's second straight dilemma: clear the 8-point, preparing for the race while keeping some pressure on Royset or go for maximum pressure by keeping the 8-point and rearranging the homeboard.

Move number 21: Jon Royset to play 22

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 74, Jon Royset 87
Position ID: zbvDAADttgXAAA Match ID: cAkpA4AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves 18/12 7/5

Ply

Move

Equity

18/16(2) 7/5 3/1

-0.696

27.9%	0.1%	0.0%	-	72.1%	0.0%	0.0%	-0.442	-0.696
0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	-	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	0.001	0.005

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1176076544

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

7/1 6/4

-0.704 ( -0.008)

27.7%	0.3%	0.0%	-	72.3%	0.7%	0.0%	-0.450	-0.704
0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	-	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%	0.002	0.005

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1176076544

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

7/1 3/1

-0.706 ( -0.011)

28.3%	0.5%	0.0%	-	71.7%	0.5%	0.0%	-0.433	-0.706
0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	-	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.001	0.006

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1176076544

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

7/5 6/4(2) 3/1

-0.715 ( -0.020)

27.4%	0.3%	0.0%	-	72.6%	0.6%	0.0%	-0.454	-0.715
0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	-	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.001	0.005

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1176076544

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

7/5 6/2 3/1

-0.730 ( -0.034)

27.2%	0.3%	0.0%	-	72.8%	0.7%	0.0%	-0.460	-0.730
0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	-	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	0.001	0.005

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1176076544

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

•

18/12 7/5

-0.743 ( -0.048)

27.2%	0.3%	0.0%	-	72.8%	0.9%	0.0%	-0.461	-0.743
0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	-	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.001	0.006

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1176076544

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Annotation

Bots: Snowie agreed the move played was best whereas GNU thought it a 0.048 mistake and prefered 7/5 6/4(2) 3/1.

Move number 22: Moshe Tissona doubles to 2

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 74, Jon Royset 79
Position ID: 7XYDgQDNu8MAAA Match ID: MBkgA4AAIAAA

• Jon Royset accepts

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		+0.451	(Money: +0.451)
	72.2% 1.0% 0.0% - 27.8% 0.4% 0.0%
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.713
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	(+0.287)
3.	No double	+0.620	(-0.093)
Proper cube action:		Double, take

Move number 23: Moshe Tissona to play 32

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 74, Jon Royset 79
Position ID: 7XYDgQDNu8MAAA Match ID: EYEpA4AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 6/3 5/3

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	10/7*/5	+0.237
			67.1% 3.8% 0.1% - 32.9% 5.8% 0.1%
•	2	2	6/3 5/3	+0.166 ( -0.072)
			65.0% 0.2% 0.0% - 35.0% 0.1% 0.0%
	3	2	5/3 4/1	+0.156 ( -0.081)
			64.6% 0.2% 0.0% - 35.4% 0.1% 0.0%
	4	2	6/1	+0.137 ( -0.100)
			63.8% 0.1% 0.0% - 36.2% 0.0% 0.0%
	5	2	6/3 4/2	+0.132 ( -0.105)
			64.2% 0.7% 0.0% - 35.8% 1.4% 0.1%

Annotation

Chuck Bower: Tissona's 3rd consecutive checker play dilemma. Let's see if we can do an over-the-board analysis. How about the race? Pipcount-wise if Tissona doesn't hit, next turn on average he will be 2 pips ahead with the roll -- effectively 65-71 after subtracting 4 pips for being on roll. A Kleinman Count says that's about 64% cgwc. If Tissona hits and lifts, Royset return hits only 11/36 or about 30.5%. Tissona doesn't win all of the misses, however, but probably more than 90% of them which is needed to break even compared to not hitting. Also note that if Tissona can roll an ace after Royset's hit (in the 8/11 hits that don't close Royset's homeboard), he will have life after death.

What about gammons? Hitting brings gammons into play for both sides. One could argue these offset, but do they? What about the cube? In general, races lead to moderately efficient cube opportunities. If Tissona hits, the vast majority of his losses occur when Royset hits very soon, and loses his market by quite a bit in many cases. Much of the time Royset won't be able to take advantage of his gammons because he will cube Tissona out. Tissona will receive almost all his gammon vig.

There is one final point worth making. If Tissona fails to hit, Royset isn't necessarily out of his hair. With large numbers Royset will take advantage of the closeness of the race and pound the pavement, but with small numbers he has the option of hanging around. Both SW3.2 and GNU-bg rollouts say failing to hit is a whopping 0.12-0.14 emg error.

Move number 24: Jon Royset to play 64

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 69, Jon Royset 79
Position ID: bW/DAADtdgOBAA Match ID: UQkzA4AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves 18/14 12/6

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	18/14 12/6	-0.069
			39.4% 0.0% 0.0% - 60.6% 0.0% 0.0%
	2	2	18/8	-0.075 ( -0.006)
			39.1% 0.0% 0.0% - 60.9% 0.0% 0.0%
	3	2	18/12 6/2	-0.159 ( -0.090)
			35.6% 0.0% 0.0% - 64.4% 0.0% 0.0%
	4	2	18/12 5/1	-0.166 ( -0.097)
			35.3% 0.0% 0.0% - 64.7% 0.0% 0.0%
	5	2	12/6 5/1	-0.218 ( -0.149)
			33.2% 1.8% 0.0% - 66.8% 1.1% 0.0%

Move number 25: Moshe Tissona to play 54

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 69, Jon Royset 69
Position ID: 7XYHCABtb8MAAA Match ID: EYEyA4AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 10/6 10/5

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	10/6 10/5	+0.174
			65.2% 0.0% 0.0% - 34.8% 0.0% 0.0%
	2	2	10/1	+0.082 ( -0.091)
			61.3% 0.0% 0.0% - 38.7% 0.0% 0.0%
	3	2	10/5 6/2	+0.065 ( -0.109)
			60.6% 0.0% 0.0% - 39.4% 0.0% 0.0%
	4	2	6/2 6/1	-0.083 ( -0.257)
			54.3% 0.0% 0.0% - 45.7% 0.0% 0.0%
	5	2	6/1 5/1	-0.108 ( -0.282)
			53.2% 0.0% 0.0% - 46.8% 0.0% 0.0%

Move number 26: Jon Royset to play 62

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 60, Jon Royset 69
Position ID: be8OAADtdgcIAA Match ID: UQkrA4AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves 14/6

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	14/6	-0.187
			34.6% 0.0% 0.0% - 65.4% 0.0% 0.0%
	2	2	14/8 6/4	-0.224 ( -0.036)
			33.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 67.0% 0.0% 0.0%
	3	2	14/8 3/1	-0.234 ( -0.046)
			32.6% 0.0% 0.0% - 67.4% 0.0% 0.0%
	4	2	14/8 5/3	-0.270 ( -0.083)
			31.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 69.0% 0.0% 0.0%
	5	2	14/8 4/2	-0.282 ( -0.095)
			30.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 69.5% 0.0% 0.0%

Move number 27: Moshe Tissona to play 32

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 60, Jon Royset 61
Position ID: 7XYPAABt7w4AAA Match ID: EYEpA4AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 3/off 2/off

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	3/off 2/off	+0.017
			58.3% 0.0% 0.0% - 41.7% 0.0% 0.0%
	2	2	5/off	-0.044 ( -0.061)
			55.7% 0.0% 0.0% - 44.3% 0.0% 0.0%
	3	2	6/3 2/off	-0.047 ( -0.064)
			55.6% 0.0% 0.0% - 44.4% 0.0% 0.0%
	4	2	4/1 2/off	-0.049 ( -0.066)
			55.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 44.5% 0.0% 0.0%
	5	2	4/2 3/off	-0.062 ( -0.079)
			54.9% 0.0% 0.0% - 45.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Move number 28: Jon Royset to play 41

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 55, Jon Royset 61
Position ID: 1bsDAEC73QMAAA Match ID: UQkmA4AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves 4/off 1/off

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	4/off 1/off	-0.223
			33.1% 0.0% 0.0% - 66.9% 0.0% 0.0%
	2	2	5/off	-0.263 ( -0.040)
			31.4% 0.0% 0.0% - 68.6% 0.0% 0.0%
	3	2	6/2 1/off	-0.270 ( -0.046)
			31.1% 0.0% 0.0% - 68.9% 0.0% 0.0%
	4	2	6/5 4/off	-0.273 ( -0.049)
			30.9% 0.0% 0.0% - 69.1% 0.0% 0.0%
	5	2	4/off 3/2	-0.301 ( -0.078)
			29.8% 0.0% 0.0% - 70.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Move number 29: Moshe Tissona to play 52

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 55, Jon Royset 56
Position ID: dt0DAED17gAAAA Match ID: EYEqA4AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 5/off 2/off

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	5/off 2/off	+0.162
			64.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 35.5% 0.0% 0.0%
	2	2	5/off 4/2	+0.130 ( -0.032)
			63.1% 0.0% 0.0% - 36.9% 0.0% 0.0%
	3	2	6/4 5/off	+0.095 ( -0.066)
			61.7% 0.0% 0.0% - 38.3% 0.0% 0.0%
	4	2	5/3 5/off	+0.095 ( -0.067)
			61.6% 0.0% 0.0% - 38.4% 0.0% 0.0%
	5	2	6/1 2/off	+0.080 ( -0.082)
			61.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 39.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Move number 30: Jon Royset to play 62

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 48, Jon Royset 56
Position ID: 6e0AAGDXPQAAAA Match ID: UQkrA4AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves 6/off 2/off

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	6/off 2/off	-0.146
			36.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 63.5% 0.0% 0.0%
	2	2	6/4 6/off	-0.201 ( -0.055)
			34.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 66.0% 0.0% 0.0%
	3	2	6/off 3/1	-0.208 ( -0.063)
			33.8% 0.0% 0.0% - 66.2% 0.0% 0.0%
	4	2	6/off 5/3	-0.273 ( -0.128)
			31.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 69.1% 0.0% 0.0%
	5	2	6/off 4/2	-0.325 ( -0.179)
			28.7% 0.0% 0.0% - 71.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Move number 31: Moshe Tissona to play 51

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 48, Jon Royset 48
Position ID: uu4AAJDeDgAAAA Match ID: EYEmA4AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 5/off 1/off

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	5/off 1/off	+0.014
			58.1% 0.0% 0.0% - 41.9% 0.0% 0.0%
	2	2	6/off	-0.020 ( -0.033)
			56.7% 0.0% 0.0% - 43.3% 0.0% 0.0%
	3	2	5/off 4/3	-0.040 ( -0.054)
			55.8% 0.0% 0.0% - 44.2% 0.0% 0.0%
	4	2	5/off 3/2	-0.065 ( -0.079)
			54.7% 0.0% 0.0% - 45.3% 0.0% 0.0%
	5	2	6/1 4/3	-0.116 ( -0.130)
			52.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 47.5% 0.0% 0.0%

Move number 32: Jon Royset to play 43

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 42, Jon Royset 48
Position ID: 9DoAAOi6AwAAAA Match ID: UQkuA4AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves 4/off 3/off

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	4/off 3/off	-0.096
			38.7% 0.0% 0.0% - 61.3% 0.0% 0.0%
	2	2	5/1 3/off	-0.125 ( -0.029)
			37.4% 0.0% 0.0% - 62.6% 0.0% 0.0%
	3	2	6/2 3/off	-0.137 ( -0.041)
			36.9% 0.0% 0.0% - 63.1% 0.0% 0.0%
	4	2	6/3 4/off	-0.229 ( -0.133)
			32.9% 0.0% 0.0% - 67.1% 0.0% 0.0%
	5	2	5/2 4/off	-0.241 ( -0.145)
			32.4% 0.0% 0.0% - 67.6% 0.0% 0.0%

Move number 33: Moshe Tissona to play 32

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 42, Jon Royset 41
Position ID: mjsAANDrAAAAAA Match ID: EYEpA4AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 4/2 3/off

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	4/2 3/off	-0.139
			51.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 48.5% 0.0% 0.0%
	2	2	4/2 4/1	-0.189 ( -0.050)
			49.4% 0.0% 0.0% - 50.6% 0.0% 0.0%
	3	2	6/3 4/2	-0.194 ( -0.055)
			49.3% 0.0% 0.0% - 50.7% 0.0% 0.0%
	4	2	6/4 3/off	-0.204 ( -0.065)
			48.9% 0.0% 0.0% - 51.1% 0.0% 0.0%
	5	2	5/off	-0.206 ( -0.067)
			48.8% 0.0% 0.0% - 51.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Move number 34: Jon Royset to play 61

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 37, Jon Royset 41
Position ID: ch0AADR3AAAAAA Match ID: UQknA4AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves 6/off 5/4

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	6/off 5/4	+0.064
			45.7% 0.0% 0.0% - 54.3% 0.0% 0.0%
	2	2	6/off 2/1	-0.021 ( -0.085)
			42.2% 0.0% 0.0% - 57.8% 0.0% 0.0%
	3	2	6/off 3/2	-0.022 ( -0.086)
			42.1% 0.0% 0.0% - 57.9% 0.0% 0.0%
	4	2	6/5 6/off	-0.027 ( -0.091)
			42.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 58.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Move number 35: Moshe Tissona to play 33

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 37, Jon Royset 34
Position ID: WhsAAOQ6AAAAAA Match ID: EYEtA4AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 6/off(2)

Alert: lucky roll! ( +0.381)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	6/off(2)	+0.326
			70.3% 0.0% 0.0% - 29.7% 0.0% 0.0%
	2	2	6/off 6/3 4/1	+0.295 ( -0.031)
			68.9% 0.0% 0.0% - 31.1% 0.0% 0.0%
	3	2	6/off 6/3 5/2	+0.183 ( -0.144)
			64.3% 0.0% 0.0% - 35.7% 0.0% 0.0%
	4	2	6/off 6/3(2)	+0.176 ( -0.151)
			64.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 36.0% 0.0% 0.0%
	5	2	6/off 4/1(2)	+0.166 ( -0.161)
			63.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 36.5% 0.0% 0.0%

Move number 36: Jon Royset to play 32

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 25, Jon Royset 34
Position ID: cgUAAK0NAAAAAA Match ID: UYkpA4AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves 3/off 2/off

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	3/off 2/off	-0.513
			22.4% 0.0% 0.0% - 77.6% 0.0% 0.0%
	2	2	6/4 3/off	-0.562 ( -0.049)
			19.8% 0.0% 0.0% - 80.2% 0.0% 0.0%
	3	2	5/off	-0.602 ( -0.089)
			18.2% 0.0% 0.0% - 81.8% 0.0% 0.0%
	4	2	6/3 2/off	-0.611 ( -0.098)
			17.8% 0.0% 0.0% - 82.2% 0.0% 0.0%
	5	2	3/1 3/off	-0.621 ( -0.108)
			17.6% 0.0% 0.0% - 82.4% 0.0% 0.0%

Move number 37: Moshe Tissona to play 45

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 25, Jon Royset 29
Position ID: 1AYAALkCAAAAAA Match ID: EQE2A4AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 5/off 4/off

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	5/off 4/off	+0.644
			83.2% 0.0% 0.0% - 16.8% 0.0% 0.0%
	2	2	6/1 4/off	+0.573 ( -0.071)
			80.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 20.0% 0.0% 0.0%
	3	2	6/2 5/off	+0.507 ( -0.137)
			77.1% 0.0% 0.0% - 22.9% 0.0% 0.0%
	4	0	6/1 5/1	+0.276 ( -0.368)
			67.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 32.5% 0.0% 0.0%

Move number 38: Jon Royset to play 52

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 16, Jon Royset 29
Position ID: MgEAgNoAAAAAAA Match ID: UYkqA4AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves 6/4 5/off

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	6/4 5/off	-0.755
			11.9% 0.0% 0.0% - 88.1% 0.0% 0.0%
	2	2	6/4 6/1	-0.814 ( -0.059)
			9.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 91.0% 0.0% 0.0%
	3	2	5/off 4/2	-0.815 ( -0.061)
			8.9% 0.0% 0.0% - 91.1% 0.0% 0.0%
	4	2	5/3 5/off	-0.816 ( -0.062)
			9.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 91.0% 0.0% 0.0%
	5	2	5/off 3/1	-0.819 ( -0.065)
			8.7% 0.0% 0.0% - 91.3% 0.0% 0.0%

Move number 39: Moshe Tissona to play 63

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 16, Jon Royset 22
Position ID: tAIAgEwAAAAAAA Match ID: EQEvA4AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 6/off 4/1

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	6/off 4/1	+0.786
			89.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 10.5% 0.0% 0.0%
	2	2	6/3 4/off	+0.746 ( -0.040)
			87.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 12.5% 0.0% 0.0%

Move number 40: Jon Royset to play 32

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 7, Jon Royset 22
Position ID: JQAAQCsAAAAAAA Match ID: UYkpA4AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves 6/4 3/off

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	6/4 3/off	-0.903
			4.8% 0.0% 0.0% - 95.2% 0.0% 0.0%
	2	2	4/2 3/off	-0.951 ( -0.047)
			2.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 97.5% 0.0% 0.0%
	3	2	5/off	-0.951 ( -0.047)
			2.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 97.5% 0.0% 0.0%
	4	2	6/3 5/3	-0.999 ( -0.095)
			0.1% 0.0% 0.0% - 99.9% 0.0% 0.0%
	5	2	5/3 4/1	-0.999 ( -0.095)
			0.1% 0.0% 0.0% - 99.9% 0.0% 0.0%

Annotation

Chuck Bower: Tissona's four checkers and 16 pips (plus wastage) should be easy to acquire in three rolls. Royset thus needs to get off in his next two. With five checkers remaining, that means he'll need a playable set in one of his next two rolls. 6/4 sets up for removing three or more with 6-6, 5-5, and 4-4 next turn.

Move number 41: Moshe Tissona to play 61

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 7, Jon Royset 17
Position ID: uAAAoAQAAAAAAA Match ID: EQEnA4AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 4/off 1/off

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	4/off	+0.889
			94.4% 0.0% 0.0% - 5.6% 0.0% 0.0%
	2	2	4/off 2/1	+0.889 ( +0.000)
			94.4% 0.0% 0.0% - 5.6% 0.0% 0.0%
•	??	2	4/off 1/off	+0.889 ( +0.000)
			94.4% 0.0% 0.0% - 5.6% 0.0% 0.0%

Game statistics for game 10
Player	Moshe Tissona	Jon Royset
Checker play statistics
Total moves	20	20
Unforced moves	20	20
Moves marked very good	0	0
Moves marked good	0	0
Moves marked interesting	0	0
Moves unmarked	17	19
Moves marked doubtful	3	1
Moves marked bad	0	0
Moves marked very bad	0	0
Error rate (total)	-0.216 ( -0.998%)	-0.122 ( -0.422%)
Error rate (pr. move)	-0.011 ( -0.050% )	-0.006 ( -0.021%)
Chequer play rating	Advanced	Expert
Luck statistics
Rolls marked very lucky	0	0
Rolls marked lucky	3	0
Rolls unmarked	17	20
Rolls marked unlucky	0	0
Rolls marked very unlucky	0	0
Luck rate (total)	+0.304 ( +0.671%)	-1.051 ( -5.771%)
Luck rate (pr. move)	+0.015 ( +0.034%)	-0.053 ( -0.289%)
Luck rating	None	Better luck next time
Cube statistics
Total cube decisions	11	20
Close or actual cube decisions	5	4
Doubles	1	0
Takes	0	1
Passes	0	0
Missed doubles around DP	0	0
Missed doubles around TG	0	0
Wrong doubles around DP	0	0
Wrong doubles around TG	0	0
Wrong takes	0	0
Wrong passes	0	0
Error rate (total)	0	0
Error rate (per cube decision)	0	0
Cube decision rating	Supernatural	Supernatural
Overall rating
Error rate (total)	-0.216 ( -0.998%)	-0.122 ( -0.422%)
Error rate (per decision)	-0.009 ( -0.040% )	-0.005 ( -0.018%)
Equivalent Snowie error rate	-5.4	-3.1
Overall rating	Advanced	Expert

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Output generated Sat Aug 09 03:09:48 2003 by GNU Backgammon 0.14-devel 1.1238 030804 (HTML Export version 1.126)