Game number 11

Moshe Tissona (10 pts) vs. Jon Royset (4 pts) (Match to 25)

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Match Information

Moshe Tissona's rating: 0 (Exp 0)
Jon Royset's rating: 0 (Exp 0)
Date: July 13, 2003
Event: World Championship 2003
Round: Final
Place: Monte Carlo
Annotator: Casper van der Tak, Chuck Bower, Alex Zamanian, Tom Suzanski, Christian Toth, and GNU 0.14

Move number 1: Jon Royset to play 21

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|5O ' ' '3X '5X ' ' ' '2O|
|   |
|      |  21  |
|5X ' ' '3O '|   |5O ' ' ' '2X|
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 167, Jon Royset 167
Position ID: 4HPwATDgc/ABMA Match ID: cAglA6AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves 13/11 6/5

# Ply Move Equity
• 1 2 13/11 6/5 +0.101
  50.9% 14.7% 0.6% - 49.1% 14.4% 0.8%  
  2 2 24/23 13/11 +0.098 ( -0.004)
  50.6% 13.9% 0.6% - 49.4% 13.2% 0.4%  
  3 2 13/10 +0.067 ( -0.034)
  49.7% 14.1% 0.6% - 50.3% 13.8% 0.5%  
  4 2 24/21 +0.064 ( -0.038)
  50.1% 12.8% 0.6% - 49.9% 13.3% 0.4%  
  5 2 24/23 24/22 +0.036 ( -0.066)
  49.3% 12.5% 0.5% - 50.7% 13.4% 0.4%  

Move number 2: Moshe Tissona to play 61

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+
|4O ' ' '3X '5X ' ' ' '2O|
|   |
|  61  |      |
|5X1O ' '3O '|   |4O1O ' ' '2X|
+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 167, Jon Royset 164
Position ID: 0HPkATDgc/ABMA Match ID: MAEnA6AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 13/7 8/7

# Ply Move Equity
• 1 2 13/7 8/7 -0.201
  47.1% 13.0% 0.5% - 52.9% 16.0% 0.7%  
  2 2 24/23 13/7 -0.330 ( -0.129)
  44.5% 12.4% 0.6% - 55.5% 18.5% 0.9%  
  3 2 24/23 24/18 -0.367 ( -0.165)
  44.0% 10.6% 0.5% - 56.0% 18.8% 0.7%  
  4 2 24/18 6/5 -0.397 ( -0.196)
  44.2% 11.2% 0.6% - 55.8% 20.7% 1.1%  
  5 2 13/7 6/5 -0.409 ( -0.207)
  43.4% 12.0% 0.6% - 56.6% 19.3% 1.5%  

Move number 3: Jon Royset to play 61

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|4O ' ' '2X2X5X ' ' ' '2O|
|   |
|      |  61  |
|4X1O ' '3O '|   |4O1O ' ' '2X|
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 160, Jon Royset 164
Position ID: 4NvgATDQc+QBMA Match ID: cAknA6AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves 11/5 6/5

 

# Ply Move Equity
  1 2 24/23 11/5 +0.243
  54.0% 16.6% 0.6% - 46.0% 12.4% 0.4%  
• 2 2 11/5 6/5 +0.238 ( -0.005)
  53.6% 17.3% 0.7% - 46.4% 12.8% 0.5%  
  3 2 13/7 6/5 +0.220 ( -0.024)
  53.4% 16.8% 0.7% - 46.6% 13.6% 0.7%  
  4 2 11/5 8/7 +0.120 ( -0.123)
  50.6% 16.2% 0.7% - 49.4% 14.1% 0.7%  
  5 2 13/7 8/7 +0.119 ( -0.124)
  51.5% 14.9% 0.5% - 48.5% 14.9% 0.8%  

Move number 4: Moshe Tissona to play 53

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+
|4O ' ' '2X2X5X ' ' ' '2O|
|   |
|  53  |      |
|4X ' ' '3O '|   |3O3O ' ' '2X|
+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 160, Jon Royset 157
Position ID: cOfgATDg2+ABMA Match ID: MIEuA6AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 24/16

# Ply Move Equity
• 1 2 24/16 -0.269
  46.5% 11.2% 0.4% - 53.5% 17.8% 0.6%  
  2 2 24/21 13/8 -0.292 ( -0.023)
  45.7% 12.4% 0.6% - 54.3% 17.8% 0.6%  
  3 2 8/3 6/3 -0.318 ( -0.048)
  44.6% 13.5% 0.5% - 55.4% 18.2% 1.0%  
  4 2 13/10 13/8 -0.376 ( -0.107)
  43.3% 12.3% 0.5% - 56.7% 17.9% 1.0%  
  5 2 13/8 6/3 -0.415 ( -0.146)
  42.4% 11.6% 0.4% - 57.6% 18.5% 1.0%  

Annotation
Chuck Bower: Either 24/21 play is fine; just don't try and build a mediocre board with this roll. Abandoning the Siberian outpost is critical early in the game once your opponent has started to build a prime against it.

Move number 5: Jon Royset to play 61

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|4O ' ' '2X2X5X ' ' ' '2O|
|   |
|      |  61  |
|4X ' '1X3O '|   |3O3O ' ' '1X|
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 152, Jon Royset 157
Position ID: 4NvgESBw5+ABMA Match ID: cAknA6AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves 13/7 8/7

 

# Ply Move Equity
• 1 2 13/7 8/7 +0.289
  54.6% 17.7% 0.4% - 45.4% 10.8% 0.4%  
  2 2 13/6 +0.076 ( -0.213)
  48.5% 16.0% 0.4% - 51.5% 11.7% 0.4%  
  3 2 24/23 13/7 +0.037 ( -0.252)
  47.9% 15.2% 0.4% - 52.1% 12.7% 0.5%  
  4 2 8/1* +0.014 ( -0.275)
  46.8% 16.5% 0.4% - 53.2% 13.5% 0.6%  
  5 0 13/7 6/5 -0.070 ( -0.360)
  45.3% 13.8% 0.3% - 54.7% 13.5% 0.7%  

Move number 6: Moshe Tissona to play 31

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+
|3O ' ' '2X2X5X ' ' ' '2O|
|   |
|  31  |      |
|4X ' '1X2O2O|   |3O3O ' ' '1X|
+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 152, Jon Royset 150
Position ID: cLfBATDg2+ARIA Match ID: MIElA6AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 8/5 6/5

# Ply Move Equity
• 1 2 8/5 6/5 -0.362
  45.0% 13.0% 0.6% - 55.0% 21.7% 0.9%  
  2 2 24/23 16/13 -0.457 ( -0.095)
  42.3% 9.4% 0.4% - 57.7% 20.2% 0.4%  
  3 2 24/21 16/15 -0.517 ( -0.154)
  41.6% 9.8% 0.5% - 58.4% 24.4% 0.7%  
  4 2 16/13 6/5 -0.522 ( -0.160)
  40.9% 9.6% 0.3% - 59.1% 20.9% 0.7%  
  5 2 13/10 6/5 -0.554 ( -0.192)
  41.6% 10.5% 0.4% - 58.4% 25.5% 1.6%  

Annotation
Chuck Bower: Unlike last turn, making the diamond point far outweighs any tactical shuffling of checkers on the far side.

Move number 7: Jon Royset to play 33

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|3O ' ' '1X2X4X2X ' ' '2O|
|   |
|      |  33  |
|4X ' '1X2O2O|   |3O3O ' ' '1X|
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 148, Jon Royset 150
Position ID: sLfgESBwt8EBMA Match ID: cIktA6AAIAAA

• Jon Royset moves 24/21(2) 13/7

 

# Ply Move Equity
  1 2 24/21(2) 7/4(2) +0.728
  62.2% 23.0% 0.7% - 37.8% 6.8% 0.2%  
• 2 2 24/21(2) 13/7 +0.691 ( -0.037)
  62.7% 20.0% 0.5% - 37.3% 6.8% 0.1%  
  3 2 24/21(2) 8/5(2) +0.346 ( -0.382)
  55.4% 17.0% 0.5% - 44.6% 8.1% 0.2%  
  4 2 7/1*(2) +0.342 ( -0.386)
  51.1% 27.6% 0.8% - 48.9% 13.8% 0.6%  
  5 2 24/21(2) 13/10(2) +0.304 ( -0.424)
  55.0% 15.8% 0.6% - 45.0% 9.2% 0.2%  

Annotation
Chuck Bower: I'm sure I (and many others) would have made Royset's play. Possibly GNU's choice is consistent with the "attack one, prime two" axiom. Probably more important is that Tissona has two other blots to clean up and when he fails to do so, the stronger homeboard will be a big plus.

Move number 8: Moshe Tissona to play 61

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+
|2O ' ' '1X2X4X2X2O ' ' '|
|   |
|  61  |      |
|4X ' '1X2O3O|   |3O3O ' ' '1X|
+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 148, Jon Royset 138
Position ID: cHeDAQawt+ARIA Match ID: MAEnA6AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 16/10 8/7

Alert: bad move ( -0.111)

# Ply Move Equity
  1 R 13/7 6/5 -0.846
 
34.5% 7.0% 0.3%- 65.5% 24.1% 0.8% -0.525 -0.846
0.3% 0.2% 0.1%- 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.008 0.021
  
  Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.  
  648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175351936  
  Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]  
  Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed  
  2 R 13/7 8/7 -0.860 ( -0.014)
 
33.4% 6.1% 0.3%- 66.6% 22.1% 0.5% -0.527 -0.860
0.3% 0.2% 0.0%- 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.008 0.021
  
  Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.  
  648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175351936  
  Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]  
  Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed  
• 3 R 16/10 8/7 -0.956 ( -0.111)
 
31.5% 6.2% 0.3%- 68.5% 21.7% 0.4% -0.559 -0.956
0.3% 0.2% 0.1%- 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.008 0.022
  
  Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.  
  648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175351936  
  Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]  
  Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed  
  4 2 16/15 13/7 -0.910 ( -0.065)
  33.7% 7.4% 0.1% - 66.3% 23.0% 0.9%  
  5 2 24/23 13/7 -0.911 ( -0.065)
  35.3% 7.6% 0.2% - 64.7% 26.4% 0.8%  

Move number 9: Jon Royset doubles to 2

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+
|2O '1X ' '3X4X2X2O ' ' '|
|   |
|      | [2]  |
|4X ' ' '2O3O|   |3O3O ' ' '1X|
+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 141, Jon Royset 138
Position ID: sHfEAyBwd4MBBg Match ID: cBEgA6AAIAAA

• Moshe Tissona rejects

Alert: wrong pass ( -0.067)! [doubtful]

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity +0.520 (Money: +0.501)
Cubeful equities:
1.Double, take +0.933 
2.Double, pass +1.000 (+0.067)
3.No double +0.811 (-0.122)
Proper cube action:Double, take
Rollout details
 WinW gW bg LoseL gL bgCubelessCubeful
Centered 1-cube 67.5% 21.1% 0.6%- 32.5% 6.4% 0.3% +0.520 +0.811
Standard error 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%- 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.006 0.016
Player Moshe Tissona owns 2-cube 68.3% 20.9% 0.6%- 31.7% 5.9% 0.3% +1.111 +0.933
Standard error 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%- 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.016 0.020
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 162534 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed

 


Annotation
Chuck Bower: Another overly conservative pass, Tissona's second (and fourth overall) in the first 11 games of the match. Woolsey's Doubling Rule is receiving strong support in this one.

Jon Royset wins 1 point

Game statistics for game 11
PlayerMoshe TissonaJon Royset
Checker play statistics
Total moves 4 4
Unforced moves 4 4
Moves marked very good 0 0
Moves marked good 0 0
Moves marked interesting 0 0
Moves unmarked 3 3
Moves marked doubtful 0 1
Moves marked bad 1 0
Moves marked very bad 0 0
Error rate (total) -0.111 ( -0.358%) -0.042 ( -0.137%)
Error rate (pr. move) -0.028 ( -0.090% ) -0.011 ( -0.034%)
Chequer play rating Beginner Advanced
Luck statistics
Rolls marked very lucky 0 0
Rolls marked lucky 0 0
Rolls unmarked 4 4
Rolls marked unlucky 0 0
Rolls marked very unlucky 0 0
Luck rate (total) -0.455 ( -1.470%) +0.193 ( +0.623%)
Luck rate (pr. move) -0.114 ( -0.367%) +0.048 ( +0.156%)
Luck rating "Haaa-haaa" Good dice, man!
Cube statistics
Total cube decisions 5 4
Close or actual cube decisions 1 4
Doubles 0 1
Takes 0 0
Passes 1 0
Missed doubles around DP 0 0
Missed doubles around TG 0 0
Wrong doubles around DP 0 0
Wrong doubles around TG 0 0
Wrong takes 0 0
Wrong passes 1 (-0.067 ( -0.218%)) 0
Error rate (total) -0.067 ( -0.218%) 0
Error rate (per cube decision) -0.067 ( -0.218% ) 0
Cube decision rating Awful! Supernatural
Overall rating
Error rate (total) -0.178 ( -0.576%) -0.042 ( -0.137%)
Error rate (per decision) -0.036 ( -0.115% ) -0.005 ( -0.017%)
Equivalent Snowie error rate -22.3 -5.3
Overall rating Awful! Expert
Actual result 46.95% 53.05%
Luck adjusted result 49.05% 50.95%
Relative FIBS rating -3.31 3.31

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