Game number 12

Moshe Tissona (10 pts) vs. Jon Royset (5 pts) (Match to 25)

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Match Information

Moshe Tissona's rating: 0 (Exp 0)
Jon Royset's rating: 0 (Exp 0)
Date: July 13, 2003
Event: World Championship 2003
Round: Final
Place: Monte Carlo
Annotator: Casper van der Tak, Chuck Bower, Alex Zamanian, Tom Suzanski, Christian Toth, and GNU 0.14

Move number 1: Moshe Tissona to play 52

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 167, Jon Royset 167
Position ID: 4HPwATDgc/ABMA Match ID: MIAqA6AAKAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 13/11 13/8

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	24/22 13/8	-0.032
			51.0% 13.6% 0.5% - 49.0% 12.9% 0.4%
•	2	2	13/11 13/8	-0.036 ( -0.004)
			50.7% 15.1% 0.7% - 49.3% 13.8% 0.5%
	3	2	13/8 6/4	-0.085 ( -0.053)
			49.6% 13.9% 0.5% - 50.4% 13.9% 0.6%
	4	2	13/6	-0.119 ( -0.087)
			48.7% 13.8% 0.6% - 51.3% 14.5% 0.5%
	5	2	13/11 8/3	-0.202 ( -0.170)
			47.0% 13.8% 0.6% - 53.0% 16.1% 0.9%

Move number 2: Jon Royset to play 42

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 160, Jon Royset 167
Position ID: 4PPIATDgc/ABMA Match ID: cAkqA6AAKAAA

• Jon Royset moves 8/4 6/4

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	8/4 6/4	+0.126
			51.6% 15.8% 0.7% - 48.4% 14.5% 0.7%
	2	2	13/11 13/9	-0.025 ( -0.151)
			47.8% 14.3% 0.6% - 52.2% 16.0% 0.9%
	3	2	24/20 13/11	-0.044 ( -0.170)
			48.0% 12.7% 0.7% - 52.0% 16.4% 0.7%
	4	2	24/22 13/9	-0.062 ( -0.188)
			47.4% 13.1% 0.6% - 52.6% 16.7% 0.7%
	5	2	13/9 6/4	-0.080 ( -0.206)
			46.9% 13.2% 0.5% - 53.1% 17.1% 1.2%

Move number 3: Moshe Tissona to play 52

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 160, Jon Royset 161
Position ID: mGfwATDg88gBMA Match ID: MIEqA6AAKAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 13/11 8/3

Alert: bad move ( -0.094)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	24/22 11/6	-0.296
			45.0% 12.5% 0.6% - 55.0% 17.7% 0.6%
	2	2	24/22 13/8	-0.301 ( -0.005)
			45.0% 13.0% 0.7% - 55.0% 18.3% 0.7%
	3	2	13/8 11/9	-0.390 ( -0.094)
			42.7% 13.0% 0.6% - 57.3% 18.3% 1.0%
•	4	2	13/11 8/3	-0.390 ( -0.094)
			43.2% 13.1% 0.7% - 56.8% 19.6% 1.2%
	5	2	13/6	-0.405 ( -0.109)
			42.5% 12.8% 0.7% - 57.5% 18.8% 1.0%

Annotation

Chuck Bower: 24/22 is thematic, going for an advanced anchor when the opponent threatens to prime you in.

Move number 4: Jon Royset to play 52

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 153, Jon Royset 161
Position ID: xOeYATCYZ/ABMA Match ID: cIkqA6AAKAAA

• Jon Royset moves 24/22* 13/8

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	24/22* 13/8	+0.659
			62.0% 22.5% 1.7% - 38.0% 9.6% 0.3%
	2	2	13/11 13/8	+0.247 ( -0.412)
			54.4% 18.4% 1.0% - 45.6% 14.7% 0.9%
	3	0	24/22* 8/3	+0.262 ( -0.398)
			53.6% 19.8% 1.9% - 46.4% 14.3% 0.8%
	4	0	13/8 6/4	+0.201 ( -0.458)
			53.2% 17.4% 1.0% - 46.8% 14.5% 0.7%
	5	0	13/6	+0.167 ( -0.492)
			52.2% 17.3% 1.1% - 47.8% 14.9% 0.8%

Move number 5: Moshe Tissona to play 21

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 175, Jon Royset 154
Position ID: mOfgASTgc8wAWA Match ID: MAElA6AAKAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves bar/23 24/23

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/23 24/23	-0.523
			39.5% 10.1% 0.3% - 60.5% 19.5% 0.9%
	2	2	bar/22	-0.581 ( -0.058)
			39.1% 10.1% 0.4% - 60.9% 21.7% 1.5%
	3	2	bar/23 6/5	-0.638 ( -0.115)
			39.6% 9.8% 0.4% - 60.4% 25.2% 2.4%
	4	2	bar/24 6/4	-0.760 ( -0.237)
			37.7% 9.2% 0.3% - 62.3% 25.9% 2.7%
	5	2	bar/23 11/10	-0.799 ( -0.276)
			36.7% 9.2% 0.3% - 63.3% 25.7% 2.7%

Move number 6: Jon Royset to play 54

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 172, Jon Royset 154
Position ID: 4HPMACyY5+ABJA Match ID: cIkyA6AAKAAA

• Jon Royset moves 22/13

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		+0.309	(Money: +0.310)
	60.5% 19.5% 0.9% - 39.5% 10.1% 0.3%
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.523
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.477
3.	Double, take	+0.484	-0.039
Proper cube action:		No double, take (7.6%)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	22/13	+0.544
			62.1% 17.5% 0.8% - 37.9% 9.8% 0.2%
	2	2	24/15	+0.512 ( -0.033)
			60.9% 18.5% 1.1% - 39.1% 10.9% 0.3%
	3	2	22/18 13/8	+0.463 ( -0.081)
			59.2% 19.5% 1.2% - 40.8% 11.3% 0.3%
	4	2	13/9 6/1*	+0.463 ( -0.081)
			58.2% 21.0% 1.2% - 41.8% 11.9% 0.5%
	5	2	24/20 6/1*	+0.428 ( -0.116)
			58.5% 18.6% 1.0% - 41.5% 10.7% 0.3%

Move number 7: Moshe Tissona to play 32

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 172, Jon Royset 145
Position ID: mOfgAyDgc8wALA Match ID: MIEpA6AAKAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 24/22 23/20

Ply

Move

Equity

8/5 6/4

-0.686

37.6%	7.8%	0.5%	-	62.4%	24.5%	1.4%	-0.460	-0.686
0.4%	0.2%	0.1%	-	0.4%	0.3%	0.2%	0.010	0.024

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175011328

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed

•

24/22 23/20

-0.696 ( -0.010)

35.4%	7.4%	0.4%	-	64.6%	20.1%	0.9%	-0.457	-0.696
0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	-	0.3%	0.3%	0.1%	0.008	0.023

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175011328

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed

24/22 8/5

-0.731 ( -0.044)

35.3%	8.0%	0.4%	-	64.7%	21.0%	1.3%	-0.467	-0.731
0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	-	0.3%	0.3%	0.2%	0.009	0.024

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175011328

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed

6/1*

-0.761 ( -0.074)

34.2%	7.7%	0.2%	-	65.8%	20.5%	1.8%	-0.492	-0.761
0.5%	0.2%	0.0%	-	0.5%	0.5%	0.6%	0.022	0.049

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175011328

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed

13/11 13/10

-0.775 ( -0.088)

33.5%	7.6%	0.5%	-	66.5%	18.5%	1.1%	-0.477	-0.775
0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	-	0.3%	0.3%	0.1%	0.009	0.024

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175011328

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed

Annotation

Bots: Snowie 4 3-ply recommended 6/1* and GNU 0.14 recommended 13/10 13/11.

Move number 8: Jon Royset doubles to 2

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 167, Jon Royset 145
Position ID: 4HPMgBSY5+ADIA Match ID: cBEgA6AAKAAA

• Moshe Tissona accepts

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		+0.422	(Money: +0.422)
	63.8% 22.3% 1.0% - 36.2% 8.4% 0.2%
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.774
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	(+0.226)
3.	No double	+0.692	(-0.081)
Proper cube action:		Double, take

Move number 9: Jon Royset to play 54

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 167, Jon Royset 145
Position ID: 4HPMgBSY5+ADIA Match ID: QYkyA6AAKAAA

• Jon Royset moves 24/15

Ply

Move

Equity

•

24/15

+0.251

63.0%	13.9%	0.5%	-	37.0%	8.0%	0.3%	+0.346	+0.251
0.3%	0.3%	0.1%	-	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.008	0.012

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175372288

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed

13/4

+0.215 ( -0.036)

61.1%	15.5%	0.4%	-	38.9%	7.9%	0.3%	+0.324	+0.215
0.3%	0.3%	0.1%	-	0.3%	0.2%	0.0%	0.007	0.010

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175372288

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed

13/8 6/2*

+0.170 ( -0.081)

59.2%	16.1%	0.6%	-	40.8%	8.9%	0.4%	+0.286	+0.170
0.3%	0.3%	0.1%	-	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.008	0.011

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175372288

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed

24/20 13/8

+0.160 ( -0.091)

59.8%	13.4%	0.5%	-	40.2%	8.9%	0.3%	+0.267	+0.160
0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	-	0.3%	0.2%	0.0%	0.007	0.010

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175372288

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed

8/3* 6/2*

+0.142 ( -0.109)

57.4%	17.9%	1.0%	-	42.6%	10.8%	0.7%	+0.255	+0.142
0.3%	0.3%	0.1%	-	0.3%	0.3%	0.1%	0.010	0.013

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175372288

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed

Move number 10: Moshe Tissona to play 33

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 167, Jon Royset 136
Position ID: mOfgEwDgc8yAFA Match ID: AYEtA6AAKAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 23/20 13/10* 6/3(2)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	13/10*(2) 6/3(2)	+0.064
			48.5% 15.9% 0.5% - 51.5% 13.9% 0.6%
•	2	2	23/20 13/10* 6/3(2)	+0.059 ( -0.005)
			47.6% 14.2% 0.4% - 52.4% 11.7% 0.4%
	3	2	23/20 13/10*(2) 11/8	-0.005 ( -0.069)
			44.4% 10.2% 0.2% - 55.6% 8.5% 0.2%
	4	2	23/20 13/10*(2) 6/3	-0.023 ( -0.087)
			44.9% 11.3% 0.3% - 55.1% 11.7% 0.3%
	5	2	23/20 13/10* 8/5(2)	-0.027 ( -0.091)
			44.8% 13.1% 0.4% - 55.2% 12.9% 0.5%

Move number 11: Jon Royset to play 54

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 155, Jon Royset 146
Position ID: jHOagAmY5+ADQA Match ID: QYkyA6AAKAAA

• Jon Royset moves bar/21 8/3*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/21 8/3*	-0.033
			52.5% 14.1% 0.6% - 47.5% 15.2% 0.5%
	2	2	bar/21 13/8	-0.049 ( -0.016)
			53.1% 10.4% 0.3% - 46.9% 13.3% 0.3%
	3	2	bar/16	-0.103 ( -0.069)
			51.5% 8.9% 0.2% - 48.5% 13.3% 0.3%
	4	2	bar/21 6/1	-0.163 ( -0.130)
			49.1% 10.8% 0.3% - 50.8% 17.2% 0.4%
	5	2	bar/20 8/4	-0.178 ( -0.145)
			48.5% 10.2% 0.4% - 51.5% 16.3% 0.4%

Annotation

Chuck Bower: Three approaches are available, all starting with b/21. Attack as Royset chose, run into the opponent's outfield, or sit and wait. Two of the three are a dead heat according to SW3.2 rollouts, with 21/16 only an error by 0.03. Continuing into the outfield is often correct when leading the race, as here, but the alternate 5's make gains so they get preference.

Move number 12: Moshe Tissona to play 62

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 158, Jon Royset 137
Position ID: NM/gAwSMc5qAQQ Match ID: AQErA6AAKAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves bar/23 10/4*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/23 10/4*	+0.052
			48.0% 16.7% 0.7% - 52.0% 14.6% 0.6%
	2	2	bar/23 13/7	-0.099 ( -0.151)
			43.2% 13.3% 0.5% - 56.8% 16.2% 0.6%
	3	2	bar/23 11/5	-0.253 ( -0.305)
			40.4% 12.6% 0.5% - 59.6% 22.9% 1.8%
	4	2	bar/23 8/2	-0.255 ( -0.307)
			38.6% 11.4% 0.4% - 61.4% 19.3% 0.9%
	5	0	bar/23 20/14	-0.455 ( -0.507)
			35.6% 10.8% 0.4% - 64.3% 29.3% 2.9%

Move number 13: Jon Royset to play 52

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 150, Jon Royset 141
Position ID: LOeYgBE0z+ADQA Match ID: QYkqA6AAKAAA

• Jon Royset moves bar/23 8/3

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	bar/23 13/8	-0.161
			49.1% 11.3% 0.4% - 50.9% 17.8% 0.5%
•	2	2	bar/23 8/3	-0.169 ( -0.008)
			48.1% 12.5% 0.5% - 51.9% 17.6% 0.7%
	3	2	bar/20 3/1	-0.254 ( -0.092)
			46.4% 10.0% 0.4% - 53.6% 20.1% 0.5%
	4	2	bar/20 6/4	-0.263 ( -0.102)
			46.2% 10.2% 0.4% - 53.8% 21.0% 0.7%
	5	2	bar/23 6/1	-0.307 ( -0.145)
			44.5% 10.5% 0.4% - 55.5% 22.3% 0.8%

Annotation

Chuck Bower: As was the case in Royset's previous turn, there is no need to jump into a triple shot with a moderately close race and good alternatives on the other side of the board. Royset's choice of volunteering an extra 11 shots does well because the punching is likely to continue and having the stronger homeboard is valuable in these situations. Combine that with Tissona's homeboard blot as the safety valve which makes the bold play a key contender along with the solid 13/8.

Move number 14: Moshe Tissona to play 61

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 150, Jon Royset 134
Position ID: bJ7gAxAs55iAEQ Match ID: AQEnA6AAKAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 23/17* 4/3

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	23/17* 4/3	+0.195
			53.0% 15.5% 0.6% - 47.0% 11.2% 0.3%
	2	2	23/17*/16	+0.058 ( -0.137)
			49.6% 14.6% 0.6% - 50.4% 15.9% 0.7%
	3	2	13/7 8/7	+0.022 ( -0.174)
			47.7% 14.6% 0.5% - 52.3% 15.3% 0.5%
	4	2	11/4	-0.051 ( -0.247)
			44.6% 15.0% 0.6% - 55.4% 15.8% 0.6%
	5	2	13/6	-0.091 ( -0.286)
			43.1% 13.1% 0.5% - 56.9% 15.2% 0.5%

Annotation

Chuck Bower: With the homeboard disadvantage and two blots which must remain for this turn, Tissona can't afford to leave the 4-point slotted.

Move number 15: Jon Royset to play 32

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 143, Jon Royset 151
Position ID: HOeYEANsHvABSA Match ID: QYkpA6AAKAAA

• Jon Royset moves bar/20

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/20	-0.274
			45.1% 9.9% 0.3% - 54.9% 18.3% 0.7%
	2	2	bar/23 13/10	-0.313 ( -0.039)
			42.5% 10.1% 0.2% - 57.5% 15.6% 0.6%
	3	2	bar/23 6/3	-0.315 ( -0.040)
			42.5% 10.0% 0.2% - 57.5% 15.8% 0.6%
	4	2	bar/23 4/1	-0.449 ( -0.174)
			37.7% 8.8% 0.2% - 62.3% 17.3% 0.6%

Annotation

Chuck Bower: Tissona's 8-point is maximally effective if Royset makes the 23-point. Once again the better homeboard allows Royset to step boldly into the fray.

Move number 16: Moshe Tissona to play 55

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 143, Jon Royset 146
Position ID: bB7wAREc55gQAw Match ID: AYE2A6AAKAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 20/15(2) 13/3

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	20/15(2) 13/3	+0.213
			55.0% 12.3% 0.4% - 45.0% 11.8% 0.3%
	2	2	20/15(2) 13/8 6/1	+0.149 ( -0.064)
			53.4% 12.4% 0.4% - 46.6% 14.4% 0.3%
	3	2	13/8 11/1 11/6	+0.130 ( -0.083)
			49.8% 13.5% 0.3% - 50.2% 9.3% 0.1%
	4	2	20/10(2)	+0.109 ( -0.104)
			52.4% 12.4% 0.5% - 47.6% 15.9% 0.5%
	5	2	20/5* 13/8	+0.086 ( -0.127)
			51.0% 16.0% 0.7% - 49.0% 17.1% 0.7%

Move number 17: Jon Royset to play 64

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 123, Jon Royset 146
Position ID: PM4xTABsHvABEQ Match ID: QQkzA6AAKAAA

• Jon Royset moves 13/7 6/2

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	13/9 13/7	-0.352
			40.9% 10.7% 0.3% - 59.1% 17.0% 0.9%
•	2	2	13/7 6/2	-0.394 ( -0.042)
			39.5% 10.3% 0.2% - 60.5% 17.9% 0.8%
	3	2	13/3	-0.410 ( -0.058)
			38.8% 9.5% 0.2% - 61.2% 16.4% 0.6%
	4	2	20/16 13/7	-0.421 ( -0.069)
			38.8% 10.1% 0.3% - 61.2% 18.7% 0.7%

Annotation

Chuck Bower: With no anchor and under-the-gun, Royset chose the cautious 6/2. GNU says there are enough bold indicators to put a bit of pressure on Tissona's loose back checker and add a third builder for the 5-point.

Move number 18: Moshe Tissona to play 31

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 123, Jon Royset 136
Position ID: 2lzgARE8zjFMAA Match ID: AYElA6AAKAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 8/5* 6/5

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	8/5* 6/5	+0.618
			66.8% 22.3% 1.0% - 33.2% 7.6% 0.2%
	2	2	6/5/2	+0.310 ( -0.308)
			57.4% 21.7% 0.8% - 42.6% 14.0% 0.6%
	3	0	8/5* 3/2*	+0.255 ( -0.363)
			56.4% 25.6% 1.2% - 43.6% 18.5% 1.2%
	4	0	17/14 3/2*	+0.252 ( -0.366)
			56.9% 15.9% 0.5% - 43.1% 14.3% 0.5%
	5	0	17/14 15/14	+0.193 ( -0.425)
			54.0% 12.3% 0.4% - 46.0% 11.5% 0.3%

Move number 19: Jon Royset to play 22

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 119, Jon Royset 141
Position ID: PJsxTADaXOABSA Match ID: QQkpA6AAKAAA

• Jon Royset moves bar/21 23/21 7/5

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/21 23/21 7/5	-0.328
			40.3% 7.5% 0.2% - 59.7% 6.7% 0.3%
	2	2	bar/21 23/21 4/2	-0.372 ( -0.044)
			38.8% 6.8% 0.1% - 61.2% 7.1% 0.3%
	3	2	bar/23 13/11(2) 7/5	-0.379 ( -0.051)
			38.6% 9.4% 0.2% - 61.4% 11.1% 0.6%
	4	2	bar/21 23/21 6/4	-0.381 ( -0.053)
			38.5% 6.7% 0.1% - 61.5% 7.1% 0.3%
	5	2	bar/23 7/5 6/2	-0.417 ( -0.089)
			36.9% 8.4% 0.2% - 63.1% 9.6% 0.4%

Move number 20: Moshe Tissona to play 63

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 119, Jon Royset 133
Position ID: 2jrgAQY8mzFMAA Match ID: AQEvA6AAKAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 17/8

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	17/8	+0.440
			63.6% 5.3% 0.1% - 36.4% 4.6% 0.1%
	2	2	17/11 8/5	+0.299 ( -0.142)
			57.8% 11.0% 0.5% - 42.2% 8.9% 0.2%
	3	2	11/8 11/5	+0.244 ( -0.196)
			56.2% 10.1% 0.3% - 43.8% 9.9% 0.2%
	4	2	17/14 11/5	+0.204 ( -0.236)
			55.2% 11.3% 0.5% - 44.8% 12.1% 0.4%
	5	2	17/11 5/2	+0.163 ( -0.277)
			53.8% 8.3% 0.3% - 46.2% 11.2% 0.3%

Move number 21: Jon Royset to play 41

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 110, Jon Royset 133
Position ID: PJtjGADaOuABBg Match ID: QQkmA6AAKAAA

• Jon Royset moves 13/9 6/5

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	13/9 6/5	-0.378
			38.4% 6.0% 0.1% - 61.6% 4.9% 0.2%
	2	2	13/8	-0.432 ( -0.054)
			36.6% 5.4% 0.1% - 63.4% 5.8% 0.3%
	3	2	6/5 6/2	-0.435 ( -0.057)
			36.5% 5.8% 0.1% - 63.5% 6.0% 0.2%
	4	2	13/9 3/2	-0.441 ( -0.063)
			36.2% 5.0% 0.1% - 63.8% 5.0% 0.2%
	5	2	13/12 6/2	-0.454 ( -0.076)
			35.9% 6.5% 0.2% - 64.1% 8.1% 0.3%

Move number 22: Moshe Tissona to play 51

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 110, Jon Royset 128
Position ID: 2jbCAQY8m2MYAA Match ID: AYEmA6AAKAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 8/2

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	11/6 3/2	+0.422
			62.8% 7.3% 0.3% - 37.2% 5.7% 0.1%
•	2	2	8/2	+0.370 ( -0.052)
			61.1% 5.5% 0.1% - 38.9% 5.8% 0.1%
	3	2	11/5	+0.363 ( -0.059)
			60.5% 6.7% 0.2% - 39.5% 6.0% 0.2%
	4	2	11/10 11/6	+0.217 ( -0.204)
			55.2% 9.2% 0.4% - 44.8% 9.7% 0.3%
	5	2	6/5 6/1	+0.214 ( -0.207)
			55.2% 5.1% 0.1% - 44.8% 7.5% 0.1%

Annotation

Chuck Bower: Once again, opponent's homeboard blot allows a player to take some risk to avoid stripping his position.

Move number 23: Jon Royset to play 51

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 104, Jon Royset 128
Position ID: ejZjGADaNsIBBg Match ID: QYkmA6AAKAAA

• Jon Royset moves 13/7

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	13/8 9/8	-0.322
			40.5% 7.0% 0.2% - 59.5% 5.2% 0.2%
•	2	2	13/7	-0.332 ( -0.010)
			40.2% 7.1% 0.2% - 59.8% 5.9% 0.3%
	3	2	13/8 3/2	-0.333 ( -0.010)
			40.2% 7.1% 0.2% - 59.8% 5.8% 0.3%
	4	2	9/3	-0.357 ( -0.035)
			39.3% 6.8% 0.2% - 60.7% 5.8% 0.2%
	5	2	13/12 9/4	-0.371 ( -0.048)
			38.9% 8.0% 0.2% - 61.1% 8.4% 0.4%

Move number 24: Moshe Tissona to play 62

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 104, Jon Royset 122
Position ID: 2raEAQZ6NmMYAA Match ID: AQErA6AAKAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 11/5 3/1

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	11/5 3/1	+0.357
			60.5% 8.2% 0.5% - 39.5% 7.6% 0.2%
	2	2	8/6 8/2	+0.324 ( -0.033)
			59.2% 5.6% 0.1% - 40.8% 6.2% 0.1%
	3	2	11/3	+0.211 ( -0.146)
			55.1% 6.8% 0.3% - 44.9% 8.5% 0.3%
	4	2	11/9 11/5	+0.128 ( -0.229)
			52.3% 9.4% 0.7% - 47.7% 12.0% 0.5%
	5	2	8/2 3/1	+0.073 ( -0.284)
			50.8% 10.5% 0.6% - 49.2% 14.6% 0.4%

Move number 25: Jon Royset to play 21

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 96, Jon Royset 122
Position ID: dW5GGADatoQBBg Match ID: QQklA6AAKAAA

• Jon Royset moves 9/6

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	9/8 7/5	-0.432
			36.6% 5.1% 0.1% - 63.4% 5.4% 0.1%
•	2	2	9/6	-0.433 ( -0.001)
			36.6% 5.1% 0.1% - 63.5% 5.4% 0.1%
	3	2	9/8 4/2	-0.448 ( -0.015)
			36.1% 4.9% 0.1% - 63.9% 5.6% 0.1%
	4	2	5/2	-0.449 ( -0.016)
			36.0% 4.9% 0.1% - 64.0% 5.5% 0.1%
	5	2	7/5 3/2	-0.450 ( -0.018)
			35.9% 5.0% 0.1% - 64.1% 5.7% 0.1%

Move number 26: Moshe Tissona to play 52

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 96, Jon Royset 119
Position ID: 2naBAQZ1bkYYAA Match ID: AYEqA6AAKAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 11/6 3/1

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	11/6 3/1	+0.521
			66.9% 6.4% 0.1% - 33.1% 4.0% 0.0%
	2	2	11/6 5/3	+0.419 ( -0.101)
			62.9% 5.8% 0.1% - 37.1% 4.9% 0.0%
	3	2	8/6 8/3	+0.305 ( -0.216)
			58.5% 8.7% 0.2% - 41.5% 8.3% 0.3%
	4	0	11/6 8/6	+0.096 ( -0.425)
			52.0% 8.6% 0.2% - 48.0% 13.8% 0.3%
	5	0	8/1	-0.059 ( -0.580)
			48.2% 9.4% 0.1% - 51.8% 20.1% 0.7%

Move number 27: Jon Royset to play 21

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 89, Jon Royset 119
Position ID: a+4MGADadoEBBg Match ID: QQklA6AAKAAA

• Jon Royset moves 6/3

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	5/2	-0.489
			35.2% 4.2% 0.0% - 64.8% 6.5% 0.1%
•	2	2	6/3	-0.491 ( -0.003)
			35.0% 4.4% 0.0% - 65.0% 6.8% 0.1%
	3	2	6/4 3/2	-0.495 ( -0.007)
			34.9% 4.2% 0.0% - 65.1% 6.6% 0.1%
	4	2	7/4	-0.496 ( -0.007)
			34.7% 4.5% 0.0% - 65.3% 6.5% 0.1%
	5	2	6/5 4/2	-0.507 ( -0.018)
			34.5% 4.2% 0.0% - 65.5% 6.8% 0.2%

Move number 28: Moshe Tissona to play 54

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 89, Jon Royset 116
Position ID: um2BAQZr7gwYAA Match ID: AYEyA6AAKAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 15/6

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	15/6	+0.382
			58.6% 10.1% 0.3% - 41.4% 5.6% 0.1%
	2	2	6/1 5/1	+0.365 ( -0.017)
			61.1% 7.0% 0.0% - 38.9% 6.9% 0.1%
	3	2	15/11 15/10	+0.343 ( -0.039)
			58.7% 12.2% 0.7% - 41.3% 12.6% 0.6%
	4	2	8/3 6/2	+0.232 ( -0.150)
			55.2% 11.1% 0.3% - 44.8% 9.5% 0.2%
	5	2	8/3 5/1	+0.122 ( -0.260)
			52.0% 9.3% 0.2% - 48.0% 11.9% 0.3%

Annotation

Chuck Bower: GNU 2-ply evaluation agreed with Tissona's play but a strong rollout said clearing both checkers from the 15-point is clearly the best choice. Comparing the two plays, one leaves 15 shots and the other 17. A big advantage for giving Royset 2 extra shots is the cash reward on 18 of 19 misses. The third candidate of leaving no blots, but badly stripping the position, has an ugliness which is also revealed when the rollouts peel off the makeup.

Move number 29: Jon Royset to play 51

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 80, Jon Royset 116
Position ID: a+4ZEAC6bYEBBg Match ID: QYkmA6AAKAAA

• Jon Royset moves 7/2 3/2

Alert: unlucky roll! ( -0.465)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	7/2 3/2	-0.712
			26.2% 1.8% 0.0% - 73.8% 3.3% 0.1%
	2	2	13/8 3/2	-0.848 ( -0.136)
			24.5% 2.6% 0.0% - 75.5% 8.2% 0.1%
	3	2	7/1	-0.904 ( -0.191)
			21.5% 1.8% 0.0% - 78.5% 6.9% 0.3%
	4	2	13/7	-0.920 ( -0.207)
			22.5% 2.6% 0.0% - 77.5% 9.7% 0.2%
	5	2	6/1 3/2	-0.931 ( -0.218)
			21.3% 1.6% 0.0% - 78.7% 7.5% 0.5%

Move number 30: Moshe Tissona doubles to 4

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 80, Jon Royset 110
Position ID: btuAAQZr7hkQAA Match ID: ARkgA6AAKAAA

• Jon Royset rejects

Alert: wrong pass ( -0.230)! [very bad]

Cube decision

Rollout cubeless equity

+0.497

(Money: +0.501)

Cubeful equities:

Double, take

+0.770

Double, pass

+1.000

(+0.230)

No double

+0.717

(-0.053)

Proper cube action:

Redouble, take

Rollout details

	Win	W g	W bg		Lose	L g	L bg	Cubeless	Cubeful
Player Moshe Tissona owns 2-cube	74.1%	3.3%	0.1%	-	25.9%	1.5%	0.0%	+0.497	+0.717
Standard error	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	-	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.002	0.003
Player Jon Royset owns 4-cube	75.5%	3.5%	0.0%	-	24.5%	1.6%	0.0%	+0.966	+0.770
Standard error	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	-	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.005	0.006

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175372288 and quasi-random dice

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed

Annotation

Chuck Bower: After an agressive initial double (which the bots agreed with), Royset swallows a Double Whopper by passing the recube. The only reasonable explanation I can see is that he just misevaluated his chances in this position. That happens, even in the most important match of the backgammon year. After 12 games there have been five passes of takeable positions. Will there be more??

Moshe Tissona wins 2 points

Game statistics for game 12
Player	Moshe Tissona	Jon Royset
Checker play statistics
Total moves	14	14
Unforced moves	14	14
Moves marked very good	0	0
Moves marked good	0	0
Moves marked interesting	0	0
Moves unmarked	12	13
Moves marked doubtful	1	1
Moves marked bad	1	0
Moves marked very bad	0	0
Error rate (total)	-0.164 ( -0.762%)	-0.063 ( -0.439%)
Error rate (pr. move)	-0.012 ( -0.054% )	-0.005 ( -0.031%)
Chequer play rating	Advanced	World class
Luck statistics
Rolls marked very lucky	0	0
Rolls marked lucky	0	0
Rolls unmarked	14	13
Rolls marked unlucky	0	1
Rolls marked very unlucky	0	0
Luck rate (total)	-0.381 ( -1.430%)	-1.069 ( -7.972%)
Luck rate (pr. move)	-0.027 ( -0.102%)	-0.076 ( -0.569%)
Luck rating	Better luck next time	Go to bed
Cube statistics
Total cube decisions	15	5
Close or actual cube decisions	2	4
Doubles	1	1
Takes	1	0
Passes	0	1
Missed doubles around DP	0	0
Missed doubles around TG	0	0
Wrong doubles around DP	0	0
Wrong doubles around TG	0	0
Wrong takes	0	0
Wrong passes	0	1 (-0.230 ( -1.595%))
Error rate (total)	0	-0.230 ( -1.595%)
Error rate (per cube decision)	0	-0.058 ( -0.399%)
Cube decision rating	Supernatural	Awful!
Overall rating
Error rate (total)	-0.164 ( -0.762%)	-0.294 ( -2.034%)
Error rate (per decision)	-0.010 ( -0.048% )	-0.016 ( -0.113%)
Equivalent Snowie error rate	-5.9	-10.5
Overall rating	Advanced	Intermediate
Actual result	57.09%	42.91%
Luck adjusted result	50.55%	49.45%
Relative FIBS rating	1.91	-1.91

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Output generated Sat Aug 09 03:09:48 2003 by GNU Backgammon 0.14-devel 1.1238 030804 (HTML Export version 1.126)