Game number 17

Moshe Tissona (13 pts) vs. Jon Royset (12 pts) (Match to 25)

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Match Information

Moshe Tissona's rating: 0 (Exp 0)
Jon Royset's rating: 0 (Exp 0)
Date: July 13, 2003
Event: World Championship 2003
Round: Final
Place: Monte Carlo
Annotator: Casper van der Tak, Chuck Bower, Alex Zamanian, Tom Suzanski, Christian Toth, and GNU 0.14

Move number 1: Moshe Tissona to play 63

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 167, Jon Royset 167
Position ID: 4HPwATDgc/ABMA Match ID: MAAvA9AAYAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 24/18 13/10

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	24/18 13/10	+0.031
			51.4% 13.6% 0.6% - 48.6% 13.6% 0.4%
	2	2	24/15	+0.006 ( -0.025)
			51.0% 12.3% 0.5% - 49.0% 13.4% 0.4%
	3	2	13/4	-0.032 ( -0.063)
			49.3% 14.3% 0.6% - 50.7% 14.0% 0.6%
	4	2	24/21 13/7	-0.034 ( -0.065)
			49.4% 13.9% 0.7% - 50.6% 14.0% 0.5%
	5	2	24/21 24/18	-0.049 ( -0.080)
			49.8% 12.0% 0.7% - 50.2% 14.7% 0.4%

Move number 2: Jon Royset to play 51

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 158, Jon Royset 167
Position ID: 4HPiQSDgc/ABMA Match ID: cIkmA9AAYAAA

• Jon Royset moves 13/7*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	8/7* 6/1*	-0.046
			48.4% 14.7% 0.5% - 51.6% 15.4% 0.9%
•	2	2	13/7*	-0.047 ( -0.001)
			48.4% 13.6% 0.6% - 51.6% 14.5% 0.7%
	3	2	24/23 13/8	-0.169 ( -0.123)
			45.3% 11.3% 0.3% - 54.7% 14.3% 0.4%
	4	2	24/23 6/1*	-0.175 ( -0.128)
			45.0% 11.8% 0.3% - 55.0% 14.5% 0.6%
	5	2	24/18	-0.184 ( -0.138)
			45.5% 9.7% 0.2% - 54.5% 14.6% 0.4%

Annotation

Alex Zamanian: Playing 8/7* 6/1* strips the 8 and buries a checker on the ace point for the benefit of putting two up on the roof and minimizing return shots. It's a close call, but rollouts show 13/7* to be better.

Move number 3: Moshe Tissona to play 42

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 165, Jon Royset 161
Position ID: 4OvgATDgc+IBUA Match ID: MAEqA9AAYAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves bar/21 13/11

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	bar/23 13/9	-0.070
			48.9% 14.5% 0.7% - 51.1% 16.3% 0.7%
•	2	2	bar/21 13/11	-0.082 ( -0.012)
			48.8% 13.8% 0.7% - 51.2% 16.2% 0.7%
	3	2	bar/23 24/20	-0.123 ( -0.052)
			47.8% 12.6% 0.6% - 52.2% 15.9% 0.6%
	4	2	bar/21 10/8	-0.125 ( -0.055)
			47.7% 12.3% 0.6% - 52.3% 15.6% 0.5%
	5	2	bar/21 24/22	-0.126 ( -0.056)
			47.9% 12.6% 0.7% - 52.1% 16.5% 0.6%

Annotation

Alex Zamanian: Playing B/21 13/11 leaves White a little too exposed. Red will likely be attacking the checker on the 21 point, and the blots in White's outfield will be targets as opposed to builders. It makes more sense to tread a little lighter with B/23 13/9. White is less likely to be attacked and will have better chances to use the checkers in his outfield as builders.

Move number 4: Jon Royset to play 64

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 159, Jon Royset 161
Position ID: 4HPKASLg6+ABMA Match ID: cAkzA9AAYAAA

• Jon Royset moves 13/7 8/4*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	13/7 8/4*	+0.077
			51.1% 16.5% 0.8% - 48.9% 14.1% 0.7%
	2	2	24/14*	+0.070 ( -0.007)
			51.7% 14.0% 0.7% - 48.3% 13.8% 0.5%
	3	2	24/20 13/7	+0.016 ( -0.061)
			50.4% 13.8% 0.5% - 49.6% 14.4% 0.4%
	4	2	13/9 13/7	-0.088 ( -0.165)
			47.3% 13.4% 0.5% - 52.7% 14.9% 0.7%
	5	2	13/7 6/2	-0.095 ( -0.172)
			47.2% 14.1% 0.5% - 52.8% 16.0% 0.7%

Annotation

Alex Zamanian: Both 24/14* and 13/7 8/4* do two good things: 24/14* escapes a back checker and hits White on his side of the board, and 13/7 8/4* locks up the bar point and hits White loose. Both also leave a similar number of shots, so it's not surprising the plays are close.

Move number 5: Moshe Tissona to play 32

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 163, Jon Royset 151
Position ID: yLfBATDgc8oBUA Match ID: MIEpA9AAYAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves bar/23 24/21*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/23 24/21*	+0.079
			52.2% 16.0% 1.0% - 47.8% 13.9% 0.6%
	2	2	bar/22 24/22	-0.078 ( -0.157)
			47.9% 12.9% 0.5% - 52.1% 13.2% 0.4%
	3	2	bar/23 13/10	-0.223 ( -0.302)
			45.9% 13.3% 0.6% - 54.1% 19.8% 0.9%
	4	0	bar/22 13/11	-0.258 ( -0.337)
			45.0% 12.8% 0.7% - 55.0% 20.5% 0.9%
	5	0	bar/20	-0.309 ( -0.388)
			43.9% 11.8% 0.6% - 56.1% 20.9% 1.0%

Move number 6: Jon Royset to play 54

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 158, Jon Royset 172
Position ID: 4HPKARLg2+AAWA Match ID: cIkyA9AAYAAA

• Jon Royset moves bar/20 24/20

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/20 24/20	+0.166
			53.7% 13.5% 0.4% - 46.3% 9.6% 0.2%
	2	2	bar/20 6/2*	-0.137 ( -0.303)
			46.9% 13.7% 0.8% - 53.1% 17.6% 1.2%
	3	2	bar/21 13/8	-0.164 ( -0.330)
			45.8% 13.1% 0.6% - 54.2% 16.8% 0.9%
	4	0	bar/16	-0.193 ( -0.359)
			45.2% 12.1% 0.5% - 54.8% 17.2% 0.9%
	5	0	bar/20 13/9	-0.261 ( -0.427)
			43.6% 12.6% 0.6% - 56.4% 19.3% 1.3%

Move number 7: Moshe Tissona to play 31

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 158, Jon Royset 163
Position ID: 4NvggCHgc8oBEg Match ID: MIElA9AAYAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 13/10 11/10

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	23/20 21/20	-0.051
			48.6% 9.8% 0.3% - 51.4% 10.0% 0.2%
	2	2	23/20 11/10	-0.103 ( -0.052)
			49.0% 9.4% 0.2% - 51.0% 14.0% 0.3%
•	3	2	13/10 11/10	-0.107 ( -0.056)
			48.7% 9.9% 0.2% - 51.3% 14.2% 0.3%
	4	2	11/10 6/3	-0.171 ( -0.120)
			47.2% 9.4% 0.2% - 52.8% 15.1% 0.4%
	5	2	10/7 8/7	-0.185 ( -0.134)
			46.2% 10.3% 0.3% - 53.8% 14.9% 0.4%

Annotation

Alex Zamanian: Locking up the 20 point anchor with 23/20 21/20 guarantees White something resembling an even game. Things are less clear after 13/10 11/10, but Red may get to attack White giving him a nice advantage. White should take the bird in the hand and play 23/20 21/20.

Move number 8: Jon Royset to play 43

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 154, Jon Royset 163
Position ID: 4HOOARLg2+CAIQ Match ID: cAkuA9AAYAAA

• Jon Royset moves 8/4* 7/4

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	8/4* 7/4	+0.074
			50.2% 16.4% 0.5% - 49.8% 11.8% 0.4%
	2	2	24/20 6/3	+0.033 ( -0.041)
			49.9% 11.0% 0.3% - 50.1% 8.7% 0.2%
	3	2	13/6	+0.008 ( -0.066)
			48.7% 12.2% 0.3% - 51.3% 9.2% 0.2%
	4	2	24/20 13/10	-0.005 ( -0.080)
			48.9% 10.9% 0.3% - 51.1% 9.3% 0.2%
	5	2	24/21 6/2*	-0.028 ( -0.102)
			48.3% 11.1% 0.3% - 51.7% 10.1% 0.2%

Move number 9: Moshe Tissona to play 43

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 158, Jon Royset 156
Position ID: mK/ggCHgc44BSA Match ID: MAEuA9AAYAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves bar/18*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	bar/18*	+0.221
			56.8% 14.7% 0.6% - 43.2% 12.8% 0.3%
	2	0	bar/22 10/6	-0.255 ( -0.477)
			45.3% 10.2% 0.3% - 54.7% 18.8% 0.5%
	3	0	bar/22 6/2	-0.299 ( -0.521)
			44.6% 10.2% 0.4% - 55.4% 20.8% 0.7%
	4	0	bar/22 8/4	-0.302 ( -0.523)
			44.7% 10.4% 0.4% - 55.3% 21.0% 0.8%
	5	0	bar/22 13/9	-0.510 ( -0.732)
			39.8% 9.4% 0.3% - 60.2% 24.8% 1.3%

Move number 10: Jon Royset to play 22

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 151, Jon Royset 174
Position ID: 4HOOQRCYT3DAUA Match ID: cAkpA9AAYAAA

• Jon Royset moves bar/23 13/7*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/23 13/7*	-0.117
			46.2% 14.5% 0.5% - 53.8% 15.8% 0.6%
	2	2	bar/23 8/2*	-0.199 ( -0.082)
			43.5% 13.1% 0.3% - 56.6% 14.3% 0.4%
	3	2	bar/21 6/2*	-0.206 ( -0.088)
			43.8% 12.9% 0.4% - 56.2% 15.5% 0.6%
	4	2	bar/23 6/2* 6/4	-0.219 ( -0.102)
			43.5% 13.3% 0.4% - 56.4% 16.3% 0.7%
	5	2	bar/23 24/22 6/2*	-0.220 ( -0.103)
			43.5% 12.7% 0.4% - 56.5% 15.8% 0.6%

Move number 11: Moshe Tissona to play 64

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 158, Jon Royset 166
Position ID: mK9gwCjgc44BSA Match ID: MAEzA9AAYAAA

• Moshe Tissona cannot move

Alert: unlucky roll! ( -0.419)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
			Cannot move

Move number 12: Jon Royset to play 61

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 158, Jon Royset 166
Position ID: 4HOOAUiYr2DAKA Match ID: cAknA9AAYAAA

• Jon Royset moves 24/18 8/7

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	24/18 8/7	+0.165
			52.4% 16.6% 0.6% - 47.6% 10.0% 0.2%
	2	2	20/14 8/7	+0.090 ( -0.075)
			51.1% 16.8% 0.7% - 48.9% 13.1% 0.5%
	3	2	13/7 8/7	+0.078 ( -0.087)
			50.0% 16.5% 0.6% - 50.0% 11.1% 0.2%
	4	2	8/2* 6/5	+0.077 ( -0.088)
			50.4% 18.5% 0.7% - 49.6% 15.1% 0.7%
	5	2	23/22 8/2*	+0.074 ( -0.091)
			49.7% 18.6% 0.6% - 50.3% 12.9% 0.4%

Move number 13: Moshe Tissona to play 43

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 158, Jon Royset 159
Position ID: mG9gkBHgc44BSA Match ID: MAEuA9AAYAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves bar/22 10/6

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	bar/22 6/2*	-0.147
			48.2% 10.8% 0.3% - 51.8% 16.9% 0.6%
•	2	2	bar/22 10/6	-0.200 ( -0.053)
			46.7% 10.8% 0.3% - 53.3% 17.7% 0.5%
	3	2	bar/22 8/4	-0.285 ( -0.138)
			45.3% 10.5% 0.4% - 54.7% 20.1% 0.8%
	4	0	bar/22 13/9	-0.674 ( -0.527)
			37.0% 8.1% 0.2% - 63.0% 25.8% 1.4%

Annotation

Alex Zamanian: Playing B/22 6/2* is ugly but there are two reasons to play it. The alternative, B/22 10/6 leaves a worse distribution of builders and allows Red his whole roll to attack. Also, Red is particularly keen to attack in this position, since he has a big stack of checkers on his 6 point, and would love the opportunity to unload that stack of checkers onto White's blots.

Move number 14: Jon Royset to play 63

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 151, Jon Royset 159
Position ID: 4OeMARSYb2CQEQ Match ID: cAkvA9AAYAAA

• Jon Royset moves 23/14

Ply

Move

Equity

13/7 6/3*

+0.144

52.3%	17.0%	0.7%	-	47.7%	12.1%	0.5%	+0.101	+0.144
0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	-	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.006	0.014

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175229184

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

•

23/14

+0.143 ( -0.001)

52.4%	13.8%	0.6%	-	47.6%	8.8%	0.3%	+0.104	+0.143
0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	-	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.005	0.011

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175229184

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

20/14 6/3*

+0.069 ( -0.075)

51.9% 17.3% 0.9% - 48.1% 17.7% 1.1%

23/20 13/7

+0.063 ( -0.081)

50.1% 13.6% 0.4% - 49.9% 9.4% 0.2%

13/10 13/7

+0.002 ( -0.142)

48.4% 14.3% 0.4% - 51.6% 11.0% 0.2%

Annotation

Alex Zamanian: Red can attack with 13/7 6/3*, but it costs him his midpoint, and leaves several blots. It is the thematic play though, with Red having the stronger board and a big stack of checkers on his 6 point. I prefer it to the Red's choice of 23/14 which leaves a bunch of shots anyhow.

Bots: Snowie evaluated 13/4 as a 0.050 mistake, though also preferring 13/7 6/3*.

Move number 15: Moshe Tissona to play 65

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 151, Jon Royset 150
Position ID: mG9gIQPg54wBFA Match ID: MAE3A9AAYAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 23/17 22/17

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	23/17 22/17	+0.158
			56.0% 6.4% 0.1% - 44.0% 7.6% 0.1%
	2	2	22/11*	-0.092 ( -0.250)
			49.1% 11.3% 0.4% - 50.9% 15.6% 0.4%
	3	0	13/8 13/7*	-0.317 ( -0.475)
			42.8% 9.5% 0.2% - 57.2% 17.0% 0.5%
	4	0	22/16 6/1	-0.386 ( -0.544)
			42.1% 9.0% 0.2% - 57.9% 20.4% 0.5%
	5	0	22/16 8/3	-0.389 ( -0.547)
			42.1% 9.0% 0.2% - 57.9% 20.6% 0.7%

Move number 16: Jon Royset to play 31

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 140, Jon Royset 150
Position ID: 4OeMYQCYb2AhAw Match ID: cIklA9AAYAAA

• Jon Royset moves 14/13 6/3

Ply

Move

Equity

•

14/13 6/3

-0.231

43.1%	7.9%	0.2%	-	56.9%	6.2%	0.2%	-0.120	-0.231
0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	-	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	0.006	0.013

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175229184

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed

14/11 6/5

-0.251 ( -0.020)

42.9%	8.6%	0.3%	-	57.1%	7.5%	0.3%	-0.131	-0.251
0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	-	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	0.006	0.015

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175229184

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed

6/5 6/3

-0.259 ( -0.028)

42.8%	10.0%	0.5%	-	57.2%	10.6%	0.4%	-0.148	-0.259
0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	-	0.3%	0.2%	0.0%	0.007	0.015

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175229184

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed

14/13 7/4

-0.190 ( +0.042)

43.2% 7.8% 0.1% - 56.8% 7.0% 0.1%

14/10

-0.207 ( +0.024)

42.8% 8.8% 0.2% - 57.2% 8.7% 0.2%

Annotation

Bots: Snowie says 14/11 6/5 is best and that 14/13 6/3 is a 0.051 error. GNU says they are about equal.

Move number 17: Moshe Tissona to play 65

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 140, Jon Royset 146
Position ID: NG/gIAPg54xhAA Match ID: MAE3A9AAYAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 17/6

Alert: very bad move ( -0.173)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	13/8 13/7*	+0.221
			57.5% 10.1% 0.3% - 42.5% 9.4% 0.2%
	2	2	8/2 6/1	+0.112 ( -0.110)
			55.1% 7.0% 0.1% - 44.9% 9.6% 0.1%
•	3	2	17/6	+0.049 ( -0.173)
			53.8% 6.7% 0.2% - 46.2% 10.8% 0.2%
	4	2	13/7*/2	+0.011 ( -0.210)
			52.4% 9.1% 0.2% - 47.6% 12.6% 0.3%
	5	2	13/2	-0.077 ( -0.298)
			49.5% 7.9% 0.2% - 50.5% 12.1% 0.2%

Annotation

Alex Zamanian: White's play of 17/6 leaves more shots than 13/7* 13/8, and is worse if White gets hit, as White would like to have the 17 point anchor as a landing spot for the hit checker.

It's not clear which play is better if White gets missed. 17/6 clears that back point, but White may not be able to get that last checker to safety, and has a lot of work left to do in any event. 13/7* 13/8 steals 7 pips in the race and is easier to clean up after at the cost of leaving the rearmost point stranded.

Since 13/7* 13/8 is better after a hit, and may be better after a miss, and leaves fewer shots, it must be the right play.

Move number 18: Jon Royset to play 32

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 129, Jon Royset 146
Position ID: 4M8ZQwA0b+AgAw Match ID: cIkpA9AAYAAA

• Jon Royset moves 13/8*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	13/8*	+0.075
			50.3% 14.9% 0.4% - 49.7% 10.7% 0.3%
	2	2	7/5 6/3	-0.184 ( -0.259)
			42.5% 7.9% 0.2% - 57.5% 4.8% 0.1%
	3	2	18/16 6/3	-0.201 ( -0.276)
			42.0% 7.0% 0.1% - 58.0% 4.1% 0.1%
	4	2	13/11 6/3	-0.224 ( -0.299)
			41.7% 8.1% 0.2% - 58.3% 6.5% 0.1%
	5	0	20/18 6/3	-0.241 ( -0.316)
			41.7% 6.5% 0.0% - 58.3% 6.5% 0.1%

Move number 19: Moshe Tissona to play 54

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 137, Jon Royset 141
Position ID: NG/BIAPgzxkDQA Match ID: MIEyA9AAYAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves bar/16

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/16	-0.007
			52.5% 6.4% 0.2% - 47.5% 11.3% 0.2%
	2	2	bar/20 6/2	-0.278 ( -0.271)
			45.1% 9.3% 0.3% - 54.9% 17.8% 0.4%
	3	2	bar/20 8/4	-0.313 ( -0.305)
			44.2% 9.1% 0.3% - 55.8% 18.2% 0.5%
	4	0	bar/20 10/6	-0.707 ( -0.700)
			35.1% 7.2% 0.1% - 64.9% 22.8% 0.7%
	5	0	bar/20 13/9	-0.998 ( -0.990)
			32.0% 7.1% 0.2% - 68.0% 28.7% 1.6%

Move number 20: Jon Royset to play 61

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 128, Jon Royset 141
Position ID: 4M8ZIwA0b8EgAw Match ID: cAknA9AAYAAA

• Jon Royset moves 8/2 3/2

Alert: unlucky roll! ( -0.322)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	8/2 3/2	-0.213
			41.8% 6.6% 0.1% - 58.2% 4.2% 0.1%
	2	2	8/2 6/5	-0.238 ( -0.025)
			41.2% 6.4% 0.1% - 58.8% 5.0% 0.1%
	3	2	7/1 6/5	-0.278 ( -0.066)
			40.2% 6.3% 0.1% - 59.8% 5.4% 0.2%
	4	2	8/2 4/3	-0.293 ( -0.081)
			39.9% 5.8% 0.1% - 60.1% 5.4% 0.1%
	5	2	8/1	-0.296 ( -0.084)
			39.8% 6.0% 0.1% - 60.2% 5.5% 0.1%

Move number 21: Moshe Tissona to play 55

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 128, Jon Royset 134
Position ID: Zt7AIAPgzxkjAA Match ID: MIE2A9AAYAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 16/6 13/8(2)

Alert: lucky roll! ( +0.444)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	16/6 13/8(2)	+0.906
			75.6% 2.7% 0.1% - 24.4% 1.1% 0.0%
	2	2	16/1 6/1	+0.654 ( -0.252)
			70.1% 4.5% 0.1% - 29.9% 2.6% 0.0%
	3	2	16/1 8/3	+0.511 ( -0.395)
			67.2% 5.1% 0.1% - 32.8% 4.3% 0.1%
	4	0	13/3(2)	+0.151 ( -0.755)
			55.1% 7.1% 0.1% - 44.9% 6.8% 0.1%
	5	0	13/8(2) 6/1(2)	+0.116 ( -0.790)
			54.3% 7.5% 0.1% - 45.7% 8.1% 0.1%

Move number 22: Jon Royset to play 61

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 108, Jon Royset 134
Position ID: 4J/PAABm3sAgAw Match ID: cAknA9AAYAAA

• Jon Royset moves 13/7 6/5

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	13/7 6/5	-0.848
			25.5% 1.3% 0.0% - 74.5% 3.0% 0.0%
	2	2	13/7 4/3	-0.866 ( -0.018)
			25.2% 1.2% 0.0% - 74.8% 2.8% 0.0%
	3	2	13/6	-0.870 ( -0.022)
			25.1% 1.2% 0.0% - 74.9% 3.0% 0.0%
	4	2	13/12 13/7	-0.875 ( -0.027)
			25.0% 1.3% 0.0% - 75.0% 3.0% 0.0%
	5	2	7/1 6/5	-0.878 ( -0.030)
			25.2% 1.4% 0.0% - 74.8% 3.6% 0.0%

Move number 23: Moshe Tissona doubles to 2

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 108, Jon Royset 127
Position ID: Zt2BIAPgn88AAA Match ID: MBkgA9AAYAAA

• Jon Royset rejects

Cube decision

Rollout cubeless equity

+0.549

(Money: +0.548)

Cubeful equities:

Double, pass

+1.000

Double, take

+1.015

(+0.015)

No double

+0.952

(-0.048)

Proper cube action:

Double, pass

Rollout details

	Win	W g	W bg		Lose	L g	L bg	Cubeless	Cubeful
Centered 1-cube	76.8%	2.5%	0.0%	-	23.2%	1.2%	0.0%	+0.549	+0.952
Standard error	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	-	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.002	0.006
Player Jon Royset owns 2-cube	77.4%	2.4%	0.0%	-	22.6%	1.2%	0.0%	+1.153	+1.015
Standard error	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	-	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.006	0.007

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175289984 and quasi-random dice

Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed

Annotation

Alex Zamanian: Red is down 19 pips in a 100 pip race which would indicate a good sized pass on the pip count alone. Red has some chances to get a shot, but how many? White has plenty of time to roll a good number to clear the 10 point since he has a multitude of spares on the 8 and 6 points. He may also leave a shot when trying to clear the 8 point but will probably have many chances to clear safely. Since White has so much time to clear his outfield points, it doesn't look like Red will hit enough to take when he's this far down in the race.

Bots: Snowie says this is a borderline Double/Take and that the pass is a 0.356 blunder, whereas GNU thought passing was only a 0.143 blunder.

Moshe Tissona wins 1 point

Game statistics for game 17
Player	Moshe Tissona	Jon Royset
Checker play statistics
Total moves	11	11
Unforced moves	10	11
Moves marked very good	0	0
Moves marked good	0	0
Moves marked interesting	0	0
Moves unmarked	8	11
Moves marked doubtful	2	0
Moves marked bad	0	0
Moves marked very bad	1	0
Error rate (total)	-0.293 ( -1.232%)	-0.002 ( -0.010%)
Error rate (pr. move)	-0.029 ( -0.123% )	-0.000 ( -0.001%)
Chequer play rating	Beginner	Supernatural
Luck statistics
Rolls marked very lucky	0	0
Rolls marked lucky	1	0
Rolls unmarked	9	10
Rolls marked unlucky	1	1
Rolls marked very unlucky	0	0
Luck rate (total)	+0.364 ( +1.529%)	-0.779 ( -3.272%)
Luck rate (pr. move)	+0.033 ( +0.139%)	-0.071 ( -0.297%)
Luck rating	Good dice, man!	Go to bed
Cube statistics
Total cube decisions	11	12
Close or actual cube decisions	2	3
Doubles	1	0
Takes	0	0
Passes	0	1
Missed doubles around DP	0	0
Missed doubles around TG	0	0
Wrong doubles around DP	0	0
Wrong doubles around TG	0	0
Wrong takes	0	0
Wrong passes	0	0
Error rate (total)	0	0
Error rate (per cube decision)	0	0
Cube decision rating	Supernatural	Supernatural
Overall rating
Error rate (total)	-0.293 ( -1.232%)	-0.002 ( -0.010%)
Error rate (per decision)	-0.024 ( -0.103% )	-0.000 ( -0.001%)
Equivalent Snowie error rate	-13.3	-0.1
Overall rating	Casual player	Supernatural
Actual result	54.20%	45.80%
Luck adjusted result	49.40%	50.60%
Relative FIBS rating	-2.09	2.09

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