Probability and Statistics

Forum Archive : Probability and Statistics

 
Losing after bearing off 14 checkers

From:   Daniel Murphy
Address:   raccoon@cityraccoon.com
Date:   27 July 1999
Subject:   Re: FIBS Dice
Forum:   rec.games.backgammon
Google:   379dcfcc.31260837@news.inet.tele.dk

How unusual is this? Dunno. I've mentioned already that I've done it
and had it done to me more than twice in rea life, but here's 2-3 more
datapoints:

(1) According to rollouts by Backgammon Magazine editor Harald
Johanni, IF you have a closed board with well distributed spares when
you hit that last checker, you should win about 3% of the time.

(2) And Bob got an LOL out of this when I mentioned to him on FIBS:
This past weekend at the Danish Doubles Championship tournament
(that's "real life"), I won a game in my first match after hitting the
last checker. And I'll remember this one for a while, because the cube
was in the middle for the entire game (forgetful opponent!).

(3) And there's someone else who might find Bob's experience unusual:

"One thing I always remember from those games [about 14-15
years ago ... in Redondo Beach/Long Beach ... at Annabelle's,
where they used to have Sunday bg tournaments]. I had lost against an
older Armenian guy. He had hit my very last piece to go on to win the
game and the match with it, something that hadn't/hasn't happened
before or after that. At the time I was in my mid-twenties at the most
and he had perhaps taught some "kid" a memorable lesson that
in bg, if it can happen then it can happen..." - Murat Kalinyaprak

Daniel Murphy
www.cityraccoon.com/
 
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How many games to decide who's better?  (Stephen Turner, Mar 1997) 
How often is too often?  (Gary Wong, Oct 1998) 
Losing after bearing off 14 checkers  (Daniel Murphy, July 1999) 
Number of games per match  (Jason Lee+, Jan 2005) 
Number of rolls to enter x checkers from bar  (Michael Depreli+, Mar 2011) 
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