Forum Archive :
Probability and Statistics
Losing after bearing off 14 checkers
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How unusual is this? Dunno. I've mentioned already that I've done it
and had it done to me more than twice in rea life, but here's 2-3 more
datapoints:
(1) According to rollouts by Backgammon Magazine editor Harald
Johanni, IF you have a closed board with well distributed spares when
you hit that last checker, you should win about 3% of the time.
(2) And Bob got an LOL out of this when I mentioned to him on FIBS:
This past weekend at the Danish Doubles Championship tournament
(that's "real life"), I won a game in my first match after hitting the
last checker. And I'll remember this one for a while, because the cube
was in the middle for the entire game (forgetful opponent!).
(3) And there's someone else who might find Bob's experience unusual:
"One thing I always remember from those games [about 14-15
years ago ... in Redondo Beach/Long Beach ... at Annabelle's,
where they used to have Sunday bg tournaments]. I had lost against an
older Armenian guy. He had hit my very last piece to go on to win the
game and the match with it, something that hadn't/hasn't happened
before or after that. At the time I was in my mid-twenties at the most
and he had perhaps taught some "kid" a memorable lesson that
in bg, if it can happen then it can happen..." - Murat Kalinyaprak
Daniel Murphy
www.cityraccoon.com/
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Probability and Statistics
- Average game and match length (JP White, Dec 2000)
- Average luck of each roll (Timothy Chow+, Mar 2013)
- Average luck of each roll (Jørn Thyssen+, Feb 2004)
- Calculating winning chances (Douglas Zare, June 2000)
- Chance of rolling x doubles in y rolls (Raccoon+, July 2007)
- Chance of rolling x or more pips in y rolls (Tom Keith, Feb 2004)
- Clumping of random numbers (Gary Wong, Sept 1998)
- Counting shots (Koyunbaba+, June 2007)
- Counting shots (John Little+, Mar 2007)
- Distribution of points per game (Roland Sutter, June 1999)
- Distribution of points per game (Stig Eide+, Sept 1995)
- Expected variation in points after a series of games (Achim Müller+, Feb 1999)
- How many games to decide who's better? (Stephen Turner, Mar 1997)
- How often is too often? (Gary Wong, Oct 1998)
- Losing after bearing off 14 checkers (Daniel Murphy, July 1999)
- Number of games per match (Jason Lee+, Jan 2005)
- Number of rolls to enter x checkers from bar (Michael Depreli+, Mar 2011)
- Visualizing odds (Daithi, Mar 2011)
From GammOnLine
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