Backgammon Luck versus Skill

Luck versus Skill

Is there really luck in backgammon?

From:   benf
Address:   Melanion90@aol.com
Date:   10 January 2012
Subject:   How do you compare to the Giants?
Forum:   BGonline.org Forums

Think this is a game of luck? Consider this. I roll an opening 3-1. Am I lucky? I would argue that I am not lucky at all! The only reason this roll is "lucky" is because I skillfully play it correctly. When I make my 5 point I create an average equity for my opponent of -.229 and 11.4% anti-jokers. My playing the roll right gave my opponent more unlucky numbers! And I don't think that my using an obviously played opening roll makes this less valid. You know those mid-game plays where you have to figure out your game plan and there is only one right play? If you find and make the right play you give you opponent less lucky numbers, more unlucky numbers and yourself more lucky numbers on your next roll!

Casper van der Tak writes:

Still, I prefer to create my luck with an opening 3-1, over creating it with, say, an opening 2-1. ;-)

Phil Simborg writes:

Yes, many think you are "luckier" to get an opening 3-1 than an opening 2-1, but that is not true at all if, in the long run, you get both rolls an equal number of times and so does your opponent. What if you get an opening 3-1 four times in a row. Is that luck, or is that odds? Some time in the future you might not see a 3-1 opening for a month! It evens out, as any logical, fair-minded person knows, but it only evens out in the long run. Ben's point is clear: the better you play, the more good rolls you will have and the fewer good rolls your opponent gets. And, assuming luck evens out in the long run, the better player will win.

Casper van der Tak writes:

I am afraid that I am not going to live a few thousand years, so I'd rather win the lottery tomorrow than later. And I'd call any favorable short term deviation from the long term average luck. Of course skill influences the long term average, so you could, if you want, say that you make your own odds. And if you want to say that your results improve when you do not focus on whether you are lucky or not, then I agree, but that is more a psychological thing.

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