Forum Archive :
Opening Rolls
Assuming you get the opening roll and play it to it's best advantage,
can there ever be a situation where you're the underdog, after having
gotten the opening roll? This doesn't take into account your opponent
rolling yet.
Arthur
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Tom Keith writes:
According to rollouts I've done with GnuBG (cubeless, 0-ply play),
the worst opening roll is 2-1 with a cubeless equity of +0.0026.
Any time you win the opening roll you have an advantage, though
sometimes it is a very small one.
In match play at double match point (DMP), rolling 4-1 gives a
slightly negative equity (.4986 chance of winning).
Tom
Roll 3-1: Rollout 8/5 6/5 Eq.: +0.1603
0.5526 0.1658 0.0074 - 0.4474 0.1129 0.0053 CL +0.1603
[0.0004 0.0003 0.0001 - 0.0004 0.0003 0.0001 CL 0.0010]
Roll 4-2: Rollout 8/4 6/4 Eq.: +0.1181
0.5371 0.1629 0.0076 - 0.4629 0.1210 0.0055 CL +0.1181
[0.0004 0.0003 0.0001 - 0.0004 0.0003 0.0001 CL 0.0010]
Roll 6-1: Rollout 13/7 8/7 Eq.: +0.1023
0.5352 0.1476 0.0063 - 0.4648 0.1172 0.0049 CL +0.1023
[0.0004 0.0003 0.0001 - 0.0004 0.0003 0.0001 CL 0.0010]
Roll 6-5: Rollout 24/13 Eq.: +0.0611
0.5318 0.1156 0.0056 - 0.4682 0.1199 0.0038 CL +0.0611
[0.0003 0.0003 0.0001 - 0.0003 0.0003 0.0001 CL 0.0009]
Roll 5-3: Rollout 8/3 6/3 Eq.: +0.0611
0.5168 0.1561 0.0079 - 0.4832 0.1306 0.0060 CL +0.0611
[0.0004 0.0003 0.0001 - 0.0004 0.0003 0.0001 CL 0.0010]
Roll 5-4: Rollout 24/20 13/8 Eq.: +0.0211
0.5072 0.1307 0.0061 - 0.4928 0.1254 0.0048 CL +0.0211
[0.0004 0.0003 0.0001 - 0.0004 0.0003 0.0001 CL 0.0010]
Roll 4-3: Rollout 13/10 13/9 Eq.: +0.0137
0.4996 0.1489 0.0065 - 0.5004 0.1336 0.0074 CL +0.0137
[0.0004 0.0003 0.0001 - 0.0004 0.0003 0.0001 CL 0.0011]
Roll 6-4: Rollout 8/2 6/2 Eq.: +0.0119
0.4996 0.1509 0.0076 - 0.5004 0.1396 0.0062 CL +0.0119
[0.0004 0.0003 0.0001 - 0.0004 0.0003 0.0001 CL 0.0010]
Roll 6-2: Rollout 24/18 13/11 Eq.: +0.0108
0.5084 0.1235 0.0055 - 0.4916 0.1297 0.0053 CL +0.0108
[0.0004 0.0003 0.0001 - 0.0004 0.0003 0.0001 CL 0.0010]
Roll 5-1: Rollout 24/23 13/8 Eq.: +0.0100
0.5022 0.1310 0.0055 - 0.4978 0.1262 0.0047 CL +0.0100
[0.0004 0.0003 0.0001 - 0.0004 0.0003 0.0001 CL 0.0010]
Roll 6-3: Rollout 24/18 13/10 Eq.: +0.0094
0.5061 0.1267 0.0058 - 0.4939 0.1299 0.0054 CL +0.0094
[0.0004 0.0003 0.0001 - 0.0004 0.0003 0.0001 CL 0.0010]
Roll 5-2: Rollout 24/22 13/8 Eq.: +0.0075
0.5023 0.1292 0.0055 - 0.4977 0.1273 0.0045 CL +0.0075
[0.0004 0.0003 0.0001 - 0.0004 0.0003 0.0001 CL 0.0010]
Roll 4-1: Rollout 24/23 13/9 Eq.: +0.0044
0.4986 0.1382 0.0057 - 0.5014 0.1308 0.0059 CL +0.0044
[0.0004 0.0003 0.0001 - 0.0004 0.0003 0.0001 CL 0.0010]
Roll 3-2: Rollout 24/21 13/11 Eq.: +0.0038
0.5015 0.1292 0.0060 - 0.4985 0.1286 0.0057 CL +0.0038
[0.0004 0.0003 0.0001 - 0.0004 0.0003 0.0001 CL 0.0010]
Roll 2-1: Rollout 24/23 13/11 Eq.: +0.0026
0.4996 0.1318 0.0055 - 0.5004 0.1282 0.0057 CL +0.0026
[0.0004 0.0003 0.0001 - 0.0004 0.0003 0.0001 CL 0.0010]
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Opening Rolls
- At different match scores (Louis Nardy Pillards, July 2002)
- Average advantage of winning opening roll (Chuck Bower, Oct 1998)
- Choosing a strategy (Daniel Murphy, June 2001)
- Early game rule of thumb (Rich Munitz, Feb 2009)
- Factors to consider (Kit Woolsey, July 1994)
- How computers play (Kit Woolsey, Mar 1995)
- Magriel's Chapter 5 (Hayden Alfano+, May 2006)
- Mloner vs Jellyfish (Kit Woolsey, Dec 1995)
- Nactating a whole game (Nack Ballard+, Jan 2011)
- Nactation (Jim Stutz+, June 2010)
- Nactation overview (Nack Ballard, Oct 2009)
- Nactation--Why use it? (leobueno+, Jan 2011)
- Opening 1's: Split or slot? (Douglas Zare, Dec 2003)
- Opening 21: Rollout (Stick, Mar 2006)
- Opening 21: Split or slot? (Dick Adams+, Dec 2003)
- Opening 32: Rollout (Stick, Feb 2006)
- Opening 43: In GOL online match (Raccoon+, Feb 2004)
- Opening 43: Pros and cons (Stick+, Jan 2006)
- Opening 43: Which split is better? (Peter Backgren+, Aug 2000)
- Opening 43: Which split is better? (Michael J. Zehr+, Mar 1996)
- Opening 51: Rollout (Stick, Feb 2006)
- Opening 52: Merits of splitting (Peter Bell, Apr 1995)
- Opening 53: Magriel's recommendation (George Parker+, July 1997)
- Opening 53: Split to 21? (Alex Zamanian, Aug 2000)
- Opening 53: Why make the three point? (Kit Woolsey+, Feb 1996)
- Opening 6's: Slot the bar point? (Chuck Bower+, Feb 2000)
- Opening 6's: Slot the bar point? (David Montgomery, June 1995)
- Opening 62: Could running be best? (Gary Wong, Sept 1997)
- Opening 62: Split, run, or slot? (Chuck Bower, May 1997)
- Opening 63: Middle Eastern split? (Mark+, Apr 2002)
- Opening 63: Slot the four point? (Dennis Cartwright+, Mar 2002)
- Opening 64: Make the two point? (William Hill+, Jan 1998)
- Opening 64: Make the two point? (Darse Billings, Feb 1995)
- Opening 64: Rollout (Peter Grotrian, Jan 2006)
- Opening 64: Split to 20? (Peter Bell, June 1995)
- Opening 64: Three choices (Brian Sheppard, July 1997)
- Opening 65: Becker on lover's leap (Jeffrey Spiegler+, Aug 1991)
- Opening 65: Computer rankings (Chuck Bower, Jan 1997)
- Opening rolls ranked (Arthur+, Apr 2005)
- Rollouts of opening 21 and replies (Alexander Nitschke, Oct 1997)
- Rollouts of openings (Tom Keith+, Jan 2006)
- Rollouts: Expert Backgammon (Tom Fahland, Aug 1994)
- Rollouts: Jellyfish 3.0 (Midas+, Sept 1997)
- Rollouts: Jellyfish 3.0 level 6 (Chuck Bower, Feb 1999)
- Rollouts: Snowie 4.1 (Rene Cerutti, Apr 2004)
- Slotting the four point (Joe Loria+, Oct 1999)
- Snowie's openers and replies (rcerutti, Feb 1999)
- Splitting versus building (Dave Slayton+, Aug 2000)
- Splitting versus slotting (Daniel Murphy, Apr 2001)
- Splitting versus slotting (Daniel Murphy, Sept 1997)
- Trice's rankings (Marty Storer, Feb 1992)
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