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Forum Archive :
Match Play
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> When should the loser of the opening roll drop if he is leading
> 1away-2away post-Crawford?
Here is a list of rolls that give you positive equity (greater than
50% chance of winning the game) after you have lost the opening roll.
If you roll anything else, you should drop. These values are gathered
from the truncated rollouts here:
http://www.bkgm.com/openings/replies.html#rollouts_of_replies.
They are only approximately correct because truncated rollouts are poor
estimators of absolute equity.
After 2-1: 24/21, 13/11
1-1: .544
2-2: .553
3-1: .522
3-3: .555
4-2: .504
4-4: .602
5-5: .519
6-4: .553
6-6: .633
After 3-1: 8/5, 6/5
1-1: .502
2-2: .502
3-3: .519
6-6: .612
After 3-2: 24/21, 13/11
1-1: .549
2-2: .596
3-1: .508
3-3: .550
4-2: .546
4-4: .601
5-5: .514
6-4: .540
6-6: .612
After 4-1: 24/23, 13/9
1-1: .537
2-2: .549
3-1: .513
3-3: .555
4-4: .609
5-3: .549
5-5: .518
6-2: .549
6-4: .507
6-6: .631
After 4-2: 8/4, 6/4
1-1: .518
2-2: .522
3-3: .516
4-4: .574
6-6: .614
After 4-3: 24/21, 13/9
1-1: .549
2-2: .596
3-1: .501
3-3: .552
4-2: .545
4-4: .621
5-3: .539
5-5: .518
6-2: .539
6-6: .603
After 5-1: 24/23, 13/8
1-1: .542
2-2: .561
3-1: .527
3-3: .558
4-2: .509
4-4: .592
5-5: .518
6-1: .506
6-4: .506
6-6: .634
After 5-2: 24/22, 13/8
1-1: .535
2-2: .552
3-1: .518
3-3: .604
4-2: .501
4-4: .588
5-3: .526
5-5: .598
6-6: .617
After 5-3: 8/3, 6/3
1-1: .546
2-2: .548
3-1: .513
3-3: .551
4-4: .581
6-6: .621
After 5-4: 13/9, 13/8
1-1: .566
2-2: .557
3-1: .520
3-3: .557
4-4: .609
5-3: .546
6-2: .546
6-6: .628
After 6-1: 13/7, 8/7
1-1: .528
2-2: .533
3-3: .537
4-4: .580
After 6-2: 24/18, 13/11
1-1: .577
2-2: .512
3-3: .549
4-4: .560
5-5: .535
6-1: .527
6-4: .532
6-6: .635
After 6-3: 24/18, 13/10
1-1: .581
2-2: .513
3-3: .551
4-4: .553
5-4: .526
5-5: .535
6-1: .528
6-3: .526
6-6: .641
After 6-4: 24/14
1-1: .515
2-1: .514
2-2: .607
3-2: .520
3-3: .529
4-2: .521
4-4: .568
5-2: .517
5-5: .534
6-2: .521
6-6: .616
After 6-5: 24/13
1-1: .503
2-2: .526
3-3: .529
4-4: .564
5-5: .526
6-6: .620
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Gregg Cattanach writes:
I cross-checked my DMP equities for the 2nd roll vs. Tom's list above,
and it's pretty accurate.
I'd just add these: (and they are all really close),
After 51 24/23 13/8 65
After 53 8/3 6/3 55
After 54 13/9 13/8 61
After 54 13/9 13/8 55
I can't really publish the numbers I have because they are a lot of the
basis of Paul and Nack's upcoming book. (And no, I don't know when it's
going to be published).
Gregg C.
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Match Play
- 1-away/1-away: advice from Bernhard Kaiser (Darse Billings, July 1995)
![[Long message]](pics/Long.gif)
![[Recommended reading]](pics/Star2.gif)
- 1-away/1-away: advice from Stick (Stick+, Mar 2007)
![[GammOnLine forum]](pics/GammOnLine.gif)
- 1-away/1-away: and similar scores (Lou Poppler, Aug 1995)
- 2-away/3-away: playing for gammon (Tom Keith, Feb 1996)
- 2-away/4-away: Neil's rule of 80 (Neil Kazaross, June 2004)
- 2-away/4-away: cube strategy (Tom Keith, Dec 1996)
- 2-away/4-away: practical issues (Mark Damish, Jan 1996)
- 2-away/4-away: trailer's initial double (Kit Woolsey, Jan 1996)
- 3-away/4-away: opponent's recube (William C. Bitting+, Feb 1997)
- 3-away/4-away: racing cube (Bill Calton+, Nov 2012)
- 3-away/4-away: tricky cube decision (Kit Woolsey+, July 1994)
- 3-away/4-away: what's the correct equity? (Tom Keith, Sept 1997)
- 4-away/4-away: take/drop point (Gary Wong, Oct 1997)
- 5-away/11-away: redouble to 8 (Gavin Anderson, Oct 1998)
- 7-away/11-away: volatile recube decision (Kit Woolsey, May 1997)
- Both too good and not good enough to double (Paul Epstein+, Sept 2007)
- Comparing 2-away/3-away and 2-away/4-away (Douglas Zare, Mar 2002)
- Crawford rule (Chuck Bower, May 1998)
- Crawford rule (Kit Woolsey, Mar 1997)
- Crawford rule--Why just one game? (Walter Trice, Jan 2000)
- Crawford rule--history (Michael Strato, Jan 2001)
- Delayed mandatory double (tem_sat+, Oct 2010)
- Delayed mandatory double (Donald Kahn+, Dec 1997)
- Doubling when facing a gammon loss (Kit Woolsey, Jan 1999)
- Doubling when opponent is 2-away (David Montgomery, Dec 1997)
- Doubling when you're an underdog (Stein Kulseth, Dec 1997)
- Doubling window with gammons (Jason Lee+, Jan 2009)
- Free drop (Ian Shaw, May 1999)
- Free drop (Willis Elias+, Oct 1994)
- Gammonless takepoint formula (Adam Stocks, June 2002)
- Going for gammon when opp has free drop (Kit Woolsey, Jan 1998)
- Going for gammon when opp has free drop (Kit Woolsey, Apr 1995)
- Holland rule (Neil Kazaross, Apr 2010)
- Holland rule (Kit Woolsey, Dec 1994)
- Leading 2-away with good gammon chances (Douglas Zare, Feb 2004)
- Match play 101 (Max Urban+, Oct 2009)
- Matches to a set number of games (Tom Keith+, Oct 1998)
- Playing when opponent has free drop (Gilles Baudrillard+, Dec 1996)
- Post-crawford doubling (Scott Steiner+, Feb 2004)
- Post-crawford doubling (Maik Stiebler+, Dec 2002)
- Post-crawford doubling (Gus+, Sept 2002)
- Post-crawford mistakes (Rob Adams, Sept 2007)
- Post-crawford/2-away: too good to double (Robert-Jan Veldhuizen, July 2004)
- Slotting when opponent has free drop (onur alan+, Apr 2013)
- Take points (fiore+, Feb 2005)
- Tips to improve cube handling (Lucky Jim+, Jan 2010)
- When to free drop (Dan Pelton+, Oct 2006)
- When to free drop (Tom Keith+, July 2005)
- When to free drop (Gregg Cattanach, Dec 2004)
- When to free drop (Kit Woolsey, Feb 1998)
- When to free drop (Chuck Bower, Jan 1998)
- Which format most favors the favorite? (Daniel Murphy+, Jan 2006)
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