Match Equities

Forum Archive : Match Equities

 
ME Table: Kazaross-XG2

From:   neilkaz
Address:   neilkaz@earthlink.net
Date:   25 August 2011
Subject:   How I created Kazaross/XG2 MET
Forum:   BGonline.org Forums

We finalized the XG2 neural net a few months prior to release so I felt
confident in using XG2 (which was testing to be over 0.4 PR stronger than
XG1 on 3 ply) to RO a new MET.  Since cube play is so important, I wanted
to use something stronger than just 3 ply for cube and I was delighted when
XGR cube tested to be a bit stronger than the slower 4 ply cube.

Starting from the beginning (of course) I rolled out all scores in a 9 pt
match 100,000 times using XG2 3 ply play/XGR cube (Normal SI). I used XGR+
cube for post Crawford even scores, since XGR+ cube did a better and more
accurate job of playing on for a G after a great opening sequence than did
XGR cube.

Since I noted very little difference between this table (K-XG2) and the
Rockwell-Kazaross MET in the longer matches (or any other scores) I felt
confident stopping my work and just using R-K for matches from 10 to 25
points long.

At some point I may extend my rollouts to longer matches or extend the
early scores to 400,000 games.

.. neilkaz ..

Kazaross-XG2 Match Equity Table

Not Post-Crawford

      -1      -2      -3      -4      -5      -6      -7      -8
 -1  .50000  .67736  .75076  .81436  .84179  .88731  .90724  .93250
 -2  .32264  .50000  .59947  .66870  .74359  .79940  .84225  .87539
 -3  .24924  .40053  .50000  .57150  .64795  .71123  .76209  .80468
 -4  .18564  .33130  .42850  .50000  .57732  .64285  .69924  .74577
 -5  .15821  .25641  .35205  .42268  .50000  .56635  .62638  .67786
 -6  .11269  .20060  .28877  .35715  .43365  .50000  .56261  .61636
 -7  .09276  .15775  .23791  .30076  .37362  .43739  .50000  .55480
 -8  .06750  .12461  .19532  .25423  .32214  .38364  .44520  .50000
 -9  .05598  .09803  .15983  .21201  .27460  .33213  .39146  .44558
-10  .040725 .076966 .129362 .175941 .232945 .286943 .343717 .396282
-11  .033558 .060689 .105583 .146045 .197268 .246573 .299791 .350101
-12  .024466 .047530 .085169 .120859 .166346 .211366 .260946 .308644
-13  .020155 .037505 .069298 .099767 .140066 .180431 .225879 .270553
-14  .014727 .029299 .055574 .081960 .117134 .153352 .194797 .236407
-15  .012107 .023113 .045069 .067343 .097987 .130001 .167434 .205603
-16  .00886  .01804  .03601  .05505  .08153  .10979  .14341  .17842
-17  .00727  .01420  .02907  .04501  .06777  .09244  .12239  .15422
-18  .00533  .01107  .02313  .03659  .05603  .07754  .10409  .13286
-19  .00437  .00871  .01861  .02979  .04633  .06492  .08829  .11411
-20  .00321  .00678  .01478  .02411  .03811  .05417  .07465  .09770
-21  .00263  .00534  .01186  .01956  .03136  .04512  .06298  .08342
-22  .00193  .00415  .00938  .01578  .02568  .03746  .05297  .07102
-23  .00158  .00325  .00752  .01274  .02104  .03106  .04447  .06032
-24  .00116  .00254  .00593  .01025  .01717  .02568  .03724  .05109
-25  .00095  .00198  .00473  .00826  .01400  .02121  .03113  .04318

      -9      -10     -11     -12     -13     -14     -15     -16
 -1  .94402  .959275 .966442 .975534 .979845 .985273 .987893 .99114
 -2  .90197  .923034 .939311 .952470 .962495 .970701 .976887 .98196
 -3  .84017  .870638 .894417 .914831 .930702 .944426 .954931 .96399
 -4  .78799  .824059 .853955 .879141 .900233 .918040 .932657 .94495
 -5  .72540  .767055 .802732 .833654 .859934 .882866 .902013 .91847
 -6  .66787  .713057 .753427 .788634 .819569 .846648 .869999 .89021
 -7  .60854  .656283 .700209 .739054 .774121 .805203 .832566 .85659
 -8  .55442  .603718 .649899 .691356 .729447 .763593 .794397 .82158
 -9  .50000  .550196 .597926 .641481 .682119 .718927 .752814 .78301
-10  .449804 .500000 .548547 .593459 .635880 .674830 .711113 .74371
-11  .402074 .451453 .500000 .545552 .589242 .629736 .667927 .70303
-12  .358519 .406541 .454448 .500000 .544068 .585701 .625259 .66178
-13  .317881 .364120 .410758 .455932 .500000 .541943 .582545 .62036
-14  .281073 .325170 .370264 .414299 .458057 .500000 .540750 .57942
-15  .247186 .288887 .332073 .374741 .417455 .459250 .500000 .53916
-16  .21699  .25629  .29697  .33822  .37964  .42058  .46084  .50000
-17  .18963  .22625  .26470  .30390  .34381  .38366  .42321  .46204
-18  .16517  .19907  .23506  .27222  .31034  .34883  .38739  .42559
-19  .14338  .17457  .20802  .24297  .27919  .31609  .35341  .39071
-20  .12409  .15259  .18352  .21619  .25037  .28552  .32141  .35759
-21  .10706  .13297  .16138  .19174  .22381  .25710  .29138  .32624
-22  .09209  .11552  .14151  .16956  .19946  .23083  .26336  .29677
-23  .07902  .10009  .12371  .14949  .17724  .20661  .23735  .26916
-24  .06760  .08647  .10786  .13144  .15705  .18441  .21331  .24343
-25  .05770  .07450  .09378  .11524  .13877  .16414  .19117  .21954

      -17    -18    -19    -20    -21    -22    -23    -24    -25
 -1  .99273 .99467 .99563 .99679 .99737 .99807 .99842 .99884 .99905
 -2  .98580 .98893 .99129 .99322 .99466 .99585 .99675 .99746 .99802
 -3  .97093 .97687 .98139 .98522 .98814 .99062 .99248 .99407 .99527
 -4  .95499 .96341 .97021 .97589 .98044 .98422 .98726 .98975 .99174
 -5  .93223 .94397 .95367 .96189 .96864 .97432 .97896 .98283 .98600
 -6  .90756 .92246 .93508 .94583 .95488 .96254 .96894 .97432 .97879
 -7  .87761 .89591 .91171 .92535 .93702 .94703 .95553 .96276 .96887
 -8  .84578 .86714 .88589 .90230 .91658 .92898 .93968 .94891 .95682
 -9  .81037 .83483 .85662 .87591 .89294 .90791 .92098 .93240 .94230
-10  .77375 .80093 .82543 .84741 .86703 .88448 .89991 .91353 .92550
-11  .73530 .76494 .79198 .81648 .83862 .85849 .87629 .89214 .90622
-12  .69610 .72778 .75703 .78381 .80826 .83044 .85051 .86856 .88476
-13  .65619 .68966 .72081 .74963 .77619 .80054 .82276 .84295 .86123
-14  .61634 .65117 .68391 .71448 .74290 .76917 .79339 .81559 .83586
-15  .57679 .61261 .64659 .67859 .70862 .73664 .76265 .78669 .80883
-16  .53796 .57441 .60929 .64241 .67376 .70323 .73084 .75657 .78046
-17  .50000 .53676 .57222 .60618 .63856 .66925 .69822 .72542 .75087
-18  .46324 .50000 .53574 .57023 .60336 .63501 .66510 .69356 .72038
-19  .42778 .46426 .50000 .53475 .56838 .60073 .63171 .66122 .68921
-20  .39382 .42977 .46525 .50000 .53387 .56667 .59830 .62864 .65760
-21  .36144 .39664 .43162 .46613 .50000 .53303 .56508 .59603 .62576
-22  .33075 .36499 .39927 .43333 .46697 .50000 .53226 .56360 .59391
-23  .30178 .33490 .36829 .40170 .43492 .46774 .50000 .53153 .56221
-24  .27458 .30644 .33878 .37136 .40397 .43640 .46847 .50000 .53086
-25  .24913 .27962 .31079 .34240 .37424 .40609 .43779 .46914 .50000

Post-Crawford

      -1      -2      -3      -4      -5      -6      -7      -8
PC   .500000 .48803  .32264  .31002  .19012  .18072  .11559  .10906

      -9      -10     -11     -12     -13     -14     -15     -16
PC   .06953  .065161 .042069 .039060 .025371 .023428 .015304 .01405

      -17    -18    -19    -20    -21    -22    -23    -24    -25
PC   .00924 .00842 .00556 .00505 .00336 .00303 .00203 .00182 .00123
 
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Match Equities

Constructing a match equity table  (Walter Trice, Apr 2000) 
Does it matter which match equity table you use?  (Klaus Evers+, Nov 2005)  [GammOnLine forum]
Does it matter which match equity table you use?  (Achim Mueller+, Dec 2003) 
Does it matter which match equity table you use?  (Chuck Bower+, Sept 2001)  [GammOnLine forum] [Long message]
ME Table: Big Brother  (Peter Fankhauser, July 1996) 
ME Table: Dunstan  (Ian Dunstan+, Aug 2004)  [GammOnLine forum]
ME Table: Escoffery  (David Escoffery, Nov 1991) 
ME Table: Friedman  (Elliott C Winslow, Oct 1991) 
ME Table: Kazaross  (Neil Kazaross, Dec 2003)  [GammOnLine forum]
ME Table: Kazaross-XG2  (neilkaz, Aug 2011) 
ME Table: Rockwell-Kazaross  (Chuck Bower+, June 2010) 
ME Table: Snowie  (Chase, Apr 2002) 
ME Table: Snowie  (Harald Retter, Aug 1998) 
ME Table: Woolsey  (Raccoon, Apr 2006) 
ME Table: Woolsey  (Kit Woolsey, May 1994) 
ME Table: Woolsey  (William R. Tallmadge, Jan 1994) 
ME Table: Zadeh  (Jørn Thyssen, Mar 2004)  [GammOnLine forum]
ME Table: Zorba  (Robert-Jan Veldhuizen+, Dec 2003) 
ME at 1-away/2-away (crawford)  (Fabrice Liardet+, Nov 2007)  [GammOnLine forum]
ME at 1-away/2-away (crawford)  (Ian Shaw+, Apr 2003)  [GammOnLine forum]
Match equities--an alternate view  (Durf Freund, Oct 1994) 
Neil's new numbers  (neilkaz, Aug 2011) 
Neil's numbers  (Kit Woolsey+, Oct 1994) 
On calculating match equity tables  (Neil Kazaross, July 2004)  [GammOnLine forum]
Turner formula  (Gregg Cattanach, Feb 2003) 
Turner formula  (Stephen Turner, June 1994) 
Using a match equity table  (Michael J. Zehr, June 1992) 
Value of free drop  (Neil Kazaross, Oct 2002)  [GammOnLine forum]
Which match equity table is best?  (Martin Krainer+, Oct 2003) 
Which match equity table is best?  (Ian Shaw+, Dec 2001) 
Why use a match equity table?  (Kit Woolsey, Feb 1999) 
Worth memorizing?  (Alef Rosenbaum+, Feb 2003) 

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