Forum Archive :
Match Equities
We finalized the XG2 neural net a few months prior to release so I felt
confident in using XG2 (which was testing to be over 0.4 PR stronger than
XG1 on 3 ply) to RO a new MET. Since cube play is so important, I wanted
to use something stronger than just 3 ply for cube and I was delighted when
XGR cube tested to be a bit stronger than the slower 4 ply cube.
Starting from the beginning (of course) I rolled out all scores in a 9 pt
match 100,000 times using XG2 3 ply play/XGR cube (Normal SI). I used XGR+
cube for post Crawford even scores, since XGR+ cube did a better and more
accurate job of playing on for a G after a great opening sequence than did
XGR cube.
Since I noted very little difference between this table (K-XG2) and the
Rockwell-Kazaross MET in the longer matches (or any other scores) I felt
confident stopping my work and just using R-K for matches from 10 to 25
points long.
At some point I may extend my rollouts to longer matches or extend the
early scores to 400,000 games.
.. neilkaz ..
Kazaross-XG2 Match Equity Table
Not Post-Crawford
-1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 -8
-1 .50000 .67736 .75076 .81436 .84179 .88731 .90724 .93250
-2 .32264 .50000 .59947 .66870 .74359 .79940 .84225 .87539
-3 .24924 .40053 .50000 .57150 .64795 .71123 .76209 .80468
-4 .18564 .33130 .42850 .50000 .57732 .64285 .69924 .74577
-5 .15821 .25641 .35205 .42268 .50000 .56635 .62638 .67786
-6 .11269 .20060 .28877 .35715 .43365 .50000 .56261 .61636
-7 .09276 .15775 .23791 .30076 .37362 .43739 .50000 .55480
-8 .06750 .12461 .19532 .25423 .32214 .38364 .44520 .50000
-9 .05598 .09803 .15983 .21201 .27460 .33213 .39146 .44558
-10 .040725 .076966 .129362 .175941 .232945 .286943 .343717 .396282
-11 .033558 .060689 .105583 .146045 .197268 .246573 .299791 .350101
-12 .024466 .047530 .085169 .120859 .166346 .211366 .260946 .308644
-13 .020155 .037505 .069298 .099767 .140066 .180431 .225879 .270553
-14 .014727 .029299 .055574 .081960 .117134 .153352 .194797 .236407
-15 .012107 .023113 .045069 .067343 .097987 .130001 .167434 .205603
-16 .00886 .01804 .03601 .05505 .08153 .10979 .14341 .17842
-17 .00727 .01420 .02907 .04501 .06777 .09244 .12239 .15422
-18 .00533 .01107 .02313 .03659 .05603 .07754 .10409 .13286
-19 .00437 .00871 .01861 .02979 .04633 .06492 .08829 .11411
-20 .00321 .00678 .01478 .02411 .03811 .05417 .07465 .09770
-21 .00263 .00534 .01186 .01956 .03136 .04512 .06298 .08342
-22 .00193 .00415 .00938 .01578 .02568 .03746 .05297 .07102
-23 .00158 .00325 .00752 .01274 .02104 .03106 .04447 .06032
-24 .00116 .00254 .00593 .01025 .01717 .02568 .03724 .05109
-25 .00095 .00198 .00473 .00826 .01400 .02121 .03113 .04318
-9 -10 -11 -12 -13 -14 -15 -16
-1 .94402 .959275 .966442 .975534 .979845 .985273 .987893 .99114
-2 .90197 .923034 .939311 .952470 .962495 .970701 .976887 .98196
-3 .84017 .870638 .894417 .914831 .930702 .944426 .954931 .96399
-4 .78799 .824059 .853955 .879141 .900233 .918040 .932657 .94495
-5 .72540 .767055 .802732 .833654 .859934 .882866 .902013 .91847
-6 .66787 .713057 .753427 .788634 .819569 .846648 .869999 .89021
-7 .60854 .656283 .700209 .739054 .774121 .805203 .832566 .85659
-8 .55442 .603718 .649899 .691356 .729447 .763593 .794397 .82158
-9 .50000 .550196 .597926 .641481 .682119 .718927 .752814 .78301
-10 .449804 .500000 .548547 .593459 .635880 .674830 .711113 .74371
-11 .402074 .451453 .500000 .545552 .589242 .629736 .667927 .70303
-12 .358519 .406541 .454448 .500000 .544068 .585701 .625259 .66178
-13 .317881 .364120 .410758 .455932 .500000 .541943 .582545 .62036
-14 .281073 .325170 .370264 .414299 .458057 .500000 .540750 .57942
-15 .247186 .288887 .332073 .374741 .417455 .459250 .500000 .53916
-16 .21699 .25629 .29697 .33822 .37964 .42058 .46084 .50000
-17 .18963 .22625 .26470 .30390 .34381 .38366 .42321 .46204
-18 .16517 .19907 .23506 .27222 .31034 .34883 .38739 .42559
-19 .14338 .17457 .20802 .24297 .27919 .31609 .35341 .39071
-20 .12409 .15259 .18352 .21619 .25037 .28552 .32141 .35759
-21 .10706 .13297 .16138 .19174 .22381 .25710 .29138 .32624
-22 .09209 .11552 .14151 .16956 .19946 .23083 .26336 .29677
-23 .07902 .10009 .12371 .14949 .17724 .20661 .23735 .26916
-24 .06760 .08647 .10786 .13144 .15705 .18441 .21331 .24343
-25 .05770 .07450 .09378 .11524 .13877 .16414 .19117 .21954
-17 -18 -19 -20 -21 -22 -23 -24 -25
-1 .99273 .99467 .99563 .99679 .99737 .99807 .99842 .99884 .99905
-2 .98580 .98893 .99129 .99322 .99466 .99585 .99675 .99746 .99802
-3 .97093 .97687 .98139 .98522 .98814 .99062 .99248 .99407 .99527
-4 .95499 .96341 .97021 .97589 .98044 .98422 .98726 .98975 .99174
-5 .93223 .94397 .95367 .96189 .96864 .97432 .97896 .98283 .98600
-6 .90756 .92246 .93508 .94583 .95488 .96254 .96894 .97432 .97879
-7 .87761 .89591 .91171 .92535 .93702 .94703 .95553 .96276 .96887
-8 .84578 .86714 .88589 .90230 .91658 .92898 .93968 .94891 .95682
-9 .81037 .83483 .85662 .87591 .89294 .90791 .92098 .93240 .94230
-10 .77375 .80093 .82543 .84741 .86703 .88448 .89991 .91353 .92550
-11 .73530 .76494 .79198 .81648 .83862 .85849 .87629 .89214 .90622
-12 .69610 .72778 .75703 .78381 .80826 .83044 .85051 .86856 .88476
-13 .65619 .68966 .72081 .74963 .77619 .80054 .82276 .84295 .86123
-14 .61634 .65117 .68391 .71448 .74290 .76917 .79339 .81559 .83586
-15 .57679 .61261 .64659 .67859 .70862 .73664 .76265 .78669 .80883
-16 .53796 .57441 .60929 .64241 .67376 .70323 .73084 .75657 .78046
-17 .50000 .53676 .57222 .60618 .63856 .66925 .69822 .72542 .75087
-18 .46324 .50000 .53574 .57023 .60336 .63501 .66510 .69356 .72038
-19 .42778 .46426 .50000 .53475 .56838 .60073 .63171 .66122 .68921
-20 .39382 .42977 .46525 .50000 .53387 .56667 .59830 .62864 .65760
-21 .36144 .39664 .43162 .46613 .50000 .53303 .56508 .59603 .62576
-22 .33075 .36499 .39927 .43333 .46697 .50000 .53226 .56360 .59391
-23 .30178 .33490 .36829 .40170 .43492 .46774 .50000 .53153 .56221
-24 .27458 .30644 .33878 .37136 .40397 .43640 .46847 .50000 .53086
-25 .24913 .27962 .31079 .34240 .37424 .40609 .43779 .46914 .50000
Post-Crawford
-1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 -8
PC .500000 .48803 .32264 .31002 .19012 .18072 .11559 .10906
-9 -10 -11 -12 -13 -14 -15 -16
PC .06953 .065161 .042069 .039060 .025371 .023428 .015304 .01405
-17 -18 -19 -20 -21 -22 -23 -24 -25
PC .00924 .00842 .00556 .00505 .00336 .00303 .00203 .00182 .00123
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Match Equities
- Constructing a match equity table (Walter Trice, Apr 2000)
- Does it matter which match equity table you use? (Klaus Evers+, Nov 2005)
- Does it matter which match equity table you use? (Achim Mueller+, Dec 2003)
- Does it matter which match equity table you use? (Chuck Bower+, Sept 2001)
- ME Table: Big Brother (Peter Fankhauser, July 1996)
- ME Table: Dunstan (Ian Dunstan+, Aug 2004)
- ME Table: Escoffery (David Escoffery, Nov 1991)
- ME Table: Friedman (Elliott C Winslow, Oct 1991)
- ME Table: Kazaross (Neil Kazaross, Dec 2003)
- ME Table: Kazaross-XG2 (neilkaz, Aug 2011)
- ME Table: Rockwell-Kazaross (Chuck Bower+, June 2010)
- ME Table: Snowie (Chase, Apr 2002)
- ME Table: Snowie (Harald Retter, Aug 1998)
- ME Table: Woolsey (Raccoon, Apr 2006)
- ME Table: Woolsey (Kit Woolsey, May 1994)
- ME Table: Woolsey (William R. Tallmadge, Jan 1994)
- ME Table: Zadeh (Jørn Thyssen, Mar 2004)
- ME Table: Zorba (Robert-Jan Veldhuizen+, Dec 2003)
- ME at 1-away/2-away (crawford) (Fabrice Liardet+, Nov 2007)
- ME at 1-away/2-away (crawford) (Ian Shaw+, Apr 2003)
- Match equities--an alternate view (Durf Freund, Oct 1994)
- Neil's new numbers (neilkaz, Aug 2011)
- Neil's numbers (Kit Woolsey+, Oct 1994)
- On calculating match equity tables (Neil Kazaross, July 2004)
- Turner formula (Gregg Cattanach, Feb 2003)
- Turner formula (Stephen Turner, June 1994)
- Using a match equity table (Michael J. Zehr, June 1992)
- Value of free drop (Neil Kazaross, Oct 2002)
- Which match equity table is best? (Martin Krainer+, Oct 2003)
- Which match equity table is best? (Ian Shaw+, Dec 2001)
- Why use a match equity table? (Kit Woolsey, Feb 1999)
- Worth memorizing? (Alef Rosenbaum+, Feb 2003)
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